"Got in a little hometown jam
So they put a rifle in my hand
Sent me off to a foreign land
To go and kill the yellow man"
Everything depends on the framing.
Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
- Thread starter tphuang
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"Got in a little hometown jam
So they put a rifle in my hand
Sent me off to a foreign land
To go and kill the yellow man"
Everything depends on the framing.
A more apt comparison for petro would be the power disparity between today's EU and the US, the former of which caved from just a dirty look from Nuland.
Russian gas, anyone?
A wise man has once said:
Going all out on the enemy from the beginning to try to end the conflict as soon as possible actually helps in minimizing civilian casualties.
It is when you hold back and lengthen the conflict that more civilians die.
Wait, are you guys expecting a Chinese version of the Iraq War? Victory on the battlefield is not the point, keeping war costs as low as possible and getting the support of the local people(at least do not uprise against you) are the most important thing in a war nowadays. If you can't get the support of the local people, then your enemy will keep supporting the local resistance force with guns, money, and advisors, and finally drag you down with guerrilla warfare. Russia's low-cost war model and seemingly weak diplomatic stance saved them from being harassed by guerrillas while saving a lot of money. The support of the local people is not achieved by slogans such as so-called democracy, but by the establishment of an effective governance system to ensure the livelihood of the local people. This is the biggest problem for China.
Taiwan region has a population of over 23 million, which is clearly more difficult to govern than the Donbas region, which has long favored Russia. A quick victory means a large number of potential enemies will hide in the civilian population, including those who have not had time to express their stance and the hostile leaders who have not had time to leave Taiwan. These people will continue to create demonstrations and various protests, and ordinary people in Taiwan who have not experienced the hardships of the war are easily attracted by their stupid slogans, even though those things will not bring any improvement to the Taiwanese.
Taiwan region has a population of over 23 million, which is clearly more difficult to govern than the Donbas region, which has long favored Russia. A quick victory means a large number of potential enemies will hide in the civilian population, including those who have not had time to express their stance and the hostile leaders who have not had time to leave Taiwan. These people will continue to create demonstrations and various protests, and ordinary people in Taiwan who have not experienced the hardships of the war are easily attracted by their stupid slogans, even though those things will not bring any improvement to the Taiwanese.
The opinion of the Taiwanese residents doesn't matter. Worst case scenario is they'll be sent down to rural China to work on a farm for a few years, cultural revolution style. And the experience in Xinjiang and Tibet really proves that China can control populations which have separatist tendencies
This is an idiotic understanding of the situation. Intentionally holding back simply prolongs the conflict and both sides are worst off for it.
The argument that the war should be dragged out to draw out potential enemies is most stupefying of all, is it better to deal with an disorganized enemy with no rear areas or an organized one? This is very basic military strategy.
There is no instance of a nation having benefited from prolonged warfare
Is literally in chapter 2.
For you the subject of Taiwan and China potential conflict is simply an academic exercise, expressing your interests and ideas on a subject matter that's far removed from your day-to-day activities let alone a subject that has both a direct and indirect visceral connection to your very identity. Which is why your response was and always be a prototypical b.s. coming from folks like you.
But if the subject matter we are discussing is very near, and dear close to your heart that I know can and will provoke a strong visceral reaction, your response wouldn't be just live and let live/c'est la vie. So I do take your suggestions not all but the ones I pointed out as patronizing and condescending which are obviously oblivious to you since you're not on the receiving end of your academically daft verbiage: China and Taiwan are inseparable and can't be debated by outsiders and non-Chinese period.
And as for your point or contentions on the use of violence, let me quote one of the most overlooked but influential academic historian, and political theorist on that subject on how humane your kind really are.
"The West won the world not by the superiority of its ideas or values or religion but rather by its superiority in applying organized violence. Westerners often forget this fact, non-Westerners never do."
Sam Huntington: Harvard Academic, author of the notable book titled" The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking Of the World Order.
Russia right now is benefiting from it. Local people in east Ukraine believe that the Kyiv regime has given them up. At the same time, they found that Russians actually treat them well. So they vote to be part of Russia. NATO is falling apart. Running out of their weapon stock and money.
A surprise attack on Taiwan and a quick victory would only work if the United States clearly cannot and is unwilling to fund would-be separatists in Taiwan. In this case, obviously, you guys are right. But if the discussion is to launch a war against Taiwan now, then Taiwan's reservists and soldiers are likely to mix with Taiwanese civilians and become a potential problem, especially in the face of possible foreign interference. This problem can be solved as much as possible through an effective blockade of the strait and internal gun bans and the seizure of weapons from the former Taiwan regime, but the series of chaos that will inevitably arise when re-establishing a government that rules over tens of millions of people is certain.
Peace, for now, is first because the US is not weak enough, and second, to make sure when reunification happens, the damage caused by the Taiwan regime and their supporter can be minimum. We have a whole high-speed railway plan to be done, we do not want some terrorist shows up and destroy the whole thing.
If you can’t defeat the US, then it won’t be short or easy.
China doesn't have to defeat the US completely, just deter a potential invasion.
Negotiated end to the civil war rather than using force is the strongly preferred solution.
As long as China deters foreign invasion, time favors the central government. They can just use political/economical incentives but also sanctions/blockades to force KMT into a peaceful surrender sooner or later.
When it comes to settling civil conflicts, as long as nobody is being violently attacked, China can wait for decades and slowly smooth things out.
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