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iewgnem

Junior Member
Registered Member
Procurement of THAAD missiles for the FY2024 budget was 11, with a total of 623 in all previous years. I'm not sure how effective this can be in a saturation attack, which Iran has already demonstrated. There simply aren't enough interceptors to be able to protect Israel from Iranian ballistic missiles.
THHAD doesnt need to intercept every missile, it just need to incercept the one aimed at Bibi.

Yes this could end up quickly depleting US global THAAD inventory, but desperation tend to ignore long term.

This move if true proves a few things:
- Arrow cant intercept Iranian missiles at all even if concentrated around critical targets
- Israel now expect critical targets to be hit which they previously did not
- Israel now expect less critical targets to be destroyed
- US/Israel are improvising with no long term plans
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Its highly doubtful UUVs will be built at a nuclear certified assembly bay specificly sized for SSN/SSBNs.

Why not? There are only three shipyards which currently build submarines. And remember that Jiangnan is relatively vulnerable, whereas Huludao and Wuchang are more protected. We see Wuchang expanding as well.

Yes, the rails are sized to handle SSN/SSBNs.
But there's no point building a smaller gauge railway, because it won't be compatible with the existing network
And UUVs (which are smaller) can presumably be moved via transporters, rather than need the rails.

Now, given that submarine technology is trending towards larger submarines as carriers for missiles or UUVs, that would mean only (3+2+1) such bays available for submarines at least as big as SSBNs. It depends on how fast UUVs develop.

Having reserve capacity to build missiles with short lead times is also very different from reserving capacity for things 5hat takes years to buiod, especially when said capacity is not remotely cheap to leave idle.

It would be interesting to know how long it actually takes to build an SSN in China, from start to finish. My guess is less than 4 years.

Fact is China invested in capacity to build >6 subs a year, is still expanding that capacity to higher numbers, has the need to build >6 subs a year to achive global dominance over USN, and will never tell the public how many are built nor where they are

6 SSNs per year won't achieve global dominance over the US. Even after 10 years, that's 60 additional SSNs. So China would have a somewhat larger SSN force than the US, but it wouldn't be a globally dominant because submarines are sea denial systems. For dominance, you need carriers which can launch aircraft that assert sea control over long distances.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
THHAD doesnt need to intercept every missile, it just need to incercept the one aimed at Bibi.

Yes this could end up quickly depleting US global THAAD inventory, but desperation tend to ignore long term.

This move if true proves a few things:
- Arrow cant intercept Iranian missiles at all even if concentrated around critical targets
- Israel now expect critical targets to be hit which they previously did not
- Israel now expect less critical targets to be destroyed
- US/Israel are improvising with no long term plans

Remember that each THAAD missile costs $11 Mn.

Yet they will be intercepting Iranian ballistic missiles that cost less than $1-2?? Mn
 

Chevalier

Captain
Registered Member
This sounds a lot like the Enabling Act that propelled Nazi germany into existence.

On the other hand, I get the feeling that the Kamala Harris admin is going to give an eminence grise role to Hilary Clinton; that is, the democrats will try to sneak in a Hilary Clinton presidency as VP once Tim waltz bows out due to age and health and Kamala Harris coincidentally resigns
 

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
Procurement of THAAD missiles for the FY2024 budget was 11, with a total of 623 in all previous years. I'm not sure how effective this can be in a saturation attack, which Iran has already demonstrated. There simply aren't enough interceptors to be able to protect Israel from Iranian ballistic missiles.
To be fair, they'll gain some combat experience. That's worth something. But of course they can't build enough to affect an actual war. Typically American, building fancy toys that don't work in a war with a real adversary. These numbers put the threat of thaad in Korea in perspective

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The Iranian missiles may have not been accurate but they were collectively bunched in the same area upon impact and more importantly, they weren't intercepted meaning US and Israeli technology failed. There were no errant missiles, intercepted or not, landing in cities because from the video footage some of those missiles came down on top of people recording from the cities.

The "delayed" Israeli retaliation says something too. I'm sure they had a retaliation plan ready beforehand. How come they haven't implemented it? To show immediacy afterwards would show Israel is undeterred. The US is worried if an F-35 gets shot down.

Overall it's also an attempt to discourage countries like China from using and developing more types of these weapons.
Israeli high tech industries and semiconductor fabs are very soft targets and large sites. The missile attack wasn't meant to cause serious harm, just a little bit to send a message of what could happen next time. Iran can deliver a nuclear weapon, if it chooses to build one, and it can destroy tartets that are large and soft.

For the first time in many decades Israel is facing an enemy that it can't attack with impunity because they can hurt Israel in retaliation. For a nation in which extreme racism is common, this is difficult to deal with
 

iewgnem

Junior Member
Registered Member
Why not? There are only three shipyards which currently build submarines. And remember that Jiangnan is relatively vulnerable, whereas Huludao and Wuchang are more protected. We see Wuchang expanding as well.

Yes, the rails are sized to handle SSN/SSBNs.
But there's no point building a smaller gauge railway, because it won't be compatible with the existing network
And UUVs (which are smaller) can presumably be moved via transporters, rather than need the rails.

Now, given that submarine technology is trending towards larger submarines as carriers for missiles or UUVs, that would mean only (3+2+1) such bays available for submarines at least as big as SSBNs. It depends on how fast UUVs develop.



It would be interesting to know how long it actually takes to build an SSN in China, from start to finish. My guess is less than 4 years.



6 SSNs per year won't achieve global dominance over the US. Even after 10 years, that's 60 additional SSNs. So China would have a somewhat larger SSN force than the US, but it wouldn't be a globally dominant because submarines are sea denial systems. For dominance, you need carriers which can launch aircraft that assert sea control over long distances.
Something the size of HSU-001 definitely does not need a dedicated submarine yard to build, and certainly not nuclear certified yard. Huludao will build non-nuclear subs long before they start building UUVs, and there's no evidence they're doing even that.

The USN currently has 53x SSN, 13x SSBN and 4x SSGN for total of 71, it building 1.5x Virgina a year trying to ramp up to 2 a year, has a total of 12x Columbia ordered that won't enter service until 2030s, all 4x SSGN are schedule for retirement by 2028 and almost all Los Angeles boats will be retired by 2035, which means in 10 years US will have, assuming they can ramp up Virgina and Columbia stays on schedule, ~40x Virginia SSN, ~14x Ohios and ~2x Columbia.

So even if we start at 6+6 for China today (it's almost certainly higher), and not counting the 4 new bays added at Huludao, not counting bays prior to 2016 expansion, not counting conventional subs or semi-nuclear subs, in 10 years we're looking at conservatively 72x vs 56x, and if that's not enough for dominance, then give it 15 years for China 100 vs 70.

Sure submarines alone isn't enough to ensure global dominance over USN, which is where China's massive surface fleet construction and global prompt strike systems comes in. Remember, SSN was the USN's last saving grace.
 

supercat

Major
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LMAO tweet of the day:
 
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