Ladakh Flash Point
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Here's latest from Hu of Global Times
Main points:
1. PLA is fully confident of winning the conflict, no matter the scale it escalates to
2. Chinese side does not yet feel India have yet realised the determination and readiness for open war, they may yet attempt more provocations at this time
3. PLA will maintain their position of not firing the first shot, but should any PLA unit come under fire they will spare no expanse in wiping out the responsible unit on the Indian side. Should India seek to escalate any fire fights all units involved will be targeted for annihilation.
Hu's warning to New Delhi: know what's good for yourself. Don't make yourself out to be the example upon which PLA shows the world that they are not afraid of war.
Main points:
1. PLA is fully confident of winning the conflict, no matter the scale it escalates to
2. Chinese side does not yet feel India have yet realised the determination and readiness for open war, they may yet attempt more provocations at this time
3. PLA will maintain their position of not firing the first shot, but should any PLA unit come under fire they will spare no expanse in wiping out the responsible unit on the Indian side. Should India seek to escalate any fire fights all units involved will be targeted for annihilation.
Hu's warning to New Delhi: know what's good for yourself. Don't make yourself out to be the example upon which PLA shows the world that they are not afraid of war.
Indian thinking can probably explained by this article:
This articles how many Indians believe they can surprise China with a strong strike that will cause PLA to have huge losses which will ultimately allow India to negotiate a solution in its favor. Even if China won tactically, if they take huge losses then it will be India which will be able to gain strategic victory.
My thought is: the current political climate in India is extremely nationalistic and jingoistic. Anyone following Indian media can see a trajectory where only military strength and toughness is glorified. It doesn't matter what losses India takes as long as they appear tough. There is a strong thinking that India have been soft in the past with Pakistan and China and muslims. Now India will not be soft and will go for bold moves under the new Modi govt. This is sort of the selling point of Modi and BJP that they will be tough while Congress have been soft.
I think there is a strong appetite for war in India right now. There is a strong appetite to prove its toughness and boldness. Indians don't care about losing right now as long as they appear tough and glorious. Case in point, the Balakot strike which was a net loss for India in every measure and humiliated India and really boosted Pakistan's prestige. But Indians did not care. They were happy that India did something to Pakistan regardless or the outcome. India is an angry and hungry nation right now. They think China will not go for all out war. And even if it does, India will somehow inflict huge losses on China to force them to back down.
I don't see a similar appetite in China. So, India will keep provoking China. They will always be bolder than China in the border fight. Verbal warnings will simply not work. Chinese exercises will not work since India thinks China does not have any interest in fighting a war with a "tough" and "bold" India.
So, what does China think about this matter? What does Xi Jinping think?
I really don't know. Xi Jinping has been extremely pragmatic and willing to swallow a lot of humiliations if it meant China could maximize its benefits and minimize its losses. Xi Jinping has also been systematic and bold in pursuing Chinese interests as well.
Considering that the new cold war is rising fast, he could decide that fighting a full-scale war will be a net loss for China. So, he could swallow a humiliation and negotiate a solution that is slightly more advantageous for India, thus, giving Modi the public win.
Alternatively, maybe he has had enough of Indian provocations regarding Kashmir and joining the Quad and many other provocatives moves by Modi and has taken a fundamental decision to teach India a lesson. The fact that India is sinking under Covid and economic slowdown is the perfect time to strike India heavily.
Whatever the decision was, it has already been made.
Maybe, there is a third way. Which is just simmering tensions and skirmish for many years. This is what happened between 1962-1980s between India and China. I think there is a strong chance we will see border firing and artillery firing similar to how it is in India-Pakistan border. This type of firing and tension could continue for many years.
This articles how many Indians believe they can surprise China with a strong strike that will cause PLA to have huge losses which will ultimately allow India to negotiate a solution in its favor. Even if China won tactically, if they take huge losses then it will be India which will be able to gain strategic victory.
My thought is: the current political climate in India is extremely nationalistic and jingoistic. Anyone following Indian media can see a trajectory where only military strength and toughness is glorified. It doesn't matter what losses India takes as long as they appear tough. There is a strong thinking that India have been soft in the past with Pakistan and China and muslims. Now India will not be soft and will go for bold moves under the new Modi govt. This is sort of the selling point of Modi and BJP that they will be tough while Congress have been soft.
I think there is a strong appetite for war in India right now. There is a strong appetite to prove its toughness and boldness. Indians don't care about losing right now as long as they appear tough and glorious. Case in point, the Balakot strike which was a net loss for India in every measure and humiliated India and really boosted Pakistan's prestige. But Indians did not care. They were happy that India did something to Pakistan regardless or the outcome. India is an angry and hungry nation right now. They think China will not go for all out war. And even if it does, India will somehow inflict huge losses on China to force them to back down.
