Miscellaneous News

supercat said:

I think John J. Mearsheimer is actually quite hostile to China. He wants the war in Ukraine to end ASAP, so Russia can be united with the West in their opposition to their "common enemy" China. He can keep dreaming.

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He does seem like as compared to other commentators to be the most hawkish when it comes to china but he is also the one who is the most delusional when he can’t quite get it through his mind that given the harm done to Russia via the USA that that ship is sailed away with no way of changing the status quo for at least a generation or two. Also he is the one who is the mostly likely to breakdown as well given how things are rapidly falling apart for the likes of him. In an away, his superstar status in China could be proportional with the amount of bad news in regards to the US he is now sprouting. If he is sprout bad news about China that is actually true, he wouldn’t be any way near as ‘popular’

AndrewS said:

But is it worth it?

Let's take an upper-case scenario for Philippines and Japan

a) 1000 Chinese cruise missiles per day (as per the CCTV newsreel documentary)

b) Then presumably add a minimum of another 3000 Shaheed-type cruise missiles per day, because they are so much cheaper than a high-end cruise missile, plus China will have spare motorcycle engine and CNC machining capacity to do this.

That is 120K aimpoints per month, just from these 2 systems.

You're looking at total industrial and economic devastation in Japan and the Philippines.
For example, the electricity grid is gone. The airports and seaports aren't operational.

Does China really need to invade Japan or the Philippines? Or would they decide to ditch the US alliance

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No, it's probably not worth it. But definitely possible. So it's a question of will.

Should the Philippines support a US led attack on China, then it might be worth occupying it for some time. After all military infrastructure is destroyed already in a war, you might as well conquer the place

supercat said:

I think John J. Mearsheimer is actually quite hostile to China. He wants the war in Ukraine to end ASAP, so Russia can be united with the West in their opposition to their "common enemy" China. He can keep dreaming.

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That is the most intelligent thing to do.

The Ukraine war is a masterstroke by China to fully sway Russia. Russia is an extremely valuable piece on the global board, potentially as impactful as all of the EU or even more so.

For every day the Ukraine war goes on, it causes an increasingly irreversible decline between Russia and the west. Russia might always be China's "ally", but the west can make Russia more useless to China just by engaging with it, much like how China is making India more useless to the west.

The smart thing to do was to throw the Donbass at Putin while the war was in an early stage. Putin might have set his eyes on full annexation anyways, but having an easy partial victory and peace would be heavy political pressure.

US' advantage over China is that they work better with corrupt politicians and subterfuge, which mainly work in peace, when emotions are cold and greedy people rule. While in war, hot heads, nationalists and principalists take over.
On the other hand, China's advantage is in hard power generated by sheer economic size and it's autarky, which lends itself well to conflict but not peace.

If I were US, I'd avoid conflict and use my media power and connections to oligarchs across the world to sneak up on China. I'd emphasize on and create signals of genuine equality in the US, in order to build bridges with Chinese and Russians, which will inevitably give me a lobby within these rivals. To Russians, I can appeal to our shared ancestry as white peoples. To Chinese, I can appeal that we are both rich and powerful nations that can work together on large projects to help humanity forward.

This way, I would create divisions. Using Hollywood and the UN to appeal to personal egos in their governments. In the long term, China's societal efficiency will decrease.

At the same time, I'd try to rejuvenate America's people as much as possible. Bring education to the forefront, clean up poor societal trends, rebuild infrastructure, so that I can innovate and build in America. Put a cap on rent seeking behavior and crack down on corruption. US is way too corrupt overall, but my elites would be allowed to be corrupt, as long as they also get results, while the ones that are corrupt and do nothing get axed.

Once I can build at least 1000+ cruise missiles a day like China and have my own DJI, I'd be more ready to assert my hard power. With all the tech and anti corruption drives, I might also have hit 6th gen fighters first and can surely make a lot more 5th gens than China can. And China in this scenario won't be fighting America with all they got, since they've been lulled in a false sense of security.

All I need to get global hegemony is then to squeeze China into becoming a perpetual yes man for me. And why wouldn't they? Unlike OTL, I'm not being especially offensive to China, and we're both rich, satisfied and have no land disputes. China is being increasingly societally weakened and financialized, while America has enough industry to put up more than a good fight. China has no reason here to oppose me if I decide to genocide some blacks or browns.

