List of results from China-Taiwan computer war simulations.
- Thread starter Phead128
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The situation of Iraqi scuds in 1991 and chinese SRBMs in 2011 are very different, so comparing the two does not help your argument.
The mainstays of the SRBM force are DF-11s and DF-15s, and sinodefence.com gives some solid, if not outdated information of the potency of these weapons up to mid late 2000s.
At any rate chinese SRBMS are MUCH more accurate than Iraqi scuds.
a better example would be the russians and their use of the iskander tbm against georgia.
Obviously we're assuming most of the SRBMs the Chinese will fire will be guided. Even if only half were guided, and half were not, the worst CEP we can get is 500-600m. Throw a few unguided ones with submunition warheads at a target and see how it goes.
And then there's also long range cruise missiles and strike aircraft in the wings.
I do not disagree that real experience is important, but again I feel that direct comparisons of a PLA assault scenario on taiwan vs d day is awkward at best.
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Red___Sword
Junior Member
So how the topic's focus shifted, by a matter of words?
PRC having problem "taking out" what's on Taiwan island? Sure, we got dedicated threads at Navy, at Strategy, and even at World military blocks - This thread particularly, talking about a bunch of political-motivated "scientific" analysists, having good faith on ROC which stationed on Taiwan island, WINNING THE CONFLICT.
So why bother begging for F-16 C/D and AIM120 which "shelfed" at another location...?
You know, when you call yourself China (in this case, R.O.CHINA), you are supposed to fend off OTHERS besides mainland commies, as well. Care to run some simulation when the last portion of shelter of which ROC stands (in this case, Taiwan Islands), being invaded, hammered, violated, by some one else, and PRC sit back? How good and faithful that result can be?
Simulations like this (the one the original thread mentioned), doing nothing but Sinophobia, and those stands at the "last portion of bla bla" there, see the word "Sino-" there?
PRC having problem "taking out" what's on Taiwan island? Sure, we got dedicated threads at Navy, at Strategy, and even at World military blocks - This thread particularly, talking about a bunch of political-motivated "scientific" analysists, having good faith on ROC which stationed on Taiwan island, WINNING THE CONFLICT.
So why bother begging for F-16 C/D and AIM120 which "shelfed" at another location...?
You know, when you call yourself China (in this case, R.O.CHINA), you are supposed to fend off OTHERS besides mainland commies, as well. Care to run some simulation when the last portion of shelter of which ROC stands (in this case, Taiwan Islands), being invaded, hammered, violated, by some one else, and PRC sit back? How good and faithful that result can be?
Simulations like this (the one the original thread mentioned), doing nothing but Sinophobia, and those stands at the "last portion of bla bla" there, see the word "Sino-" there?
»Ø¸´: List of results from China-Taiwan computer war simulations.
Although it will not come to a war, if it did taiwan would be finished in a few days, and the USN 6th fleet steaming into the strait would end up an expensive reef for future divers to explore, US, Japanese and South Korean bases in the region would become smoking craters. This is China today, not mao's China.
And some people are comparing iraqi scuds with modern chinese ballistic missile capabilities? Are you serious? The country that has the precision to strike at satellites in orbit moving at 20,000km/h is supposed to have 80's iraqi missile tech? Jesus.
Although it will not come to a war, if it did taiwan would be finished in a few days, and the USN 6th fleet steaming into the strait would end up an expensive reef for future divers to explore, US, Japanese and South Korean bases in the region would become smoking craters. This is China today, not mao's China.
And some people are comparing iraqi scuds with modern chinese ballistic missile capabilities? Are you serious? The country that has the precision to strike at satellites in orbit moving at 20,000km/h is supposed to have 80's iraqi missile tech? Jesus.
This is an odd thread. In the 17th century the Netherlands lost one war against England in the 1650's, won one in the 1660's, won another in the 1670's while at the same time fighting France and the bishoprics(!) of Munster and Cologne. But in 1689 the town council of Amsterdam recognized that in future England would be superior because it was going to be as well organised as the Netherlands while being much larger. So now China is and will remain much stronger than Taiwan. The trump card of China is patience.
Re: »Ø¸´: List of results from China-Taiwan computer war simulations.
you are over estimate of chinese capability and under estimate US navies.
you are over estimate of chinese capability and under estimate US navies.
Red___Sword
Junior Member
Re: »Ø¸´: List of results from China-Taiwan computer war simulations.
Oh yeah, you come to THIS thread now.
In case you didn't read my #23 post, mind I remind you this thread is about Taiwan's in-house computer simulation that they win the day by themselves, warranted, by dodging the commies' first wave of strike?
Oh yeah, you come to THIS thread now.
In case you didn't read my #23 post, mind I remind you this thread is about Taiwan's in-house computer simulation that they win the day by themselves, warranted, by dodging the commies' first wave of strike?
The balance of power is completely reversed within the Taiwan straits.
I mean, didn't people think Russia would crush Japan, but merely 30 years worth of Meiji Reforms permitted a relatively unknown and backwater Japan to defeat a European Great Power for the first time?
