Many people say China will catch up or exceed U.S in military strength decades later.

Re: Many people say China will catch up or exceed U.S in military strength decades la

A.Man said:

China has 1.3 billion people while the US is just over 300 million. If people in both countries will have the same level of education, China shall get a four times large mind. When the average person's mentality is equal, the United States will not be able to stop China.

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Very true and the Pentagon knows it, but one thing they are not mentioning to the public is "eugenics" !

Caucasians have an average IQ of 100 and East Asians in China have an average IQ of 104 times that by a population of 5 and you get the picture ! There are more honor students in China now than there are students in the US.

India will never be a superpower or ever match China with its population with only an average IQ of 85.

Sorry if I sound harsh, but facts are facts after 600+ studies !

Re: Many people say China will catch up or exceed U.S in military strength decades la

Eugenics suck, as do most IQ tests.

Basically, I cannot see much stopping China in what they usually were in history, one of the most important powers. If you compare the current "Mao Dynasty", with other dynasties, it shows a number of aspects that bode well for its further development.
1: The dynasty is ethnically Han, ruling over other ethnic Hans. The foreign Yuan and Quing Dynasties had far more trouble in controlling their populations, something that significantly decreased their performance.
2: China is not looking inward in the way f.e. the Ming did when they began their failures. Innovation is a important thing in order to have a thriving society, and the acknowledgement of foreign competetion will ensure that innovation will proceed.
3: It does not appear that the Chinese gouverment is out of touch with reality. Quite a number of Dynasties (not only Chinese, f.e. the Habsburgs also come to mind) As a matter of fact, I would attribute this more to the Americans still preaching the Mantra of the all powerfull godlike free market entity.

I can totally see a future where China and the US are the 2 main powers, with the EU (which is unlikely to unify without a severe foreign threat, something a conflict scenario between the US and China could create) and Russia (Underestimating Russia is a common "final mistake" for a couple of empires, but their population base appears to be a bit too small to contest the title of "strongest") beeing the runner ups.
Brazil will likely achieve dominance in South America. Concerning India...
I cannot predict what is going to happen there, but I am quite sure that Sino-Indian relations will have a significant impact on both the far east and on south east asia.

Compared to Brazil, India both has more dangerous Rivals (China, Pakistan, Iran), it has more internal problems (less homogenous population) and less areas to easily expand too.

Re: Many people say China will catch up or exceed U.S in military strength decades la

EdT586 said:

Very true and the Pentagon knows it, but one thing they are not mentioning to the public is "eugenics" !

Caucasians have an average IQ of 100 and East Asians in China have an average IQ of 104 times that by a population of 5 and you get the picture ! There are more honor students in China now than there are students in the US.

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First of all, I feel that looking at IQ is a very dangerous way of predicting the future of even one person, much less a nation. The minute difference between IQs can be easily offset by other factors. So you can even say that the success of a person depends more on his/her personal attributes, such as work ethics, personality, the almighty networking and even a healthy dose of luck.

Plus, being good in school does not mean that you will succeed in real world. Being good at test taking is different from problem-solving skills and the ability to work under the pressure that you'll need in the real world. I've heard so many stories about people who do exceedingly well at school end up being underachievers at work.

EdT586 said:

India will never be a superpower or ever match China with its population with only an average IQ of 85.

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Hmmmm, a person with 85 as an IQ would be considered "slow" (see below for a classification of IQ). I don't believe that a whole population would have an IQ that is borderline dumb... We have so many highly successful Indian scientists and engineers. In fact, if you go to any science conference, you'll see about 1/3 East Asian, 1/3 Caucasian and 1/3 Indian. I'm having a hard time believing that a society capable of generating so many brilliant minds only has an average IQ borderline dumb.

Re: Many people say China will catch up or exceed U.S in military strength decades la

There is one equation that will decide how fast China will catch up with US. that is flow of top brains. A lot of the top scientist and engineers in USA are not born there.

There seems to be a reverse of brain drain recently, it used to be that many Chinese students decided to stayed back in USA to work after their graduation, but now more scientist and engineers are going back to China.

These people will bring back their oversea experience that will accelerate the technology advancement. Also, there are many cases of Overseas Chinese scientist and engineers now working in China, many of them are from South East Asian countries.

Re: Many people say China will catch up or exceed U.S in military strength decades la

lcloo said:

There is one equation that will decide how fast China will catch up with US. that is flow of top brains. A lot of the top scientist and engineers in USA are not born there.

There seems to be a reverse of brain drain recently, it used to be that many Chinese students decided to stayed back in USA to work after their graduation, but now more scientist and engineers are going back to China.

These people will bring back their oversea experience that will accelerate the technology advancement. Also, there are many cases of Overseas Chinese scientist and engineers now working in China, many of them are from South East Asian countries.

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Agreed, However, an additional factor is how the talent should be used. Apparently, many government policies still limit the creative thinking that is critical to innovation. At least in the scientific fields, we have not seen the fruit of this backflow of talent into China. One indication: publication in prestigious journals from Chinese universities has been very limited. Nowadays, almost 80-90% of scientific publications you find in high-impact journals, like Science/Nature, have Chinese authors. And very likely, you will find the first author being Chinese, meaning that this person is the primary guy on the project. But these Chinese scholars are mostly doing work at Western universities. You can hardly find any publication coming straight from Mainland China.

I think the Chinese govn't has a long way to go to learn how to use the talent they are getting and don't let it go waste. That would involve many changes in policies.

Re: Many people say China will catch up or exceed U.S in military strength decades la

My bet is that china will get the US economically already in this decade but I don't think they will get them in Military Ranking within out lifetime, alone because the US Navy controls all Oceans and China is pretty landlocked by Islands with US bases(Jap/Taiwan). And it takes decades alone to build a competitive fleet of Aircraft carriers.

Re: Many people say China will catch up or exceed U.S in military strength decades la

vesicles said:

Agreed, However, an additional factor is how the talent should be used. Apparently, many government policies still limit the creative thinking that is critical to innovation. At least in the scientific fields, we have not seen the fruit of this backflow of talent into China. One indication: publication in prestigious journals from Chinese universities has been very limited. Nowadays, almost 80-90% of scientific publications you find in high-impact journals, like Science/Nature, have Chinese authors. And very likely, you will find the first author being Chinese, meaning that this person is the primary guy on the project. But these Chinese scholars are mostly doing work at Western universities. You can hardly find any publication coming straight from Mainland China.

I think the Chinese govn't has a long way to go to learn how to use the talent they are getting and don't let it go waste. That would involve many changes in policies.

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I recently read there was a falling amount of technocrats amongst the highest ranks of leadership. Appratnachiks (spelling) I hope you know what Im referring to, are gaining ground in the political leadership stakes, so i wonder if that will stifle innovation in the long run.

Re: Many people say China will catch up or exceed U.S in military strength decades la

bladerunner said:

I recently read there was a falling amount of technocrats amongst the highest ranks of leadership. Appranachiks (spelling) I hope you know what Im referring to, are gaining ground in the political leadership stakes, so i wonder if that will stifle innovation in the long run.

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Can you enlighten me what Appranachik is? I googled it and found absolutely nothing...

Re: Many people say China will catch up or exceed U.S in military strength decades la

well i think for china to catch US in military tech and strength its gonna be a LONG time. china hasn't even developed a blue navy, while US already dominate the sea for decades.

Re: Many people say China will catch up or exceed U.S in military strength decades la

It is very unfortunate that being creative and innovative in not encouraged in China in the past. I don't know what is the present situation but they definitely need change of mind set.