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AssassinsMace

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
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The Iranian missiles may have not been accurate but they were collectively bunched in the same area upon impact and more importantly, they weren't intercepted meaning US and Israeli technology failed. There were no errant missiles, intercepted or not, landing in cities because from the video footage some of those missiles came down on top of people recording from the cities.

The "delayed" Israeli retaliation says something too. I'm sure they had a retaliation plan ready beforehand. How come they haven't implemented it? To show immediacy afterwards would show Israel is undeterred. The US is worried if an F-35 gets shot down.

Overall it's also an attempt to discourage countries like China from using and developing more types of these weapons.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
iewgnem said:
- One might not build as many boats per year as the yard has capacity to do so, but one does not expand the yard if its not building as many as it has capacity to, and new bays are being added.
- It makes as much sense to build more than 1 SSBN per year as it makes sense to build 20 bays at Huludao, and there are 20 bays as Huludao
- There could be as many more SSBN as China deems necessary, which could be more than 1, or it could be it's 5x SSN + 1 SSBN a year, nobody knows what's in the bays.
- US builds 1.5 Virginia per year per 5 bays, multiply by 4 and you get exactly 6, so evidently your estimate of bay to boats per year needs rectifying.
Click to expand...

You can see how each Virginia takes a different amount of time to assemble in each bay.
Hence my guestimate of 6-9 months to assemble an SSN in China.

But now the US are stuck at current production levels, even though spare bays are theoretically available.
It looks like they've run out of skilled labour to ramp upwards.

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My gut says a lot of that capacity at Huludao will be used to produce more than just SSNs or SSBNs.
If you think about it, UUVs will soon be as important as airborne drones today.

It make sense to build out spare capacity as a contingency.
Look at the CCTV newsreel where they report production capacity of up to 1000 cruise missiles per day, if this is required.
But actual production is nowhere near this level.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
AssassinsMace said:
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The Iranian missiles may have not been accurate but they were collectively bunched in the same area upon impact and more importantly, they weren't intercepted meaning US and Israeli technology failed. There were no errant missiles, intercepted or not, landing in cities because from the video footage some of those missiles came down on top of people recording from the cities.

The "delayed" Israeli retaliation says something too. I'm sure they had a retaliation plan ready beforehand. How come they haven't implemented it? To show immediacy afterwards would show Israel is undeterred. The US is worried if an F-35 gets shot down.

Overall it's also an attempt to discourage countries like China from using and developing more types of these weapons.
Click to expand...

There aren't many good options for Israel.

1. Strike Iranian nuclear facilities in hardened underground facilities? This fallout will mostly be contained underground.
Then the Iranians will hit the Israeli nuclear reactor at Dimona which is in the open, and contaminate all of Israel

2. Hit Iranian oil facilities? Iran will hit the Israel's offshore gas platforms or oil refineries.

3. Hit Iranian military production factories? Iran will do the same to Israel

You get the idea.
 
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Arij Javaid

Junior Member
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
There aren't many good options for Israel.

1. Strike Iranian nuclear facilities in hardened underground facilities? This fallout will mostly be contained underground.
Then the Iranians will hit the Israeli nuclear reactor at Dimona which is in the open, and contaminate all of Israel

2. Hit Iranian oil facilities? Iran will hit the Israel's offshore gas platforms or oil refineries.

3. Hit Iranian military production factories? Iran will do the same to Israel

You get the idea.
Click to expand...
And Israel is already getting roasted on the ground by Hezbollah in Lebanon and are committing more troops into Gaza.

While Iran only has 1 thing to worry about
 
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Arij Javaid

Junior Member
Registered Member
I can say with assurity that in the event that Iran gets invaded by US forces. China is going to make Iran its own Ukraine and try to cripple the US military by supplying Iran mass produced weapons in Chinese factory

When the time comes that china forcefully reunifies Taiwan, US military will be weakened which would give China a huge edge and it will also help Iran return the favour by blocking strait of Hormuz and not allowing any US ships to cross that region.
 
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pmc

Major
Registered Member
AssassinsMace said:
Location of missiles… on mobile launchers? Didn’t hear the US bragging that they destroyed those mobile launchers so it didn’t happen.
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i was referring to all the vehicle and human activity around launchers that will be traced and considering the Wealth/tech difference between Israel/Arabs and Iran it will not be hard to figure out. The rest of things are much complicated that can be explained in few lines. Just think why Arabs are supporters of Trump? or that Modi is there greatest friend.
 
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iewgnem

Junior Member
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
You can see how each Virginia takes a different amount of time to assemble in each bay.
Hence my guestimate of 6-9 months to assemble an SSN in China.

But now the US are stuck at current production levels, even though spare bays are theoretically available.
It looks like they've run out of skilled labour to ramp upwards.

---

My gut says a lot of that capacity at Huludao will be used to produce more than just SSNs or SSBNs.
If you think about it, UUVs will soon be as important as airborne drones today.

It make sense to build out spare capacity as a contingency.
Look at the CCTV newsreel where they report production capacity of up to 1000 cruise missiles per day, if this is required.
But actual production is nowhere near this level.
Click to expand...
Its highly doubtful UUVs will be built at a nuclear certified deep water assembly bay specificly sized for SSN/SSBNs.

Having reserve capacity to build missiles with short lead times is also very different from reserving capacity for things that takes years to build, especially when said capacity is not remotely cheap to leave idle.

Fact is China invested in capacity to build >6 subs a year, is still expanding that capacity to higher numbers, has the need to build >6 subs a year to achive global dominance over USN, and will never tell the public how many are built nor where they are
 
I

iewgnem

Junior Member
Registered Member
AssassinsMace said:
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The Iranian missiles may have not been accurate but they were collectively bunched in the same area upon impact and more importantly, they weren't intercepted meaning US and Israeli technology failed. There were no errant missiles, intercepted or not, landing in cities because from the video footage some of those missiles came down on top of people recording from the cities.

The "delayed" Israeli retaliation says something too. I'm sure they had a retaliation plan ready beforehand. How come they haven't implemented it? To show immediacy afterwards would show Israel is undeterred. The US is worried if an F-35 gets shot down.

Overall it's also an attempt to discourage countries like China from using and developing more types of these weapons.
Click to expand...
The dead center impacts on dozens of buildings and hangers at multiple Israel airbases seen in sat photos says otherwise about accuracy.

The delayed Israel response does say a lot, response caculus changed with understanding of consequence. New plans need to be created which takes time, and new preparations need to be made for the new consequence, case in point US jusr deploying their own AD to Israel for the first time

The fact that almost none were intercepted and articles are put out trying to frame the attack as not acurate, despite the slow in release but by now public sat photos showing impacts, showed if anything greater effectiveness of these weapons than both sides expected
 
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