Miscellaneous News

iewgnem

Junior Member
Registered Member
so he is abandoning his clan to their fates? very taboo for both Middle Eastern cultures and a family dynasty.
He basically transferred power without any death and destruction, what more do you think he can do?
Nobody wanted to fight after 10 years of civil war, including his "clan"
Do you think Ukraine with it's entire male population wiped out is better?
 

Sardaukar20

Captain
Registered Member
Yeah. China doesn't get caught up with this sentimental stuff. And now it shows why its like this.

As I said in the other thread, Israel isn't some superpower. The reason it looks strong is because it has incompetent arab neighbours it can statpad against. In fact now it kinda makes sense why the west always causes trouble in the middle east militarily and not other places. Its basically the perfect place to spread military propaganda. You got countries that look good on paper but actually suck. So you can basically go there and kick ass without much threat of getting hurt.

The west used to have adventures in east asia. But we all know why they don't anymore lol
You've basically summed up the wisdom of China's non-interventionist policy. Looking beyond the incompetent fools like Assad. The Middle East and a big part of the Muslim World is simply a mess. They scream and cry about Palestine but when the Syrian War reignites, they instantly returned to their tribal and sectarian feud. They feel entitled to cry for international help, but when it suits their internal agenda, they'll betray anyone anytime.

Let's take Iran and Hezbollah as an example. They've spent plenty of treasure and blood to fight for the Palestinian cause. Oct 7th, 2023 was supposed to unite Muslims from around the globe. But come the end of 2024, Hamas and Sunnis from all over the world are demanding for Iranian and Hezbollah Shia blood all over again. To all those entitled pro-Palestine fanboys who cried about China's "inaction". There is your answer as to why China should never intervene in any crisis in the Middle East. China should only do humanitarian aid at most, and that's it.
 
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Randomuser

Senior Member
Registered Member
You've basically summed up the wisdom of China's non-interventionist policy. Looking beyond the incompetent fools like Assad. The Middle East and a big part of the Muslim World is simply a mess. They scream and cry about Palestine but when the Syrian War reignites, they go instantly back into their tribal and sectarian feud. They feel entitled to cry for international help, but when it suits their internal agenda, they'll betray anyone anytime.

Let's take Iran and Hezbollah as an example. They've spent plenty of treasure and blood to fight for the Palestinian cause. Oct 7 was supposed to unite Muslims from around the globe. But come the end of 2024, Hamas, and Sunnis from all over the world are demanding for Iranian and Hezbollah Shia blood all over again. To all those entitled pro-Palestine fanboys who cried about China's "inaction". There is your answer as to why China should never intervene in any crisis in the Middle East. China should only do humanitarian aid at most, and that's it.
When Hamas attacked Israel I was thinking surely they must have some master plan or strategic reason to do this?

Turns out they just thought they could attack coz they felt like it and thought they could get away with it like someone bailing them out when things got too tough. That all this virtue signaling will somehow unite the world to defeat the ultimate villain Thanos-I mean Israel coz they are the good guys. Btw Thanos technically won the first time coz like Israel he was smarter about it.

I dont even know how people think like this. But today I learn taking proper logical thinking that countries like China or US/Israel (behind the scenes) is something we take for granted. Most places have no such thing. That's why they are suckers being played all the time. They are impulsive, emotional, lack self accountability etc.
 

iewgnem

Junior Member
Registered Member
When Hamas attacked Israel I was thinking surely they must have some master plan or strategic reason to do this?

Turns out they just thought they could attack coz they felt like it and thought they could get away with it like someone bailing them out when things got too tough. That all this virtue signaling will somehow unite the world to defeat the ultimate villain Thanos-I mean Israel coz they are the good guys. Btw Thanos technically won the first time coz like Israel he was smarter about it.

I dont even know how people think like this. But today I learn taking proper logical thinking that countries like China or US/Israel (behind the scenes) is something we take for granted. Most places have no such thing. That's why they are suckers being played all the time. They are impulsive, emotional, lack self accountability etc.
That's like asking why PLA kept attacking Japaneses forces and provoked them into Nanjing massacre.
At the surface level Hamas responded to Israel kidnapping Palestinians at their holy site, that's just fact.

