Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

Minm said:

No, you have to demonstrate the ability to strike the US heartland. That's the only way to deter the American threat

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alfreddango said:

wouldn‘t that piss them off more?

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Atomicfrog said:

Yep making them unable to help or act outside the heart of the US homeland would be way better. I cannot see the US attacking mainland China for the same reasons.

Deterrence and clearly traced redlines is the way to go. Whatever loud they bark they are getting slowly isolated anyway and the tendancy is that less countries will care anymore. I would say that Canada is way more at risk of a full integration by the US than China to be invaded.

US will use Taiwan like Ukraine, throwing tomatos, sanctions and giving Intel help and weapons. China if it need to do a military move on Taiwan, need to use the hammer at full conventinal strenght. Nothing more, nothing less.

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Patchwork_Chimera said:

New way to cheese the meta just dropped. In lieu of the million man swim, may I suggest the 百万流浪气球 approach?

A crimson tide of these autonomous soaring beasts could wash over the United States in a matter of days! Our attempts to halt the deluge would be naught but a drop in the bucket! For each valiant dogfight we win, I fear 10 more 人民解放气球 will rush to take the martyr's place!

Each treacherous BALOONCAP sortie, beyond costing tens - if not hundreds - of thousands to generate, will place further wear on our already overstressed airframes, negatively impacting our force readiness and availability for years to come!

Adding even more hot air to the ballooning cost of resistance, our AAMs themselves cost up to a million bucks each! For us to expend all ~15,000 AMRAAMs never fired, supplemented by every last one of the 100,000 or so AIM-9s produced and never fired - we would be out nearly 30 Billion dollars worth of kit!

Even if our heroic pilots achieve a 1.00Pk with all munitions, and if each sortie yields 10 masterful aerial victories, it would take over 11,000 such combat sorties to deplete our stocks - an amount that would require *days* of brutal, World War 1-esque fighting to generate, even ignoring any (tragic) combat losses!

And yet, even this herculean effort would not suffice. Merely a tenth of the initial armada "Directionally Challenged RC Ballooners Club" have been ripped away from, what the Global Times insists to be, their peaceful, non-provocative, "High-Altitude Utopia with Chinese Characteristics."

Despite their numbers deflating to a mere 900,000人民解放气球, the rigorous training given to each of them (with help from the prevailing Westerly wind) allows them to push onwards. Across the United States, some take the opportunity to engage in widespread looting, vandalism, and arson across their communities. This is forcefully addressed by a nationwide Martial Law declaration, easing the strain put on (the now much heavier handed) Law Enforcement to quell the unrest.

As the first 人民解放气球 crests the DC horizon, the awe-inspiring scale of this wayward Ballooners Club will no doubt finally sink in. Assuming they share their first martyr's design, each of the 900,000 "surprise tourists" would measure approximately 200 feet (60 meters) in diameter, with a horizontal cross-section of ~.003sqkm. Thus, the "parallel-to-the-ground" area covered by all 900,000 balloons (when in the optimal "pancake" formation) comes out to approximately 2,500sqkm in total.

Here is what that looks like when centered 24.5km above The White House.

View attachment 107020

Here it is from another view, all the way from Manhattan:

View attachment 107021

Truly, at this point, we would have no hope left of fighting back. Such awe inspiring power, such immunity to attrition, and such demoralizing effects across such vast areas, all coalesce into a true Superweapon. The immortal 百万流浪气球, when unleashed, can bring entire civilizations to their knees!

As such, just as the Nuclear-centric "Capability Gaps" spurred an arms race that dominated the second half of the 20th Century,

It should be obvious that preventing (or inflating) a "Balloon Gap" will be impetus behind our century's defining competitive struggle.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

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siegecrossbow said:

I think the U.S. could just cutoff China's helium supply before something so ludicrous happens.

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ficker22 said:

Is it still the case that US has a near monopol on helium fought it was a WWII with Hindenbrug Zeppelin.

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siegecrossbow said:

Not much has changed.

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Patchwork_Chimera said:

New way to cheese the meta just dropped. In lieu of the million man swim, may I suggest the 百万流浪气球 approach?

A crimson tide of these autonomous soaring beasts could wash over the United States in a matter of days! Our attempts to halt the deluge would be naught but a drop in the bucket! For each valiant dogfight we win, I fear 10 more 人民解放气球 will rush to take the martyr's place!

Each treacherous BALOONCAP sortie, beyond costing tens - if not hundreds - of thousands to generate, will place further wear on our already overstressed airframes, negatively impacting our force readiness and availability for years to come!

Adding even more hot air to the ballooning cost of resistance, our AAMs themselves cost up to a million bucks each! For us to expend all ~15,000 AMRAAMs never fired, supplemented by every last one of the 100,000 or so AIM-9s produced and never fired - we would be out nearly 30 Billion dollars worth of kit!

