Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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Mohsin77

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The only widespread PGM in PLA service is the 500kg LGB.
The 500kg munitions dispenser and 100kg LGB/satenav bomb might have begun introduction in service, I would say these two are respectively in the "Initial Service Fielding/Tactics" phase.
Of course, if both of those can be proliferated in large numbers, that would be a significant boost in capability.


However, the reason why I am very much unimpressed by the 500kg LGB (and also the 100kg LGB/satnav bomb so far) is because of multiple ejector racks.


Let me demonstrate what I mean:
View attachment 84571
This is a JH-7/A with four 500kg LGBs. It's got a central EFT, a targeting pod, and four SRAAMs. Not bad right?
But that's only four targets it can engage.

But those pylons are rated for much more than 500kg in payload, and 500kg is also overkill for most targets you'd be interested in engaging.
Here's a JH-7/A carrying 250kg unguided bombs -- twenty of them:
View attachment 84572

Those pylons are rated for that much weight. Imagine if those 250kg bombs were 250kg PGMs instead.
Sure, realistically using all four of the inner wing pylons for bombs is a bit much -- realistically you'd probably have three EFTs (one central, two underwing) -- but on a JH-7/A, that still leaves you with the two inner wing stations to carry twelve 250kg PGMs.

And we see the same for other aircraft, like J-10s (here with what looks like eight 250kg class bombs, four on dual multi racks and four on fuselage stations)...
View attachment 84575

.... H-6Ks, here seen carrying thirty six 250kg class bombs, six bomb per multi-ejector rack on each of its six weapons pylons...
View attachment 84573

... and Flankers carrying 250kg bombs as well on six bomb multi ejector racks
View attachment 84574



Of course, for those above pictures depicted, carrying that many bombs might not be fully realistic.
In the case of the Flanker in particular, no Flanker will ever carry that many bombs in a real mission, but even "only" carrying two multi racks of 250kg bombs will be twelve 250kg PGMs. Add on a targeting pod, a self protection jamming pod, a couple of SRAAMs and BVRAAMs and that is a very realistic strike loadout with self protection capability.

For the J-10, it will likely have to replace one of the forward intake stations with a targeting pod, and the other forward intake station with a self protection jamming pod. That leaves two dual racks and two rear fuselage stations for six total 250kg PGMs. Then there's the three EFTs and two SRAAMs, and you also get a respectable strike loadout.

For H-6K, it can actually probably take off and carry out a realistic strike mission with thirty six 250kg PGMs, especially if those PGMs have wing kits for range extension, in an environment where you mostly have air control with the enemy and plentiful supporting fighter escort and EW/ECM escort.


Heck, even if multi-racks with six 250kg bombs is too ambitious, even a triple rack for 250kg bombs will be fine, like what F-16 and Rafale have.




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All of this is to say -- maximizing targets successfully engaged/sortie is arguably the most important benefit of contemporary PGMs.

Maximizing targets/sortie, is enabled through:
1. Use of lower weight PGMs (mostly in the 250kg class which are sufficient for most soft and semi-hardened targets, or even better, 100kg class PGMs with built in wing kits (like SDB, SPICE 250, or Chinese products like TL-20, FT-7) that allow for ranges of about 100km....
2. Multi-ejector racks where multiple PGMs can be carried on one single pylon.
3. More advanced guidance methods -- usually combining satellite and laser guidance, but now also including more advanced terminal seekers like ImIR and MMW.


IMO, the PGM types that the PLA types would most benefit from adopting are:
- 250kg PGMs, to be carried on multi-ejector racks, six per rack for JH-7/A and J-16, perhaps triple or dual racks for J-10.They would be modular PGMs with satellite and laser guidance options and the ability to install an optional wing kit to extend range. The FT family of bombs offers this, as so:
View attachment 84576

- 100kg PGMs with about 100km range. These would be Sino-SDBs. Satellite guided as standard, with ImIR terminal guidance additional. Quad racks similar to SDB, SPICE-250, SPEAR 3. A number of such systems are already offered by the Chinese aerospace industry and tested, but again they are not committed to. TL-20, YL-14, FT-7 are examples of these.


Once the PLA commits to a family of 250kg PGMs and 100kg PGMs and -- most importantly -- multi-ejector racks for them, then that would be a major sign that they are taking A2G PGM strike seriously.

I see what you mean. Let's remember though, that tactical aircraft can only manage 1 or 2 targets per sortie anyway. And if you force a fighter to go back-and-forth with air-refuels, you'll just put it out of action for a longer period of time in maintenance once it lands.

However, where this all changes is if you have arsenal ships, like an H-6K loaded with 36 LGBs. The USAF used the B-52s for that purpose in Afghanistan, loaded out with an insane amount of JDAMs, just loitering over the battlefield, waiting to be vectored at CAS targets of opportunity. In the PLA-Taiwan scenario, when the PLAAF achieves total dominance, arsenal ships would be a nice luxury to have.
 