Do not underestimate similarly 30 years worth of economic reform and liberalization in China.
I mean, didn't people think Russia would crush Japan, but merely 30 years worth of Meiji Reforms permitted a relatively unknown and backwater Japan to defeat a European Great Power for the first time?
Do not underestimate similarly 30 years worth of economic reform and liberalization in China.
Vlad Plasmius
Junior Member
This scenario is downright cartoonish. China would not need to use civilian vessels or civilian aircraft to deploy 100,000 troops and it is unlikely it would need to make such a large initial deployment to secure a position in Taichung anyway. That kind of force would be of such size as to occupy the whole city of Taichung, not merely secure the airport and harbor. I believe they could achieve such a thing with only 20,000 troops. However, even if they used 40,000 troops it would still leave 60,000 troops in their scenario free to go after other parts of Taiwan, thus preventing the situation they describe. It also seems they are not even allowing for the likelihood that China would secure the Pescadores during hostilities.
This scenario's predictions regarding the air force is also bizarre. Potential collapse of the openings from a raid is one obvious weakness, but it also relies on the idea that China would not invade the eastern coastline at all. That presumption would have been reasonable a decade or two ago, but now there is really no reason to believe it would not be done for the very purpose of eliminating the threat envisioned in this war game and then utilizing the same infrastructure.
This scenario's predictions regarding the air force is also bizarre. Potential collapse of the openings from a raid is one obvious weakness, but it also relies on the idea that China would not invade the eastern coastline at all. That presumption would have been reasonable a decade or two ago, but now there is really no reason to believe it would not be done for the very purpose of eliminating the threat envisioned in this war game and then utilizing the same infrastructure.
supercat
Major
None of the simulations means anything because as I suspected, most young Taiwanese do not want to fight.
From the Wires
Wednesday, Nov 30, 2011 10:20 PM Eastern Standard Time
Taiwanese Youth Losing Taste For China Fight
By Peter Enav, Associated Press
Topics:From the Wires
TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — Signs that Taiwan was preparing for possible war with China were once everywhere: huge posters calling for liberating the Chinese mainland and lengthy school yard drills training students to fight the communist enemy. That culture has changed so much since a detente process began in the 1990s that many young Taiwanese are now unwilling to take up arms to protect the island’s self-rule.
A magazine survey published this week appears to confirm that Taiwan’s process of demilitarization is rapidly gaining steam. Based on a sample of students aged 12 to 17, it found only 38.7 percent would be ready to see either themselves or a family member fight if a new war broke out, while 44.3 percent would not. The remainder had no opinion.
“It goes without saying that the number of Taiwanese willing to fight has come down significantly in recent years,” said former Deputy Defense Minister Lin Chong-pin. “I’m even surprised that the number of pro-defense people cited by the magazine is so high.”
The Defense Ministry declined to comment on the survey, saying it had no information on the way it was conducted. Commonwealth said it was carried out by mail between Oct. 17 and Nov. 4 and that the 3,715 responses represented a 74 percent return on the 5,054 questionnaires it sent.
Aside from shining a light on the huge changes now taking place in Taiwanese society, the Commonwealth findings offer a big challenge for Taiwan’s military, which is already struggling with a constricted defense budget and the reluctance of the United States to supply it with the weapons it says it needs to cope with China’s ambitious military modernization.
While Taiwan plans to end its current system of 11-month mandatory male conscription in favor of an all-volunteer force by 2014, a lack of funds and difficulty in attracting recruits are almost certain to push that date back by several years. That will leave the military dependent on large numbers of apparently unmotivated draftees.
Tamkang University military specialist Alexander Huang says the negative trends in volunteer force recruiting are especially worrying.
“I have been asking university students for several years now whether they would be willing to join an all-volunteer military,” he said. “I get positive responses from no more than 2 or 3 percent.”
Taiwan, which split from China amid civil war in 1949, has been engaged in a gradual program of detente with the mainland over the past two decades, culminating in Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou’s efforts to bring the sides ever closer together, mostly through a series of ambitious commercial initiatives.
But China has never renounced its long-standing threat to take over the island by force should it move to make its de facto independence permanent, or delay unification indefinitely. It currently aims an estimated 1,500 missiles at Taiwanese targets, and conducts frequent drills simulating an invasion across the 100-mile- (160-kilometer-) wide Taiwan Strait.
Despite the threats and the missiles, present day Taiwan is a remarkably un-militarized society, with few signs of a military presence outside of Defense Ministry facilities. Uniformed military personnel are rarely seen in major cities, and while highlights of annual war games are shown on television to boost morale, few people outside of the armed forces take them very seriously.
Both Huang and Lin ascribe the lack of military consciousness to the rapid improvement in relations with China, which they said made it difficult for Taiwanese young people to conceive of the possibility of a return to the tension of the past.
“The atmosphere in cross-strait relations is so relaxed now,” Huang said. “It’s difficult to envision a war.”
Additional factors Huang cited for low military consciousness include the aversion of Taiwanese young people to military-style discipline and their belief that a military framework is incompatible with the “cyber lifestyle” many of them covet.
