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Iracundus

New Member
Registered Member
Trump will get the biggest of surprises when he comes out attacking China.

Just wait and watch. China hasn't really retaliated to the US war because it's a lose-lose situation. But when someone asks for a beating you can only oblige and respond in kind.

Imagine some random "disruptions" and "delays" from Apple's Chinese suppliers and their revenue actually falls by a 10% in a Quarter. Their whole stonk market would probably collapse and by then you would have some money suits going into the White House and "educating" Trump on how to behave

China could easily do this, and many other things that people haven't even thought about. The only reason it hasn't done such yet, is as I said, because it's a lose-lose proposition. But if Trump wants to play,

Let's play

Trump is not only breath takingly stupid, but he also has a strong oppositional streak if one looks at his history. The more you tell him he should or should not do something, the more likely he is to do the opposite of what is advised simply out of spite or to oppose you. Of course then when it blows up in his face, then he looks for someone to blame...such as the people that advised him to not do what he did.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
I disagree - EU is a $20T market, Japan $4T, each of UK/Canada/Australia are $2-3T markets. Yes, a lot of GDP is inflated but let's not forget that China does $2 trillion worth of trade with these countries (enjoying a huge surplus) with 10s of millions of jobs depending on exporting goods to these countries and powering its industrial base which makes China the undisputable industrial power. A lot is at stake in these relationship and it's no wonder that Chinese leadership is very cautious and responsible in managing these relationships.

Thats a massive logical fallacy to use the full value of bilateral trade as if it was what is at stake. Or do you honestly think all US vassals are going to cut all trade with China to zero?

And China has not just been diversifying away from America, but also the EU and other ‘developed’ economies for its main export destinations, with exports to Asia and Africa worth more than Europe and the Americas. And that is overstating the share of America and the EU

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Will a full blown trade war hurt? Of course. Which is why China doesn’t want one. But it is the only one who has actively and systematically been preparing for one. For the west to use trade to cause enough disruption to give China real headaches would collapse their own societies as their people’s already battered standards of living collapse without cheap Chinese imports helping to mitigate all the economic damage their own idiot leaders have inflicted upon them.

And that’s not even touching upon the more fundamental questions of just what it is the EU and the US makes that gives them so much value in today’s world economy. Is a handbag really worth as much as a car? What critical inputs does the EU and America sell to China that China literally could not do without that they themselves have not already weaponised and forced China to become self reliant on? Sure there is still much to do, and there will be massive damage and disruption for China, but the lights will stay on and the show will go on in China in the event of a total and immediate secession of trade between China and the west. How many weeks will western society last before they literally start eating each other in the streets?
 

RedBaron

New Member
Registered Member
I went around to have a look at how Europeans are feeling after the election result and boy, there's been a big change in mood:
View attachment 139391
Let's just say they're not feeling very partner like at the moment.
Just like in 2016, there will be plenty of screeching about how EU can no longer rely on the US and bunch of buzzwords being thrown around by Brussels bureaucrats like "European sovereignty" and "strategic autonomy".

But the moment Democrat returns to White House, EUnuchs will quickly forget everything they were saying and return to their traditional submissive state.
 

Africablack

Junior Member
Registered Member
I disagree - EU is a $20T market, Japan $4T, each of UK/Canada/Australia are $2-3T markets. Yes, a lot of GDP is inflated but let's not forget that China does $2 trillion worth of trade with these countries (enjoying a huge surplus) with 10s of millions of jobs depending on exporting goods to these countries and powering its industrial base which makes China the undisputable industrial power. A lot is at stake in these relationship and it's no wonder that Chinese leadership is very cautious and responsible in managing these relationships.
Let's get real, if the west could have done this to hurt China they would have done it a long time ago. There's a reason why they haven't done it; their citizens will not tolerate drastic drops in living standards. They were first talking about "decoupling" then when they saw how the numbers won't favor them they quickly switched to "de-risking". China can export to the rest of the world, the west will saturate themselves to death. They couldn't even completely decouple from Russia, they aren't going to try it with China.
 

huemens

Junior Member
Registered Member

US finalizes $6.6 billion chips award for TSMC ahead of Trump return​

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The binding contract - after a preliminary agreement announced in April - is the first major award to be completed under the $52.7 billion program created in 2022.
It comes just weeks before President-elect Donald Trump, who criticized the program, takes office.
The TSMC award also includes up to $5 billion in low-cost government loans. Under the agreement, TSMC will receive cash as it meets project milestones. Commerce expects to release at least $1 billion to TSMC by year end
TSMC agreed to forgo stock buybacks for five years - subject to some exceptions - and share any excess profits with the U.S. government under an "upside sharing agreement."
 

henrik

Senior Member
Registered Member
Rubio is probably gonna be just as bad as Pompeo. In Trump 1.0, he started out with Rex Tillerson as the Secretary of State. Not great, but not a full-blown neocon. But in Trump 2.0, he is already stacking up his cabinet with neocons, starting with Rubio as his Sec of State. Its already stacked full of China hawk cowboys. So Trump 2.0 is gonna go after China big time. Therefore I'm sensing already that Trump 2.0 is gonna be really happening. Even if Rubio wants more attention on Latin America, the other China hawks are gonna pulling Trump's attention back to China. I expect just as many, if not more provocations on China in Trump 2.0.

But, China is gonna be much more ready to face Trump 2.0 this time. The CPC and the Chinese people have already been hardened, unlike during Trump 1.0. There are gonna be less surprises, and less forgiveness. China have already moved on from thinking about returning back to the "normal times". The last remnants of those thoughts were dead and buried during the early part of the Biden administration.

To add to that, Russia have also been hardened already. There is no going back to "normal" ever again. The West had cheated Russia way too many times. Trump and his China hawks will try for awhile to woo Russia over, and then they are gonna be pissed when Russia won't roll over for them. Then they'll go after Russia too. There is now way too much momentum in the current China-Russia bromance for Trump to unravel. This relationship had been building for decades already, while Trump is gonna be around again for just another four years.

That rubio guy is going to have a hard time going against China's foreign minster Wang Yi. Any ridiculous move against China is going to face with a forceful retaliation.
 
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