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Blitzo

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No one said you didn't, when did this become all about you!

Quoting someone else's post generally means that you are making a remark in response to said person's post.


You fight a war with what you have saying 'putting their money where their mouths are' when they are obviously capable of producing said arms but choose not to acquire them means either they are broke or they have an alternate game plan, since there's outwardly no indication of the former it would leans towards the latter. Rather than analysing what that game plan might be, there's a bunch of fluff about well it will better if they had X and Y, Why is that, is it because there's only one 'right' way to do things?

When presented with an alternate scenario such rhetorical gems as 'I'm well aware....' and 'Let's not try to copium it...' are used, bravo!

I agree -- you fight a war with what you have. That is why I am saying they should be starting to procure a large and credible PGM capability for their air fleet.

In reference to the bolded part -- yes, that is partly what I am getting at.
The finite amount of funding in context of other high priority modernization efforts for their combat aviation capabilities, is one of the major reasons why I believe they have not procured PGMs in large numbers in the recent past.
Naturally, they recognized that higher priority domains required funding, namely a large number of systems needed to be able to contest air superiority, long range/stand off ALCMs, EW/ECM, among others.
That is all reasonable, and I agree with the lgoic.

But now, the risks for a Taiwan contingency are increasing by the year and the scale and extent of such an operation will require substantial precision strike capabilities that are dynamic, capable of rapid BDA, capable of hitting moving targets, and able to hit a large number of targets in a short amount of time, or a combination thereof, which would be very difficult to be serviceable by other strike systems like MLRS, SRBMs, ALCMs or attack helicopters.
So, I believe that a largescale PGM/precision strike capability by fixed wing platforms is no longer a luxury but a necessity -- this is helped by their prior decades of work in developing and buying the systems necessary to achieve air superiority.

If they have an "alternate game plan" to the strike capabilities that is deliverable by PGMs, we have not seen it.
For a Taiwan contingency, long range guided MLRS is not a replacement for fixed wing precision strike that is offered by PGMs, but rather both complement each other.


Alternatively, the PLA are just still being too cheap and unwilling to pay the money for key capabilities to develop proficiency, training and doctrine in during peacetime. We still see this for a number of key subsystems even outside of air power, and in other domains in recent PLA history as well, until they either realized XYZ was important, or until they eventually found the money for it.
 

Blitzo

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I see what you mean. Let's remember though, that tactical aircraft can only manage 1 or 2 targets per sortie anyway.

It depends, what do you mean by a "target"?
For example, is an air base merely one target, or is it multiple targets?
Or, is a mechanized company merely one target, or is it multiple targets?

In both of those cases, there are multiple individual desired impact points for each of the "one" targets.

For an airbase, you would want to strike a few key sections of runway, fuel, ammunition, control tower and radar, and as many of the aircraft on the ground as possible. Depending on how many aircraft that is, that could be as many as multiple dozen individual targets if you want to permanently put the airbase out of action.
For a modern strike fighter with 250kg or 100kg satellite guided bombs (e.g.: an F-15E can carry twenty eight 100kg bombs of the SPICE-250 satellite/ImIR guided type), you can literally engage twenty eight individual targets in the same pass where you rapidly ripple launch all of them at once.

For a mechanized company, if they are operating as a cohesive unit, similarly, you will have multiple impact points on multiple key vehicles or clusters of vehicles with your PGMs, which again can be done in one sortie.

For both of those examples, you will need multiple munitions for multiple impact points (i.e.: targets) deployed simultaneously or in very short succession, where maximizing targets/sortie (or no. of impact points/sortie) matters.

Or, putting it another way, for a strike mission, it is very likely that you will be faced with multiple targets in relatively close geographical proximity to each other, such that they can be engaged in the same sortie, but with each requiring its own guided munition to service.


And if you force a fighter to go back-and-forth with air-refuels, you'll just put it out of action for a longer period of time in the maintenance bay once it lands.

However, where this all changes is if you have arsenal ships, like an H-6K loaded with 36 LGBs. The USAF used the B-52s for that purpose in Afghanistan, loaded out with an insane amount of JDAMs, just loitering over the battlefield, waiting to be vectored at CAS targets of opportunity. In PLA-Taiwan scenario, when the PLAAF achieves total dominance, arsenal ships would be a nice luxury to have.

I disagree somewhat -- modern PGMs allows strike fighters to carry a large number of munitions that can be all employed in a single sortie or even a single pass.

In any case, for something like JH-7/A or J-16, carrying twelve 250kg PGMs is hardly a massive number, and is something F-15Es are designed to carry even just on their CFT stations alone, leaving the ventral fuselage mount out of it.

fCbZvJ2.jpeg
 

AndrewS

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I see what you mean. Let's remember though, that tactical aircraft can only manage 1 or 2 targets per sortie anyway. And if you force a fighter to go back-and-forth with air-refuels, you'll just put it out of action for a longer period of time in maintenance once it lands.

