Miscellaneous News

LuzinskiJ said:

I am often confused by the exercises Army and Marines that center around fighting a ground war with China. Just where do they envision this ground war to take place? In Taiwan or in China, or both? If Taiwan, what if Taiwan refuses American military to come onshore full-force because they fear a clash of two big army forces will simply turn Taiwan into a smoldering wasteland, does that mean US will invade Taiwan anyways just to prevent a China take-over? And if China, does US really think invading China is a good idea (or even an viable idea?) I guess they could invade and take over islands in SCS. But that would that accomplish? The same exposure that allows them to invade and perhaps succeed also exposes them to the counter that will inevitable come. So what are these ground-war exercises really telling us?

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You're overanaylizing it, their entire wargame was implicitly based on assuming they'll have access to Chinese exports, theres not enough strategic thought behind it for it to represent any long term plan. Closest it comes to actual plan is USMC's Force Design 2030, which is just island hopping in Pacific with missile trailers because they cant imagine an enemy with an airforce or drones.

If we're purely imagining a ground war between US and China, as the dominant shipbuilder and civilian cargo transporter on the planet, China is the only one with the logistic capacity to actually supply a near peer ground war across an ocean, so it'll be in either Australia or, if nukes dont come into play, CONUS

chgough34 said:

Or it’s because most M&A deals involving Japan go through without incident and are approved easily by CFIUS. And ultimately, the U.S. is by far, the most valuable market, and foreigners will indeed pay substantial risk premia to sell in the U.S.

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Lol, it is only valuable in as much you can scam the US government into giving you freshly printed money so you can play with buying almost bankrupt companies to do some pump-n-dump schemes while stealing any real state they might have. Funny thing, the "pumping" part helps keep the whole Wall Street numbers inflated, but bubbles can only last so long

Eventually you'll run out of companies to bankrupt that are bing enough to support the scheme.

Also, good luck with your "most valuable market" if you keep threatening even your closest allies with sanctions if they don't bend their knee to your most stupid geopolitical decisions in 20 years.

chgough34 said:

human capital, physical capital stock, and technological know-how are simply irreversible.

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so mostly fake money, gotcha. Plenty of places with better know-how in many areas.

chgough34 said:

“Halting gdp growth”

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must be more of that “falling life expectancy” (entirely a statistical relic due to COVID)

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it’s all very simple - the U.S. has by far, the highest living standards among non-micro states anywhere and the material basis for those living standards in unparalleled human capital, physical capital stock, and technological know-how are simply irreversible.

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We already know you're not American nor even spent any amount if time in rthe US, you dont need to remind everyone

chgough34 said:

“Halting gdp growth”

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must be more of that “falling life expectancy” (entirely a statistical relic due to COVID)

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it’s all very simple - the U.S. has by far, the highest living standards among non-micro states anywhere and the material basis for those living standards in unparalleled human capital, physical capital stock, and technological know-how are simply irreversible.

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Well yeah, if China, a state with similar levels of technological and industrial hegemony as US and a slightly larger economy, was growing at 3%, you'd be the first one to clown on it.

Especially when US keeps that growth mainly from cannibalizing EU economy. EU is also China's enemy, so US eating them significantly weakens the faction that could potentially stand up to China later.

Although as others have also noticed based on your posting pattern and insights to life, you do not seem to be American. In light of that, I guess you can comfort yourself in that the totally hygienic and beautiful state you come from has higher GDP growth percentage than both US and China...

Through I doubt it will ever reach up to either of us in total GDP

Index said:

Well yeah, if China, a state with similar levels of technological and industrial hegemony as US and a slightly larger economy, was growing at 3%, you'd be the first one to clown on it.

Especially when US keeps that growth mainly from cannibalizing EU economy. EU is also China's enemy, so US eating them significantly weakens the faction that could potentially stand up to China later.

Although as others have also noticed based on your posting pattern and insights to life, you do not seem to be American. In light of that, I guess you can comfort yourself in that the totally hygienic and beautiful state you come from has higher GDP growth percentage than both US and China...

