Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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solarz

solarz

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muddie said:
People talking about upping defense spending and expanding nuke arsenal, something China is already doing. But IMO the biggest lesson so far seems that China needs to abandon its current, outdated nuclear weapons policy. Committing to no first use in the current geopolitical environment is beyond foolish.

Russia's nuclear threats work because it has an aggressive nuclear weapons policy: Russia will use nukes against vast convention attacks. This simple stance basically prevented any idea of a NATO intervention.

If China doesn't commit to escalating to nukes if attacked conventionally, especially in a Taiwan scenario, it's basically inviting U.S. intervention if something goes wrong during an invasion.
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Nuclear policy depends on how many nukes you have. I'm sure when China's nuclear arsenal reaches a certain amount, the nuclear policy will follow.
 
lcloo

lcloo

Captain
Topazchen said:
I wonder how many Chinese spies are embedded in the Taiwanese army and government. Must be so many
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There are many PLA moles in ROC military, history has shown some mole even hold rank of generals. This may even be true today.
 
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tokenanalyst

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daifo said:
Even Open Source are taking sides in the conflict In this case, not sure if the repo owner would pain itself to delete/censor the history of the russian related code, but it is always possible.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
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I think that post is not very relevant here, maybe in the conflict development thread.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

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lcloo said:
There are many PLA moles in ROC military, history has shown some mole even hold rank of generals. This may even be true today.
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Probably more true today. Part of the problem is actually ideological. Some of the ROC top brass are raised during the Chiang era (both father and son) and we’re raised to believe in reunification. Their hatred for “opponents” is only matched and sometimes exceeded by their hatred for Taiwan independence. If I recall correctly a Taiwanese general was tried during the early 2000s and got life sentence because he confessed that he didn’t do it for the money. Those who did it for bribes actually got off with lighter sentencing. Let that sink in for a moment.
 
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HeiTangSeng

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So far the reflections of UK/RUS conflicts have focused on the military aspects. But economically, reunification around 2027 (just to use a widely rumored number) will be a net gain for greater China. In fact, if Gordon Gekko was pitching, it will be a whale of a deal for the investors and management. It's like using Taiwan's assets to finance the takeover!

In this respect, it has nothing in common with the current war.
 
FriedButter

FriedButter

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HeiTangSeng said:
So far the reflections of UK/RUS conflicts have focused on the military aspects. But economically, reunification around 2027 (just to use a widely rumored number) will be a net gain for greater China. In fact, if Gordon Gekko was pitching, it will be a whale of a deal for the investors and management. It's like using Taiwan's assets to finance the takeover!

In this respect, it has nothing in common with the current war.
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Why is everyone (or most) people focusing on the year around 2027? What’s important about that besides reaching 1 of the PLA modernization goal.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

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FriedButter said:
Why is everyone (or most) people focusing on the year around 2027? What’s important about that besides reaching 1 of the PLA modernization goal.
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It is based on analysis by US analysts and Chinese speculation. Apparently on the civilian side there is a goal to connect mainland with Taiwan by HSR in 2035. If they don’t do it by 2027 at the latest then they have to delay construction.
 
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