I said they will try because this is the best moment they will ever have.
But that's only if they want independence at the time when this hypothetical economic dowturn occurs -- and before such a downturn occurs mainland-taiwan economic relations will only strengthen more, so a downturn in China will likely also mean a downturn in taiwan and east asia
I never said they have a chance.
So.. you're saying the taiwanese government in such a downturn will still pursue a route of offical independence even though they know they're probably going into a conflict and come out on the losing side?
It's an insult to call my claims pure fantasy because you think China is so big and squashing and everybody just wants to join your gang.
Not because we think China is so big and squashing everybody (though that may be true in a few decades) -- it's because there would be no rationale to declare independence. It would be a stupid decision on Taiwan's part and I expect they would be more interested in weathering the economic downturn than going forth to declare independence and risk war.
You are confident that Taiwan can be invaded and the last resistant soldier killed because you have soldiers and equipment in far greater numbers than they. So the only possible outcome for you is that Taiwan must surrender to PRC because the PRC is the most powerful thing on earth? Right?
??? I don't even know where this came from.
But in a similar vein, are you so confident that Taiwan would desire independence in an economic downturn knowing it will lead to war which may then spread beyond the strait and engulf the entire westpac and more?
Sorry man, but you misunderstand something. I analyzed a ROC perspective to realize the seemingly important independance wish.
The keywords I think, in this entire post. How important will independence be to Taiwan, even the pro independence factions, when they're in the midst of an economic downturn, when they know that declaring independence will effectively end their lifestyles as they know it and lead to instability through the region and the world?
This is an analyses on what logical acts ROC actors will do in order to achieve this goal. I pointed out that under a severe economic crisis that is impeding on PRC as part of all normal business cycles, the economic strings will be for some time severely cut. These economic strings are the major glue for peaceful unification arguments. So radical elements in Taiwan will during this moment of crisis face the least opposition in Taiwan for a declaration of independence because Bejing has ONLY the military option left. My analyses pointed out that radical Taiwanese elements (from a PRC perspective) will try to use this exact time to try to declare independance. I consider it possible, not inevitable.
Inevitable would be rather the military clash between Taiwan and PRC in the aftermath of this declaration. I don't know if Taiwan can defend itself, but, because Taiwan knows the PRC will pull the trigger due to their provocation, resistance could be well prepared in advance. That's no claim that one or the other side wins, just that a very influential group in Taiwan will soon face circumstances under which they and the PRC are both inclined to commit acts that would lead to a military showdown.
So you've made near a dozen posts now on predicting something which will probably never happen -- sure it's interesting to speculate, just like predicting how humanity might deal with an alien invasion or a zombie apocalypse.
If you want to speculate on what a mainland-taiwan military conflict will look like, fine, but the scenario you put forth leading to such a conflict raises more than a few eyebrows.
