Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

BTW this is tangentially related, anyone amazed at how China's zero covid stance changed so rapidly? If China can do a 180 on covid policies overnight, China can also do a 180 on reunification policies overnight too.

I think too many people have this idea that China will behave reactively, armed reunification will only happen if the US provokes China suddenly. As the covid has shown, China plays by its own timeline, maybe out of the blue, one night everything will be over.

coolgod said:

BTW this is tangentially related, anyone amazed at how China's zero covid stance changed so rapidly? If China can do a 180 on covid policies overnight, China can also do a 180 on reunification policies overnight too.

I think too many people have this idea that China will behave reactively, armed reunification will only happen if the US provokes China suddenly. As the covid has shown, China plays by its own timeline, maybe out of the blue, one night everything will be over.

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I think that may work only if the ROC military 国军 can launch a surprise coup de tat against the DPP authorities and secure the provincial government while calling upon the PLA to land troops in Songshan and Chiasan using Y-9s and Y-20s ASAP.

Otherwise, I don't really see how things could change overnight for China regarding the Taiwan problem?

I think a lot of people here assume that if taiwan unilaterally declares independence for some reason and China forced to invade, the taiwan armed forces will somehow have the morale of the 300 spartans at thermopylae and fight to the death, i don't think so, their morale are not high to begin with, vast majority of taiwan generals to rank/file soldiers prefer status quo, they are not looking forward to die because of tsai/dpp

Imagine being forced to fight war against superior PLA forces, a war they all knew being initiated by the DPP, there will be mass surrender, infighting, coup by generals are not out of the question

Unless somehow large american forces are already present right the moment they declare independence, and we all know that its unlikely.

Maikeru said:

Directly on point for this thread:

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All that article says is the continued posture of US led state media into supporting outlandish American territory claims and redrawing national borders in the eyes of the public.

Completely no different than to Putin when his media talks about "protecting" the four regions from Ukraine and "defending" the Donbass.

We shall see if the west is as a capable of waging special operations as Russia is, or perhaps even less capable?

The only take home message from article like these is that war will happen unless radical restructuring of US regime happens, US is instructing its media to talk about China in similar terms of how Russian media talked about Ukraine leading up to the war.

solarz said:

I agree with what you wrote except the last paragraph. If anything, the Americans are far less willing to fight against the Chinese than the Russians.

Russia is much weaker than China despite their nuclear arsenal. As such, the US has a lot of options to inflict pain. Notice how the crisis that led to the current war came on the footsteps of seven years of damaging sanctions. In contrast, China has been deftly deflecting every punch the US has been throwing so far, in a metaphorical contest of Taichi vs Boxing.

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They are more willing to inflict pain on Russia, but far less likely to send troops directly, while the reverse is true for China. They don't fear China at the primal level like Russia, so while they are far less likely to inflict punitive sanctions on China that would affect their quality of living, they would be more willing to send troops to harm's way - US cannon fodder dying doesn't strike fear in the same way, not even as much as severe economic pain.

coolgod said:

BTW this is tangentially related, anyone amazed at how China's zero covid stance changed so rapidly? If China can do a 180 on covid policies overnight, China can also do a 180 on reunification policies overnight too.

I think too many people have this idea that China will behave reactively, armed reunification will only happen if the US provokes China suddenly. As the covid has shown, China plays by its own timeline, maybe out of the blue, one night everything will be over.

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It's not that surprising. The Chinese government has been looking to end zero covid for a long time, but circumstances have not allowed it until the protests started. This gave the government the perfect opportunity to end the measures without incurring any blame for the subsequent mass infections, which government scientists had predicted.

Chilled_k6 said:

They won't be dying for a tiny island. They'll be dying for the continuation of US hegemony which is in the interest of Americans to continue to perpetuate on this world. That's their moral justification.

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When fighting an adversary, it is equally as important to properly assess his weaknesses as it is to properly assess his strengths. Failing to do so deprives you of opportunities for victory.

Much analysis in this thread assumes an implacable will to fight from the Americans. This could not be further from the truth, and both historically and judging from current events, the will to fight has been the greatest weakness of the American military since WW2, which is unsurprising because it is a military based on imperialism.

In the event of a direct armed conflict between China and the US, the swiftest course of victory is to strike at the heart of the US homeland.

solarz said:

In the event of a direct armed conflict between China and the US, the swiftest course of victory is to strike at the heart of the US homeland.

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wouldn‘t that piss them off more?

alfreddango said:

wouldn‘t that piss them off more?

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Yep making them unable to help or act outside the heart of the US homeland would be way better. I cannot see the US attacking mainland China for the same reasons.

Deterrence and clearly traced redlines is the way to go. Whatever loud they bark they are getting slowly isolated anyway and the tendancy is that less countries will care anymore. I would say that Canada is way more at risk of a full integration by the US than China to be invaded.

US will use Taiwan like Ukraine, throwing tomatos, sanctions and giving Intel help and weapons. China if it need to do a military move on Taiwan, need to use the hammer at full conventinal strenght. Nothing more, nothing less.

solarz said:

In the event of a direct armed conflict between China and the US, the swiftest course of victory is to strike at the heart of the US homeland.

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No, you have to demonstrate the ability to strike the US heartland. That's the only way to deter the American threat