Yes, I used words like think because
Yes, unlike you and most here I use words like think because it's both arrogant and hubris to think that a topic as complicated as war and geopolitics can elicit such definitive and absolute answers. Especially one that pits the forces of 2 powerful armed forces against each other.
Sadly over the course of the last few years, SDF has negatively evolved into an echo chamber where any opposing discussions and viewpoints are quickly muted and anything short of proclaiming china is the absolute best of everything and absolutely can't lose in any potential fight is quickly dismissed as hearsay and silly talk.
Any posts that even hints of the potential of significant challenges PLA may faced is quickly rebuked and rebuffed as if the PLA has Star Trek weaponry fighting the US which is equipped with sticks and stones.
It is because of this arrogance and overconfidence type if talk that stymie meaningful discussions.
As I've said in the post there are 2 immutable facts that won't change anytime soon..
1. Geography does not favor China in a potential all out far
2. China is surrounded by less than friendly neighbors.
Can PLA forces overcome these constraints?
Yes it can with both qualitative and quatitative advantages however it is not there yet. It has to be in an order of magnitude more.
Geography favor China if US attacks them.
We aren't talking about both sides clashing in neutral or US ground here.
We are talking about what China will do in the event of an American invasion, and there's plenty of evidence why America invading China is a disastrously poor move.
Everything else being equal, bases from both sides including up to 2nd IC would be equally destroyed. But that leaves bases in the US still fully operational. B2s and B21s
I think many here significantly overestimates PLAN's ASW capabilities while underestimates USN's subsurface forces. They will play a significant role in any conflict. I believe in an all out war SLCMs will play a crucial part in neutralizing hard targets on the mainland especially after reduction in air or sea assets.
If you're flying from the continental US, you might as well surrender already. How do you protect the Ryukyu occupation, Japan, SK (if SK doesn't sit out due to not wanting NK's mutual defense treaty being triggered against them) and Philippines with planes flying out of continental US?
SLCMs are TLAM. You can't hunt sense air defense networks with TLAM. How much did Russia firing naval Kalibers into Ukraine do?
China is not going to win an offensive war against US, but US can't win an offensive war either. Let's face it, the situation was far better for US in the past, yet US never attempted an invasion, because even when China had worse defenses, the country's favorable geography, ability to run over the Korean peninsula, nuclear arsenal, as well as ability to enter war production has deterred American invasion.
US only threatens about Taiwan nowadays because they're running out of time, and US politicians are becoming more and more insane. Insane is not an exaggeration, a lot of current gen US civilian officials lack common education and common sense. Many of their remarks aren't just ultra nationalistic, they're also flat out factually wrong and/or insane.
Repeating their civilian official cope which even their military leaders don't buy just makes you look as insane as they are.
While Russia had a reason to wait until 2022 because they were insulating their economy, US had no real reasons to wait, in fact, if they attack sooner, China might still be more vulnerable economically. No, US waited because even their own military knows it has marginal chances of success.
