Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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Blitzo

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True, but the PLAAF is already mass producing munitions to handle both target-sets above.

This gets back the same issue I mentioned earlier:

You already have (1) CMs + (2) ALCMs + (3) Cluster Gliders + (4) 500kg LGBs.

Use (3) on the Mech forces, and for the Airbase use (1+2) in the first wave and follow up with (3+4)

p.s I would swap the LGBs with Satt/IIR/MMW guidance though, I agree on that point.

Ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and ALCMs are good for high value targets yes, however the stocks of them for conducting individual target strikes and re-attack capabilities is much more limited than fixed wing strike PGMs.
In a real conflict, those weapons would operate in conjunction with PGMs, e.g. launch two dozen BMs/CMs/ALCMs at an airbase to significantly degrade their operations, and while their aircraft are on the ground during that time in the next few hours, come in with four strike aircraft each carrying twelve 250kg PGM wing kit bombs to launch 48 weapons at the 48 individual points on the airbase to permanently take it out of action.

Cluster bombs are useful for mechanized forces, yes for interdiction against fixed formations.
Against moving formations, you'd want something able to hit moving targets, including if they are operating in a more dispersed manner.


I think 500kg PGMs have a role, where that much high explosive is just needed.
But they limit targets engaged/sortie, and that is why I am such an advocate for 250kg and 100kg PGMs on multi-ejector racks.

The flexibility, firepower, between two 500 kg PGMs versus twelve 250 kg PGMs cannot be understated, yet both of those loadouts need the same number and type of pylons.
 

Mohsin77

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In a real conflict, those weapons would operate in conjunction with PGMs, e.g. launch two dozen BMs/CMs/ALCMs at an airbase to significantly degrade their operations, and while their aircraft are on the ground during that time in the next few hours, come in with four strike aircraft each carrying twelve 250kg PGM wing kit bombs to launch 48 weapons at the 48 individual points on the airbase to permanently take it out of action.

We agree that CMs/ALCMs will strike first, and then the follow-up strike would be with bombs with kits. And you might be more efficient with 500lb bombs on multi-ejector racks. But that's not always going to be true though. You might still need heavier penetrators, and maybe even clusters with different warheads, including mines (which are very effective for slowing down runway repairs), or even more specialized munitions like thermobarics (if the base has a tunnel complex etc.) It would depend on the particulars of the airbase.

Either way, 500lb bombs on multi-ejector racks aren't a necessity in the above AFB strike. You could achieve the same effect (of permanently disabling the AFB) with a different ratio of CMs + other munitions.

Against moving formations, you'd want something able to hit moving targets, including if they are operating in a more dispersed manner.

Wait, hold on... If your cluster munitions can't hit moving formations, that's a big problem. Your priority should be to fix this problem before even thinking about multi-ejector racks etc. Even the CBU-105 could hit moving formations almost 20 years ago. To be clear: For any massed formation (moving or not) clusters (in whatever form) are the optimal solution. So make sure your clusters can hit moving formations before you start the war.

And as for dispersed smaller units on the move, that's a whole separate discussion man. Because now we've run into some hardcore doctrinal and dogmatic problems. Personally, I'm of the opinion that gunships like the Apache Longbow (controlled and managed by the Army itself) are better for this level of CAS, compared to anything the Air Force will offer the Army. There's a whole history of the USAF-ARMY rivalry on CAS budgets to consider here, and the story of the Apache's predecessor (which was murdered at birth by the USAF, just to steal the CAS budget from Congress for itself.)
 

Blitzo

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We agree that CMs/ALCMs will strike first, and then the follow-up strike would be with bombs with kits. And you might be more efficient with 500lb bombs on multi-ejector racks. But that's not always going to be true though. You might still need heavier penetrators, and maybe even clusters with different warheads, including mines (which are very effective for slowing down runway repairs), or even more specialized munitions like thermobarics (if the base has a tunnel complex etc.) It would depend on the particulars of the airbase.

Either way, 500lb bombs on multi-ejector racks aren't a necessity in the above AFB strike. You could achieve the same effect (of permanently disabling the AFB) with a different ratio of CMs + other munitions.