Even if our heroic pilots achieve a 1.00Pk with all munitions, and if each sortie yields 10 masterful aerial victories, it would take over 11,000 such combat sorties to deplete our stocks - an amount that would require *days* of brutal, World War 1-esque fighting to generate, even ignoring any (tragic) combat losses!

And yet, even this herculean effort would not suffice. Merely a tenth of the initial armada "Directionally Challenged RC Ballooners Club" have been ripped away from, what the Global Times insists to be, their peaceful, non-provocative, "High-Altitude Utopia with Chinese Characteristics."

Despite their numbers deflating to a mere 900,000人民解放气球, the rigorous training given to each of them (with help from the prevailing Westerly wind) allows them to push onwards. Across the United States, citizens begin to panic, and many seize the opportunity to engage in widespread looting, vandalism, and arson across their communities. This is forcefully addressed by a nationwide Martial Law declaration, easing the strain put on (the now much heavier handed) Law Enforcement to quell the unrest.

As the first 人民解放气球 crests the DC horizon, the awe-inspiring scale of this wayward Ballooners Club will no doubt finally sink in. Assuming they share their first martyr's design, each of the 900,000 "surprise tourists" would measure approximately 200 feet (60 meters) in diameter, with a horizontal cross-section of ~.003sqkm. Thus, the "parallel-to-the-ground" area covered by all 900,000 balloons (when in the optimal "pancake" formation) comes out to approximately 2,500sqkm in total.

Here is what that looks like when centered 24.5km above The White House.

View attachment 107020

Here it is from another view, all the way from Manhattan:

View attachment 107021

Truly, at this point, we would have no hope left of fighting back. Such awe inspiring power, such immunity to attrition, and such demoralizing effects across such vast areas, all coalesce into a true Superweapon. The immortal 百万流浪气球, when unleashed, can bring entire civilizations to their knees!

As such, just as the Nuclear-centric "Capability Gaps" spurred an arms race that dominated the second half of the 20th Century,

It should be obvious that preventing (or inflating) a "Balloon Gap" will be impetus behind our century's defining competitive struggle.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...

Patchwork_Chimera said:

New way to cheese the meta just dropped. In lieu of the million man swim, may I suggest the 百万流浪气球 approach?

A crimson tide of these autonomous soaring beasts could wash over the United States in a matter of days! Our attempts to halt the deluge would be naught but a drop in the bucket! For each valiant dogfight we win, I fear 10 more 人民解放气球 will rush to take the martyr's place!

Each treacherous BALOONCAP sortie, beyond costing tens - if not hundreds - of thousands to generate, will place further wear on our already overstressed airframes, negatively impacting our force readiness and availability for years to come!

Adding even more hot air to the ballooning cost of resistance, our AAMs themselves cost up to a million bucks each! For us to expend all ~15,000 AMRAAMs never fired, supplemented by every last one of the 100,000 or so AIM-9s produced and never fired - we would be out nearly 30 Billion dollars worth of kit!

Even if our heroic pilots achieve a 1.00Pk with all munitions, and if each sortie yields 10 masterful aerial victories, it would take over 11,000 such combat sorties to deplete our stocks - an amount that would require *days* of brutal, World War 1-esque fighting to generate, even ignoring any (tragic) combat losses!

And yet, even this herculean effort would not suffice. Merely a tenth of the initial armada "Directionally Challenged RC Ballooners Club" have been ripped away from, what the Global Times insists to be, their peaceful, non-provocative, "High-Altitude Utopia with Chinese Characteristics."

Despite their numbers deflating to a mere 900,000人民解放气球, the rigorous training given to each of them (with help from the prevailing Westerly wind) allows them to push onwards. Across the United States, citizens begin to panic, and many seize the opportunity to engage in widespread looting, vandalism, and arson across their communities. This is forcefully addressed by a nationwide Martial Law declaration, easing the strain put on (the now much heavier handed) Law Enforcement to quell the unrest.

As the first 人民解放气球 crests the DC horizon, the awe-inspiring scale of this wayward Ballooners Club will no doubt finally sink in. Assuming they share their first martyr's design, each of the 900,000 "surprise tourists" would measure approximately 200 feet (60 meters) in diameter, with a horizontal cross-section of ~.003sqkm. Thus, the "parallel-to-the-ground" area covered by all 900,000 balloons (when in the optimal "pancake" formation) comes out to approximately 2,500sqkm in total.

Here is what that looks like when centered 24.5km above The White House.

View attachment 107020

Here it is from another view, all the way from Manhattan:

View attachment 107021

Truly, at this point, we would have no hope left of fighting back. Such awe inspiring power, such immunity to attrition, and such demoralizing effects across such vast areas, all coalesce into a true Superweapon. The immortal 百万流浪气球, when unleashed, can bring entire civilizations to their knees!

As such, just as the Nuclear-centric "Capability Gaps" spurred an arms race that dominated the second half of the 20th Century,

It should be obvious that preventing (or inflating) a "Balloon Gap" will be impetus behind our century's defining competitive struggle.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...