They probably don't have a deeper strategy, just like PLA didn't plot to have Japan attack Pearl, but the result is Israel's entire path to normalization of status collapsed, the entire "rule based international order" narrative collapsed along with ICC credibility, Red Sea is under indefinite blockade, cost of living crisis in Europe is leading to multiple government collapse in EU and Trump coming to power in US, Trump will then in turn cause a sequence of events that can potentially lead to US inability to fund Israel and Palestinian victory.

China also didn't tell Japan to attack the US, but China fighting made it necessary for Japan to do so. History has never been 1 dimensional.
 

Sardaukar20

Captain
Registered Member
I don't particularly care to navel-gaze at the specifics of the Syrian government or Iran or Russia's failings in this humanitarian debacle when there are seismic consequences for China itself that may not be immediately apparent to many. It's bad news for China, to put it plainly, if the Syrian government has truly fallen to this lot.

It's up there as one of the biggest losers of this Salafi-Jihadist takeover and I don't say this lightly. I expect the Turkish-backed jihadist contingent to ultimately come out on top in the claim for the Syrian government's former territory because they have the full undivided external resources and support of Turkey and as such this following analysis will be assessing through that scenario. One of the major constituent factions in the jihadist coalition set to take over Syria is the Uyghur jihadist terrorists, who were basically given the role of Wagner and the British Empire Gurkas, carving a bloodbath through whichever ethnic or religious civilian population the jihadist coalition unleashed them on. All of these deeply radicalized groups were contained in Idlib and now they have most of the country to themselves, including all the military materiel and resources (including the exploitation of Syrian oil just like how ISIS overtook Iraqi oil revenue) that the Syrian government, which has seemingly evaporated, will leave behind. Even if China can somehow negotiate with this "not-Al-Qaeda" government to kick those Uyghur jihadist factions to the side, which is both a hard task diplomatically and even harder to put any faith in if there is an agreement (especially if the West subsidizes the new regime in return for requiring its hostility towards China). The only agreement that China could trust is if they disappeared off the face of the earth and I doubt there is any chance China could convince the "not-Al-Qaeda" regime to put their Uyghur jihadist co-belligerents that they've been fighting with for a decade to the shooting squad.

Another thing is that this new regime has been incidentally hugging the Turkish border for a reason, they're Turkey's creation and Erdogan's blood transfusions to the jihadists have been the only reason why they exist and why the Syrian army hasn't been able to recapture Idlib. This new offensive, more successful than I'd say even Turkey and their jihadists could have expected, is entirely the doing of Erdogan. The Turkey angle is another reason why China is among those set to lose the most. This is a Turkish checkmate for China: China had deliberately been continually allocating billions in funding for Syria to develop the country for the BRI in spite of the fact that the country has been in war-torn anarchy for a decade. The reason why China stubborning kept up with this is because developing an Iran-Iraq-Syria BRI route will bypass Turkey. There is a reason why Erdogan has been clamoring about BRICS and SCO for years and yet China and Russia have tacitly shut the door to it, they understand that Turkey under Erdogan and under NATO alignment is fundamentally unreliable. This means that China's BRI in the Middle East will either have to pass through a Turkish-aligned "not-Al-Qaeda" Syrian regime or through Turkey to reach Europe.

Turkey had been pushing for a "Middle Corridor" of Turkmenistan-Azerbaijan-Turkey BRI route because while this would be satisfactory for China's BRI goals, war-torn countries like Iraq and Syria were actually still preferable for China compared to staking its vital trade route (which was designed as an Eurasian lifeline in case of maritime blockade) within a literal NATO territory like Turkey. Furthermore, the Middle Corridor is Erdogan's grand strategy of using China's trans-national infrastructure project to parasitically bind Azerbaijan and the Central Asian countries economically to Turkey for the sake of his "Pan-Turkic" fantasy. This fantasy will be given a boost for Erdogan's ego now that he will seemingly subordinate Syria as a Turkish lackey and it will now be something that China will be potentially entrapped to build for Erdogan. Extending the scope of Turkish influence into Central Asia through the Middle Corridor BRI route will inevitably also advance its cause of infiltrating Xinjiang. Still a fantasy so long as China maintains vigilance on its end but still it is undeniable this regional shift will advance it unless the "not-Al-Qaeda" regime breaks with Turkey and eliminates the Uyghur jihadist terrorists, which is quite unlikely. In any case, the Central-Asia/Pakistan-Iran-Iraq BRI option has been sunk for China and building the Middle Corridor is now seemingly a choice of no choice.