I'm not saying that every target on an airbase is serviceable with 250kg bombs...


Wait, hold on... If your cluster munitions can't hit moving formations, that's a big problem. Your priority should be to fix this problem before even thinking about multi-ejector racks etc. Even the CBU-105 could hit moving formations almost 20 years ago. To be clear: For any massed formation (moving or not) clusters (in whatever form) are the optimal solution. So make sure your clusters can hit moving formations before you start the war.

The submunitions are of course able to hit moving targets within the area that they are dispersed, what I mean is that the dispenser itself is not able to make course corrections to deploy it's submunitions on a formation actively moving.
The WCMD satellite guided variant improves on this somewhat, but ideally you'd have some level of terminal laser or ImIR seeker to allow for optimal dispersion.


And as for dispersed smaller units on the move, that's a whole separate discussion man. Because now we've run into some hardcore doctrinal and dogmatic problems. Personally, I'm of the opinion that gunships like the Apache Longbow (controlled and managed by the Army itself) are better for this level of CAS, compared to anything the Air Force will offer the Army. There's a whole history of the USAF-ARMY rivalry on CAS budgets to consider here, and the story of the Apache's predecessor (which was murdered at birth by the USAF, just to steal the CAS budget from Congress for itself.)

Well yeah.

I am saying for all of the above missions (anti airbase, anti mechanized), the 250kg PGM class offers the best balance of warhead size and targets engaged/sortie, in the most dynamic and responsive manner.

This doesn't mean that other munitions are not also useful or even better optimized for specific target types, but that 250kg PGMs offers the most flexibility and one of the largest magazine sizes per sortie.
 

Bellum_Romanum

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If the political leadership in Taiwan decides to unilaterally change the statusquo by declaring what is still essentially an illegal proclamation of "Independence" since that notion and declaration goes against Republic of China's (ROC) own constitution why can't the the PLA execute a decapitation strike against the political authority in Taiwan similar to what the U.S. tried and failed to accomplish in Serbia during NATO’S war against Slobodan Milosevic for the Kosovo War, and the "Shock and Awe" campaign which was really designed to strike and kill Saddam Hussein and his henchmen hoping to quicken the U.S. military operation.

Taiwan isn't a legally recognized country in the United Nations therefore it's legal status is not the same of the dejure state of Ukraine where it's a legally recognized sovereign state by the U.N.

Separating the political leadership from the military would perhaps lessen the unnecessary bloodshed between what's essentially Chinese soldiers, sailors, marines, and airmen knowing and acknowledging that there's a significant amount of officers in the ROC military who wish nothing but reunification with the mainland, not to mention their values often clash with the growing western values of the Taiwanese political class and people espoused by the current government led by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

Essentially, what am advocating for is for employing the theory of Col. John Warden's Col. “five rings,” which returned to the vision of a decisive strike against enemy leadership through airpower, with the expectation that the target country would quickly fold.
 
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Mohsin77

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I am saying for all of the above missions (anti airbase, anti mechanized), the 250kg PGM class offers the best balance of warhead size and targets engaged/sortie, in the most dynamic and responsive manner.

This doesn't mean that other munitions are not also useful or even better optimized for specific target types, but that 250kg PGMs offers the most flexibility and one of the largest magazine sizes per sortie.

Well, I've listed my skepticism of this approach, so I guess we'll just agree to disagree on this issue.

Ultimately, the PLAAF & PLA will need to decide which path/systems to focus their resources on.

In any case, good discussion.
 

lych470

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No one said you didn't, when did this become all about you!

You fight a war with what you have saying 'putting their money where their mouths are' when they are obviously capable of producing said arms but choose not to acquire them means either they are broke or they have an alternate game plan, since there's outwardly no indication of the former it would leans towards the latter. Rather than analysing what that game plan might be, there's a bunch of fluff about well it will better if they had X and Y, Why is that, is it because there's only one 'right' way to do things?

When presented with an alternate scenario such rhetorical gems as 'I'm well aware....' and 'Let's not try to copium it...' are used, bravo!
Having more options and more combined arms operations is never a bad thing.
 
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