Low-cost, muti-role aircraft for small militaries

Argentina's problems Defence wise have gone far beyond the purchase of a couple of sqns of fighters. Even if the financial taps were opened to unheard of levels, it would take a decade to regenerate even the most basically effective armed forces, and we see no signs of that happening anytime soon. It's sad to see a once proud nation fall back so far, and there is simply no easy way out.

Obi Wan Russell said:

Argentina's problems Defence wise have gone far beyond the purchase of a couple of sqns of fighters. Even if the financial taps were opened to unheard of levels, it would take a decade to regenerate even the most basically effective armed forces, and we see no signs of that happening anytime soon. It's sad to see a once proud nation fall back so far, and there is simply no easy way out.

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You are absolutely correct Obi Wan! The Argentine air force has some of the best stick and rubber men. However the aircraft that were being flown and the tactics utilized for those aircraft are old news. With new aircraft come new tactics and weapon systems. All of that will take years to integrate effectively and to utilize properly.

When the A-4AR are decommissioned in 2018, there will be no air force

Sad but true. Argentina has spent the last forty years tearing itself apart one way or another, and its been sad and painful to watch. Britain and Argentina where once great friends with a lot of defence co operation. I don't see that happening again any time soon, although we have extended the olive branch a number of times, internal politics on the Argentine side prevented any great moves to repair the relationship. I really hope they can pull themselves out of this situation, but I honestly can't see how in the foreseeable future.

Obi Wan Russell said:

Sad but true. Argentina has spent the last forty years tearing itself apart one way or another, and its been sad and painful to watch. Britain and Argentina where once great friends with a lot of defence co operation. I don't see that happening again any time soon, although we have extended the olive branch a number of times, internal politics on the Argentine side prevented any great moves to repair the relationship. I really hope they can pull themselves out of this situation, but I honestly can't see how in the foreseeable future.

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Yes...Argentina chose a path through its leaders, and then through its own election process, that has put itself in this position.

They took, as you say Obi, almost 40 years to get where they are.

It will certainly take decades to turn away from and recover from it.

You do not fix these things over night...or with "get rich quick" type schemes. Those will only end up digging the hole deeper.

Argentina is in need of some real patriots, who can convince the people what need to be done, and then get elected and start doing it. If they do, their success will br3eed success...but you can bet the progressive/liberals will howl and do all in their power to stop it.

The same can be said for numerous nations right now...in Europe, and right here in the US too.

But is can be done. With a lot of hard work, reliance on fundamental principles, and seeking and receiving the help of a merciful God in Heaven...it can be done.

Trying to steer this thread back on topic for a moment, many nations face the prospect of obsolescence in their air forces but can't necessarily buy the latest top of the line kit (by which I'm directly implying the F-35 in any of it's flavours). Many of those nations would probably still like to buy western tech if possible, but their price range will likely limit them to Russian or Chinese designs. Meanwhile the enormous cost of developing the F-35 will keep the unit cost higher than certainly western nations would prefer.

So, for the sake of debate, would it be a sensible move to offset the development cost of the Lightning by adapting some of it's systems/avionics/etc to a lighter cheaper (and yes less capable but more affordable) airframe design that could be bought in significant numbers by 'third world' nations for whom the Lightning is a pipe dream and Mig, Sukoi or Chinese aircraft might be a step in the wrong political direction? The parallel that comes to my mind is back in the sixties when the F-4 Phantom was 'king of the hill' and the F-5 Freedom Fighter was a very palatable substitute that could be bought in large numbers. Quantity has a quality all of it's own, and when a Nation is thinking in terms of purchasing just 24 fighters for their air force, that isn't even two sqns, it's one frontline sqn, a training flight and a few attrition airframes. A Nation the size of Argentina which we have been discussing has a large geographical footprint and a frontline force of 12-14 fighters from a buy of 24 seems utterly inadequate for the task IMHO.

Is it a better idea alternatively to make the F-35 itself more affordable to these nations and bring down the unit cost through a larger overall order, spreading the development costs across the production run? My personal feeling is for the next two or three decades, the F-35 will be the only serious game in town and you either buy them or you will lose your next fight. But that's just my two cents worth...

Problem with western sourced low cost fighter is politics and return on investment/financial risk. Those few manufacturers with enough experience that could develop such a plane for relatively small sum already have other, more expensive planes to offer, be they new ones or second hand ones. It is not in their interest to cannibalize their own sales.

Any other potential manufacturer with less experience that would develop such a plane would spend more money on the development and would have a few billion of sunk costs. Market for such planes would still not be in the hundreds of planes over the next several decades.

Any such plane would have to sufficiently cheaper to both buy and operate to make sense, but having an air force, infrastructure, pilot training programme and so on already costs so much that actual difference in lifetime cost of whole air force system divided by number of fighters would not be vastly different from buying and operating a, say, used f-16.

Best chance for a cheap fighter from the west would be an offspring of T-X competition. FA-50 is unfortunately managed by LM so I don't think it's going to be a serious contender as long as sales of used f-16 are an option. So another decade or two. An earlier option would be if Northrop Grumman somehow won the competition. Their entry could perhaps be turned into a multirole fighter a bit sooner, solely because there would be more internal political will for such a move.