Fifteen-year-old Taipei high school student Gao Yu-kai explained his own lack of willingness to fight an invading Chinese force by saying it made no sense to participate in a losing effort.
“We could never beat China,” he said. “They are just too strong.”
The pessimism of Taipei students comes against the background of the continuing drop in defense expenditures as a proportion of GDP, and Taiwan’s recent failure to convince the United States — its most important strategic partner — to sell it new F-16 jet fighters, for years the leading item on Taiwan’s military wish list.
Those developments — and Ma’s 2009 announcement that Taiwan’s military should henceforth see disaster relief as its main priority — appear to have done much to deflate whatever military consciousness survived the beginning of detente with the mainland in the early 1990s and the development of a relationship that now includes the arrival of thousands of Chinese tourists in Taiwan everyday and the maintenance of hundreds of weekly flights across the Taiwan Strait.
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From the Wires
Wednesday, Nov 30, 2011 10:20 PM Eastern Standard Time
Taiwanese Youth Losing Taste For China Fight
By Peter Enav, Associated Press
Topics:From the Wires
TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — Signs that Taiwan was preparing for possible war with China were once everywhere: huge posters calling for liberating the Chinese mainland and lengthy school yard drills training students to fight the communist enemy. That culture has changed so much since a detente process began in the 1990s that many young Taiwanese are now unwilling to take up arms to protect the island’s self-rule.
A magazine survey published this week appears to confirm that Taiwan’s process of demilitarization is rapidly gaining steam. Based on a sample of students aged 12 to 17, it found only 38.7 percent would be ready to see either themselves or a family member fight if a new war broke out, while 44.3 percent would not. The remainder had no opinion.
“It goes without saying that the number of Taiwanese willing to fight has come down significantly in recent years,” said former Deputy Defense Minister Lin Chong-pin. “I’m even surprised that the number of pro-defense people cited by the magazine is so high.”
The Defense Ministry declined to comment on the survey, saying it had no information on the way it was conducted. Commonwealth said it was carried out by mail between Oct. 17 and Nov. 4 and that the 3,715 responses represented a 74 percent return on the 5,054 questionnaires it sent.
Aside from shining a light on the huge changes now taking place in Taiwanese society, the Commonwealth findings offer a big challenge for Taiwan’s military, which is already struggling with a constricted defense budget and the reluctance of the United States to supply it with the weapons it says it needs to cope with China’s ambitious military modernization.
While Taiwan plans to end its current system of 11-month mandatory male conscription in favor of an all-volunteer force by 2014, a lack of funds and difficulty in attracting recruits are almost certain to push that date back by several years. That will leave the military dependent on large numbers of apparently unmotivated draftees.
Tamkang University military specialist Alexander Huang says the negative trends in volunteer force recruiting are especially worrying.
“I have been asking university students for several years now whether they would be willing to join an all-volunteer military,” he said. “I get positive responses from no more than 2 or 3 percent.”
Taiwan, which split from China amid civil war in 1949, has been engaged in a gradual program of detente with the mainland over the past two decades, culminating in Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou’s efforts to bring the sides ever closer together, mostly through a series of ambitious commercial initiatives.
But China has never renounced its long-standing threat to take over the island by force should it move to make its de facto independence permanent, or delay unification indefinitely. It currently aims an estimated 1,500 missiles at Taiwanese targets, and conducts frequent drills simulating an invasion across the 100-mile- (160-kilometer-) wide Taiwan Strait.
Despite the threats and the missiles, present day Taiwan is a remarkably un-militarized society, with few signs of a military presence outside of Defense Ministry facilities. Uniformed military personnel are rarely seen in major cities, and while highlights of annual war games are shown on television to boost morale, few people outside of the armed forces take them very seriously.
Both Huang and Lin ascribe the lack of military consciousness to the rapid improvement in relations with China, which they said made it difficult for Taiwanese young people to conceive of the possibility of a return to the tension of the past.
“The atmosphere in cross-strait relations is so relaxed now,” Huang said. “It’s difficult to envision a war.”
Additional factors Huang cited for low military consciousness include the aversion of Taiwanese young people to military-style discipline and their belief that a military framework is incompatible with the “cyber lifestyle” many of them covet.
Fifteen-year-old Taipei high school student Gao Yu-kai explained his own lack of willingness to fight an invading Chinese force by saying it made no sense to participate in a losing effort.
“We could never beat China,” he said. “They are just too strong.”
The pessimism of Taipei students comes against the background of the continuing drop in defense expenditures as a proportion of GDP, and Taiwan’s recent failure to convince the United States — its most important strategic partner — to sell it new F-16 jet fighters, for years the leading item on Taiwan’s military wish list.
Those developments — and Ma’s 2009 announcement that Taiwan’s military should henceforth see disaster relief as its main priority — appear to have done much to deflate whatever military consciousness survived the beginning of detente with the mainland in the early 1990s and the development of a relationship that now includes the arrival of thousands of Chinese tourists in Taiwan everyday and the maintenance of hundreds of weekly flights across the Taiwan Strait.
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