Index said:

That is the most intelligent thing to do.

The Ukraine war is a masterstroke by China to fully sway Russia. Russia is an extremely valuable piece on the global board, potentially as impactful as all of the EU or even more so.

For every day the Ukraine war goes on, it causes an increasingly irreversible decline between Russia and the west. Russia might always be China's "ally", but the west can make Russia more useless to China just by engaging with it, much like how China is making India more useless to the west.

The smart thing to do was to throw the Donbass at Putin while the war was in an early stage. Putin might have set his eyes on full annexation anyways, but having an easy partial victory and peace would be heavy political pressure.

US' advantage over China is that they work better with corrupt politicians and subterfuge, which mainly work in peace, when emotions are cold and greedy people rule. While in war, hot heads, nationalists and principalists take over.
On the other hand, China's advantage is in hard power generated by sheer economic size and it's autarky, which lends itself well to conflict but not peace.

If I were US, I'd avoid conflict and use my media power and connections to oligarchs across the world to sneak up on China. I'd emphasize on and create signals of genuine equality in the US, in order to build bridges with Chinese and Russians, which will inevitably give me a lobby within these rivals. To Russians, I can appeal to our shared ancestry as white peoples. To Chinese, I can appeal that we are both rich and powerful nations that can work together on large projects to help humanity forward.

This way, I would create divisions. Using Hollywood and the UN to appeal to personal egos in their governments. In the long term, China's societal efficiency will decrease.

At the same time, I'd try to rejuvenate America's people as much as possible. Bring education to the forefront, clean up poor societal trends, rebuild infrastructure, so that I can innovate and build in America. Put a cap on rent seeking behavior and crack down on corruption. US is way too corrupt overall, but my elites would be allowed to be corrupt, as long as they also get results, while the ones that are corrupt and do nothing get axed.

Once I can build at least 1000+ cruise missiles a day like China and have my own DJI, I'd be more ready to assert my hard power. With all the tech and anti corruption drives, I might also have hit 6th gen fighters first and can surely make a lot more 5th gens than China can. And China in this scenario won't be fighting America with all they got, since they've been lulled in a false sense of security.

All I need to get global hegemony is then to squeeze China into becoming a perpetual yes man for me. And why wouldn't they? Unlike OTL, I'm not being especially offensive to China, and we're both rich, satisfied and have no land disputes. China is being increasingly societally weakened and financialized, while America has enough industry to put up more than a good fight. China has no reason here to oppose me if I decide to genocide some blacks or browns.

Click to expand...

From a geopolitical standpoint losing Iran to western power is just as dangerous as losing Russia. By losing Iran, you've got the entire strait of Hormuz in western hands and china's oil imports and trade will be jeopardized.

Regarding Russia, it is militarily much more stronger now than it was before primarily due to it shifting towards a war economy. Their production lines are far more productive and their equipment has seen a huge upgrade ever since the start of Ukraine war even when they've lost alot of soldiers.

China should do everything it can to always keep Russia and Iran on its side. Otherwise it would be devastating.

China needs allies as china isn't invincible. Far from it.

In all honesty, seeing the entire American political discourse getting riled up by Iran is funny and hilarious.

Atleast with China, it's understandable as it is America's peer competitor but Americans politicians always getting triggered by Iran whose economy is multitudes time smaller than them and labelling them as their greatest enemy makes them look childish weak and insufferable

Index said:

That is the most intelligent thing to do.

The Ukraine war is a masterstroke by China to fully sway Russia. Russia is an extremely valuable piece on the global board, potentially as impactful as all of the EU or even more so.

Click to expand...

I think the Ukraine war actually surprised China, as they thought it would be more sabre-rattling
An actual war is unpredictable. So why would China want the Ukraine war, given that the trends are already very favourable?

Index said:

For every day the Ukraine war goes on, it causes an increasingly irreversible decline between Russia and the west. Russia might always be China's "ally", but the west can make Russia more useless to China just by engaging with it, much like how China is making India more useless to the west.

The smart thing to do was to throw the Donbass at Putin while the war was in an early stage. Putin might have set his eyes on full annexation anyways, but having an easy partial victory and peace would be heavy political pressure.