As for the West, it has seen how Salafi-Jihadists will target it and I doubt they will make the same mistake. Likely, they'll dangle funding and recognition of the new regime if the jihadists point their sights elsewhere. Trump's first presidency was when the Xinjiang atrocity propaganda was fully adopted by the US as state policy and so I expect he'd have quite some synergy of aims with Erdogan. China will do its utmost to make the best of the situation but this is indeed an unpleasant outcome for China.
What's happened has happened. Now China and Russia has to deal with it with renewed wisdom and ruthlessness. Erdogan will extend his hand out once again. Do some necessary deals with him, but don't trust him to honor his side of the bargain. Anticipate his backstab at anytime.

All must assume that Erdogan's Pan-Turkic Takfiri crusade will eventually come for Russia and China. It's definitely in the keen interest of Erdogan and the US to see that happen. So it's time to seriously strengthen the CSTO, SCO, and BRI Security counter terror operations and weed out the incompetent. This is much easier said than done, but something must be done anyway.

Islamic extremism in the neighborhood needs to be addressed in a new way. The War on Terror, Israel, and Syria have proven that brute force alone is never the solution. There are some lessons to be learnt from the Xinjiang experience. There needs to be a combination of measured force and poverty alleviation at the same time. Its still not the perfect solution, but until something better arrives, this is the best way forward. Again, much easier said than done because Russia is not gonna change it's approach overnight.
 
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Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
What's happened has happened. Now China and Russia has to deal with it with wisdom and ruthlessness. Erdogan will extend his hand out once again. Do some necessary deals with him, but don't trust him to honor his side of the bargain. Anticipate his backstab at anytime.

All must assume that Erdogan's Pan-Turkic Takfiri crusade will eventually come for Russia and China. It's definitely in the keen interest of the Erdogan and the US for that to happen. So it's time to seriously strengthen the CSTO, SCO, and BRI Security counter terror operations and weed out the incompetent. This is much easier said than done, but something must be done anyway.

Islamic extremism in the neighborhood needs to be addressed in a new way. The War on Terror, Israel, and Syria have proven that brute force alone is never the solution. There are some lessons to be learnt from the Xinjiang experience. There needs to be a combination of measured force and poverty alleviation at the same time. Its still not the perfect solution, but until something better arrives, this is the better way forward. Again, this is much easier said than done, because Russia is not gonna change it's approach overnight.
Meh Russians started changing their world view a few years into the Ukraine War when they realized who really are the superpowers in this would and can keep them afloat, Iran will have to learn that lesson in their own way. Their run of luck with getting good leaders like Soleimani and beating up on weaker opponents to form the resistance crescent gave them an overinflated opinion of themselves. When they finally start to play geopolitics at the big table and face the pro players they will gain a more accurate understanding of themselves.

As for China aiding Syria let's do a thought experiment. Suppose Russia is not busy with Ukraine and is able to direct as much resource to help Assad as last time there was a civil war. Could Russia have mobilized fast enough to save Syrian government when they're putting up so little resistance that they lose in 11 days? I think that's questionable at best. If Russia who's been operating in Syria for much longer and has much easier time force projecting there can't do it given the extremely short time frame, what difference could China make? Even if PLANMC set sail on a 075 on the very first day of fighting they wouldn't have arrived by today anyway.

You can't help someone who don't want to help themselves, else it will just be like what the Americans experienced in Afghanistan.
 
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ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
Meh Russians started changing their world view a few years into the Ukraine War when they realized who really are the superpowers in this would and can keep them afloat, Iran will have to learn that lesson in their own way. Their run of luck with getting good leaders like Soleimani and beating up on weaker opponents to form the resistance crescent gave them an overinflated opinion of themselves. When they finally start to play geopolitics at the big table and face the pro players they will gain a more accurate understanding of themselves.
I want to agree, but I don't think the Russians have learned this. Putin and the leadership certainly understood this when they flew the entire Kremlin to China for the last presidential summit, but I don't think the lesson has entered the popular consciousness. Russian appear to still operate by and large on the principle that China makes plastic junk.

One could say "who cares what the peasants think?" and there's a large degree of truth to that, but I'd still like to see the idea take root.
 
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