Through I doubt it will ever reach up to either of us in total GDP

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Even if we assume US GDP wont get the - 800k BLS jobs revision treatment, US interest rate is 5.5% and all growth came from debt spending on non productive activities, borrowing at 5.5% and investing in something with 2.5% return is just an exponential race to bankruptcy, and their inability to pay from everything from NGAD to CCGx to NASA shows it

iewgnem said:

Even if we assume US GDP wont get the - 800k BLS jobs revision treatment, US interest rate is 5.5% and all growth came from debt spending on non productive activities, borrowing at 5.5% and investing in something with 2.5% return is just an exponential race to bankruptcy, and their inability to pay from everything from NGAD to CCGx to NASA shows it

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The problem US is gonna have with rate cuts.

Is who is then gonna buy up the staggering amount of US bonds that they will sell?

If fed does it, well, be prepared to get yearly reductions of 5% in US dollar exchange rates.

And the accompanying inflation that will cause lol.

(So yeah, stuck between two hard places, and the rate cuts is only a when, not if as well).

chgough34 said:

“Halting gdp growth”

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must be more of that “falling life expectancy” (entirely a statistical relic due to COVID)

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EU GDP increase is only 0.2%.


So @Index is not wrong saying it halted GDP growth in most of NATO, and EU makes up most of NATO

chgough34 said:

it’s all very simple - the U.S. has by far, the highest living standards among non-micro states anywhere and the material basis for those living standards in unparalleled human capital, physical capital stock, and technological know-how are simply irreversible.

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Wrong.


Sure it went up for 2 years but Still, the life expectancy rate still hasn’t recovered to pre-pandemic levels: In 2019, life expectancy was 78.8. So the US life expectancy is still lower than before.

The US has the LOWEST life expectancy among large wealthy countries while it far outspends it's peers on health care.

Same for infant mortality


So what you said is actually the opposite of facts.

US "unparalleled" tech know how has already reversed in many instances.

huemens said:

TIME selects Huawei's brand ambassador Gina Raimondo as one of the most influential peoples in AI

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View attachment 135319

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I just realized that I’ve got more clean room experience during my six month internship than all of the US tech decision makers combined.

chgough34 said:

What “American blood” in Ukraine? There’s a ton of Russian blood due to the U.S. shipping a ton of weapons from 30 years ago to Ukraine but notably, no U.S. service members. Ukraine is absolutely wonderful for the US - all the U.S. did was type a few words on papers that “Ukraine was going to join nato”, and baited Russia into invading which meant the U.S. gets to sell untold volumes of weapons and energy to Europe, weaken Europe-Russia relations, and prove to European elites, complete Russian incompetence.

Even if the U.S. was “exiled to the North American continent” as the U.S. was, the U.S. would still have unparalled wealth. Angus Maddison’s work has shown that ever since the 1700s, the U.S. has been amazingly wealthy compared to any international panel, and if anything the great divergence is being led by the U.S. and that great divergence is only getting stronger

Also not happening: at worst, the U.S. goes back to living in prosperity in the lower 48 with Western Europe and Latin America as consolidation prizes.

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So, you must be extremely naive if you really think that, the damage done to the USA via this inspired by keyboard typing is astronomical. I mean Europe basically destroyed its own industries, both the USA and the EU have basically disarmed themselves with all the money and weapons sent to Ukraine which in the end has basically got Russia 4 new territories (which accounts for most of Ukraines industries) and the dollar is in danger of collapse due to its current unreliability and during all this, Russia economy is exploding upwards while the USA has its debt exploding to untold levels. So yeah, the war is wonderful, for Russia that is, but for the USA? You should stop listening to Lindsay Graham cause that guy is a dumb retard thinking that the war strictly benefits the USA without any accounting for all the risks involved. If you think about it, Russia has basically rid itself of a customer (Europe) that has always been a bunch of backstabbers so I can’t see that as a negative, especially when China is a far more reliable alternative and heck, that expensive energy from the USA isn’t going to help Europe as opposed to bankrupting them quicker