I'm not saying I have the answers, I'm just posing the question for discussion. The F-35 was supposed to be the cheaper end of the 'high/low' mix with the F-22 being the expensive end, much as back in the 70s the F-16 was the lighter end of the mix with the F-15. It depends on your point of view of the future at this stage whether you believe the Lightning can achieve this status, as it is entirely possible it could price itself out of the market, certainly if it doesn't achieve sufficient orders to bring the unit cost down to an acceptable level. Its about more than an airframe though, its about the technology embodied within, the situational awareness, sensor fusion, and stealth of course.

Would it be a viable option to translate some of this technology to a more affordable airframe for primarily export purposes to keep some non aligned countries at least somewhat aligned or should all efforts be directed to bringing down the costs of the F-35 so it can fill that niche? For reasons of stealth the airframe would have to be a fresh design, but looking around there appears to be no shortage of candidates on the drawing boards at least. Now that the principles of stealth are known and understood it seems any nation that can design military jets has at least a paper proposal, though how capable they would be in reality is another matter.

The F-35 price is steadily dropping, just as it was forecast to do.

As the higher rate production orders set in, it is going to continue to do so.

The most recent cost was:

• F-35A: $98 million

• F-35B: $104 million

• F-35C: $116 million

This does not include the engine.

However, the estimate now for 2019, when the larger build rates begin to come into play is going to be $85 million with the engine.

Pretty dramatic...and that will be for the vast majority of the thousands of aircraft that will be bought..

One of the later cost lines shows the following:



This is going to have a huge impact going forward. Getting a 5th generation aircraft like the F-35A for $85 million flyaway cost will be great thing if they can achieve it. I believe they will.

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Obi Wan Russell said:

Would it be a viable option to translate some of this technology to a more affordable airframe for primarily export purposes to keep some non aligned countries at least somewhat aligned or should all efforts be directed to bringing down the costs of the F-35 so it can fill that niche? For reasons of stealth the airframe would have to be a fresh design, but looking around there appears to be no shortage of candidates on the drawing boards at least. Now that the principles of stealth are known and understood it seems any nation that can design military jets has at least a paper proposal, though how capable they would be in reality is another matter.

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I can’t tell you how much I’ve looked forward to a serious and facts based discussion regarding this topic. In regards to the issues raised by Obi Wan and Totoro. They are both correct. Major aircraft design companies will not want to invest resources to construct an entry level combat aircraft that could dilute sales or resources for the manufacture of their top of the line combat aircraft. Also something to consider is that maybe the governments (that excerpt some control over the design and a manufacture of aircraft) do not wish every tin pot dictator or unstable government to have an air force which could pose a possible threat.

With that said, if an aircraft where available today similar to the F-5E or the Mirage III/Kfir (in the 18 to 22 million price range) there would be sales in the 1,000 to 2,000 unit range. These aircraft had a low acquisition cost and a low operational/maintenance cost which makes them very attractive to air forces on a budget or for 2nd tier air force such as Taiwan of South Korea, to supplement their best aircraft. These aircraft would also be essential in any potential conflict as attrition would set in.


So, who will design and manufacture these aircraft? The design and manufacturing could not be done by one nation due to the design costs and limited number of units constructed. A possible scenario I see would be a firm such as the Mikoyan-Gurevich Design Bureau, or Dassault, designing the aircraft and a consortium of nations (Taiwan, Vietnam and Philippines or Argentina Brazil and Peru, etc…) pooling resources and technical expertise to provide a manufacturing base with sufficient units to reduce the costs.

So, who will design and manufacture these aircraft? The design and manufacturing could not be done by one nation due to the design costs and limited number of units constructed. A possible scenario I see would be a firm such as the Mikoyan-Gurevich Design Bureau, or Dassault, designing the aircraft and a consortium of nations (Taiwan, Vietnam and Philippines or Argentina Brazil and Peru, etc…) pooling resources and technical expertise to provide a manufacturing base with sufficient units to reduce the costs.

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I wouldn't place much hope in Dassault. Outside of the nEUROn Drone and the Rafale They seem uninterested in expanding there line. And price wise the Rafale is comparable to F35. And Mig is state owned by Russia which digs up it's own issues.
Also your list has a issue Taiwan.
The ROC is a Kiss of death for partnerships As the PRC treats Taiwan like a Over possessive Would be High school Jock Bully in a one sided Romance. If you so much as look in Taiwan's Direction and Smirk Expect a Political and Possibly Economic swirly or at the very least Locker Knocker time. The PRC will do what ever it can to Isolate Taiwan from arms sales and Strategic partnerships. The US has gotten away with it as The US is a full Superpower and the PRC can't Cut it's ties to the US with out opening it's own wrists but Vietnam and Philippines or Argentina Brazil and Peru and the Ecta of your list Don't have the same level of leeway.
Also LM gets knocked in the Press by Critics but It's no better or worse then any other Contractor which makes me Think FA50 has a chance especially it KAI is the Prime contractor
The Textron Cessna Scorpion opens up a medium grade western attacker and manned alternative as well as possible point of start for Drones.
As well as the SAAB Gripen Which although the NG price today is pretty steep I am sure older units will become more available
Or for the Really Down and Out perhaps.... BIG PERHAPS India's HAL Tejas will actually succeed and be open for export.