US' advantage over China is that they work better with corrupt politicians and subterfuge, which mainly work in peace, when emotions are cold and greedy people rule. While in war, hot heads, nationalists and principalists take over.
On the other hand, China's advantage is in hard power generated by sheer economic size and it's autarky, which lends itself well to conflict but not peace.

If I were US, I'd avoid conflict and use my media power and connections to oligarchs across the world to sneak up on China. I'd emphasize on and create signals of genuine equality in the US, in order to build bridges with Chinese and Russians, which will inevitably give me a lobby within these rivals. To Russians, I can appeal to our shared ancestry as white peoples. To Chinese, I can appeal that we are both rich and powerful nations that can work together on large projects to help humanity forward.

This way, I would create divisions. Using Hollywood and the UN to appeal to personal egos in their governments. In the long term, China's societal efficiency will decrease.

At the same time, I'd try to rejuvenate America's people as much as possible. Bring education to the forefront, clean up poor societal trends, rebuild infrastructure, so that I can innovate and build in America. Put a cap on rent seeking behavior and crack down on corruption. US is way too corrupt overall, but my elites would be allowed to be corrupt, as long as they also get results, while the ones that are corrupt and do nothing get axed.

Once I can build at least 1000+ cruise missiles a day like China and have my own DJI, I'd be more ready to assert my hard power. With all the tech and anti corruption drives, I might also have hit 6th gen fighters first and can surely make a lot more 5th gens than China can. And China in this scenario won't be fighting America with all they got, since they've been lulled in a false sense of security.

All I need to get global hegemony is then to squeeze China into becoming a perpetual yes man for me. And why wouldn't they? Unlike OTL, I'm not being especially offensive to China, and we're both rich, satisfied and have no land disputes. China is being increasingly societally weakened and financialized, while America has enough industry to put up more than a good fight. China has no reason here to oppose me if I decide to genocide some blacks or browns.

Click to expand...

There's now serious (but quiet) discussion of what if China grows to 2x or even 3x the size of the USA.

There's no way that China will be a "yes" man to the USA in such a world.

Nor any way that the USA will be the global hegemon.

China didn’t have to do anything to divide the West and Russia. Russia is never going to be a subordinate to which the West will always demand. You can go back over a hundred years to where Russia as a colonial nation itself was never treated equally to Western countries that make up today. And that’s the problem that still remains today that Russia is not seen as their equal even if it were to side with them. Russia would face the same issues in competition with Western countries. It’s a joke that the West wants to appeal to Russia with the white supremacy card. Americans like to throw out there that if Nixon didn’t go to China, it would not be the challenge it is to the West today. Yeah you can also say if Nixon didn’t go to China, the US and the West would’ve nuked by the Soviet Union by now. So which poison do you want? It’s just as easy to say that if the US didn’t antagonize China, Russia wouldn’t be in the same position to resist the West. It’s so easy yet the West doesn’t want to admit they got anything wrong. The West is at the point of no return so all they have is would’ve, could’ve, should’ve.

AndrewS said:

Where did you get the AUKUS figure that China is going with 6 SSNs per year?

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I know people in my industry, you're free to ignore this part if you wish.

This. Was. Sad.


Have "peaceful protests" ever worked?

I didn't want to post this yesterday in the war thread because it was graphic and assumed viewers may have already seen it, but X has removed the video.
It shows Gazan patients in intensive care, attached to medical devices, and after Israel bombed the hospital.

MSM finding it difficult to find anchors to defend Israel on TV

Israeli polymath said, in 1992, Israel is "Judeo-Nazi".
Jewish scholar Finkelstein says "Judeo-dementia". We're witnessing new Judeo- terms surfacing. What's next? Judeo-pathy? Jud-oma? Judeo-fever?

This is nuts! How it all started, how Zionism entered America.
British Oxford University, for the first and only time in it's entire history, published a book (a new bible) in America - the Scofield Bible - which corrupted earlier bibles into a narrative that supports Israel.

Watching Canada of all country turn into hatred of India is hilarious.

I remember Indians mocking China saying they should bid their time and wait to strike instead of being loudmouthed and letting everyone know their hostility. Well I guess India did outdo China this time!