However, where this all changes is if you have arsenal ships, like an H-6K loaded with 36 LGBs. The USAF used the B-52s for that purpose in Afghanistan, loaded out with an insane amount of JDAMs, just loitering over the battlefield, waiting to be vectored at CAS targets of opportunity. In the PLA-Taiwan scenario, when the PLAAF achieves total dominance, arsenal ships would be a nice luxury to have.

Arsenal ships would have to launch powered munitions which cost a lot more than unpowered munitions dropped from aircraft (Guided JDAMs and SDBs start at around $40K)

Given the number of possible targets once the PLAAF have air dominance in Taiwan, an arsenal ship doesn't seem worth the cost.
Plus it would represent a lot of capability that is fairly vulnerable.

I think they would be better off with placing more MLRS launchers placed on cargo ships instead.
 

Volpler11

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Given we are in the age of UAVs, would it be better to offload bombing tasks to UAV or does ground attacking using manned plane still have a role to play?
 

tokenanalyst

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Russian air force is performing very badly. Clearly their "we don't use targeting pods, unguided bombs and rockets are just fine tactic" is clearly biting them in the ass. Don't be be surprised if we beging seeing more targeting pods in PLAAF service in few years time... they are most definetly looking at this.

Edit, Ecaedus wrote similar message at the same time...lol.
There is problem in trusting anything in social media, that guy is obviously inflating Russian loses for morale purposes, there is not real confirmation of most losses, most of the photos look the same and if Russia is doing so badly in the air then why the Ukrainians are so desperate for a no-fly zone? if they are doing so much damage to the Russians then they should establish one on their own. Until the dust is settle military analysts around the world will have to wait to learn from this.
 
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tokenanalyst

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A lot of people here commenting about the PLAAF while the biggest deal for that island are missiles, that island is ten times smaller than Ukraine and is at range off almost all Chinese missiles including short range ones which China has a lot, those missiles will destroy everything in Taiwan, military bases,airfields, ports, factories, industrial centers, government installations even before the Chinese fly their aircraft or a soldier set foot in Taiwan. That is what that island has feared most from China all this decades, their missiles. That is what was keeping a lot of U.S. presidents awake at night all this years.
 

tokenanalyst

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One question.
What are the possibilities of a civil war in Taiwan between the Kuomintang faction who consider themselves as the rightful rulers of all China and separatists in the future? A civil war that could bring the China and the US to the point of an all out confrontation?
 

Ex0

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A lot of people here commenting about the PLAAF while the biggest deal for that island are missiles, that island is ten times smaller than Ukraine and is at range off almost all Chinese missiles including short range ones which China has a lot, those missiles will destroy everything in Taiwan, military bases,airfields, ports, factories, industrial centers, government installations even before the Chinese fly their aircraft or a soldier set foot in Taiwan. That is what that island has feared most from China all this decades, their missiles. That is what was keeping a lot of U.S. presidents awake at night all this years.
Yeah I think china can also just use ship to land missiles, or just flatten with dumb bombs using bombers or even artillery after they airdrop heaps of troops. China doesn't need to use lots of expensive air to ground PGM.

Those are for non static targets and to support ground troops without risking attack from manpads etc. For static above ground targets like airports, runways, all military assets, comms, power plants etc, china can just use SRBM, cruise missiles from land or sea, or even multi rocket launchers from mainland.

Ground troops will have ATGM etc and as long as they secure landing site and troops and heavy equipment can flood in, it won't take long after that. They can be supported by helicopters and light/medium armor vehicles if the loitering drones and infantry need more firepower and the risk is worth the gains. If even more firepower is needed, H6 can just level whatever needs to be leveled. Once one gate is breached and open, shortly after all the gates will be open and they will be overwhelmed. In such a situation ATG PGM in massive numbers isn't necessary. I think a variety of loitering drones with ground attack and suicide attack capabilities in massive numbers would be a better idea and money better spent than normal fixed wing planes and A2G PGM, since I see mainly Taiwanese army hiding and avoiding any frontal fights apart from the first one to stop landing sites on the beaches. But can't H6 just bomb everything and clear everything after air superiority is achieved? Then endless loitering drones to make sure it stays safe.
 

Ex0

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One question.
What are the possibilities of a civil war in Taiwan between the Kuomintang faction who consider themselves as the rightful rulers of all China and separatists in the future? A civil war that could bring the China and the US to the point of an all out confrontation?
Not sure but that's a good question and something cpc should be aiming for. Offer them a deal, like if they surrender or help cpc fight and unify china, they can remain in power afterwards after they join CPC. Even if you don't agree or it's not politically feasible to keep the promise after, at least make the offer still to confuse and divide them lol.
 
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