I don't see a similar appetite in China. So, India will keep provoking China. They will always be bolder than China in the border fight. Verbal warnings will simply not work. Chinese exercises will not work since India thinks China does not have any interest in fighting a war with a "tough" and "bold" India.
So, what does China think about this matter? What does Xi Jinping think?
I really don't know. Xi Jinping has been extremely pragmatic and willing to swallow a lot of humiliations if it meant China could maximize its benefits and minimize its losses. Xi Jinping has also been systematic and bold in pursuing Chinese interests as well.
Considering that the new cold war is rising fast, he could decide that fighting a full-scale war will be a net loss for China. So, he could swallow a humiliation and negotiate a solution that is slightly more advantageous for India, thus, giving Modi the public win.
Alternatively, maybe he has had enough of Indian provocations regarding Kashmir and joining the Quad and many other provocatives moves by Modi and has taken a fundamental decision to teach India a lesson. The fact that India is sinking under Covid and economic slowdown is the perfect time to strike India heavily.
Whatever the decision was, it has already been made.
Maybe, there is a third way. Which is just simmering tensions and skirmish for many years. This is what happened between 1962-1980s between India and China. I think there is a strong chance we will see border firing and artillery firing similar to how it is in India-Pakistan border. This type of firing and tension could continue for many years.
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I thought it's more like God cannon mountain.
Even though this footage clearly shows PLA evicting Indians and Indians retreating, PLA has to expect Indians being on the losing end will more likely lose their temper and start shooting. You can see plenty of Indians in this footage are armed with rifles. Even though they look like the piece of shit INSAS, sooner or later some moron Jai Hind is going to spray into the PLA crowd, of course they'd all be killed as well but this is certainly going to be a future occurrence if the September clash didn't already involve similar set ups.
These poor men truly are the sacrificial pawns sent out by both states. PLA can't forever babysit every stretch along this border. India can continue intruding and riling things up if PLA send men to counter intrusions. They need to give a deadline to India where after a certain date, intrusions will be dealt with lethal force. Indian military cannot win a war and Indian leaders will not start one. At worst, they will spin the whole story but they're already doing this. CCP is either waiting for something or hesitating in properly dealing with the situation. More deadly clashes to follow for sure if nothing changes.
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Honestly China's posturing is getting very tiring. I think everyone gets it already. And India is squirming. They won't stop causing problems until they're dealt with and they won't directly attack either. It's a stalemate unless the CCP changes the rhythm. China's already won what it set out to do but the Indians are constantly challenging the new status quo as one would expect them to. It's China now that is sitting on its hands. If it's happy with perpetually tolerating this sort of clashing, then whatever, sucks to be deployed there. But if they're interested in settling the matter, they need to pull a false flag or something to justify all out war. Maybe this is the slow setting up. But China watching is truly not for the impatient. CCP moves take decades but feel like centuries. I don't know where these people get their calm from.
I'm far more inclined to believe China has absolutely no desire to fight India even if it is a nuisance. They still think India's future toxicity to China will be tolerable and certainly more so than if they fought the war.
Perhaps the PLA truly did resurrect the founding father generals and that death list a while back was legit
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Looks like the Indian bollywood wannabes were trying to snatch the Chinese flag from the PLA soldiers. Honestly wtf did they expect to happen?
Only a true moron would think they would have a chance in hell of snatching something like that as a trophy. The PLA would fight to the death before allowing that to happen, but if it came to it, it would be the Indian troops who would be doing most of the dying.
I think the PLA soldiers showed considerable restrained in not whipping out the whoopass as soon as the Indians touched the Chinese flag.
This may be relevant here (I'll provide a rough translation, correct me if my wording off by a bit):
Tibet's ministry of transport established a command center that can deal with natural crisis happening on the roads that blocks traffic, the purpose is to ensure that the local government at Tibet can deal with any emergency situation (提高交通应急处置能力和效率 ).
Sounds a lot of ensuring that logistical support can be provided if a war breaks out to me.
Also I have some rumors from Twitter, likewise, take them with a huge freaking grain of salt here:
Front line PLA troops are allowed to engage IA if fired upon, no restrictions this time.
Certain senior officers are flying to Tibet and writing their wills.
By itself, I won't consider such rumors to have any credibility. But with the warning from Global Times and posts by Western Theater command, they rumors feel like they are not too far off....
coolieno99
Junior Member
Only policemen may fire warning shots. Army soldiers don't fire warning shots. That Indian soldier who fired first just missed his target.PLAGF with ancient Ming dynasty weapons..
Warning shots are last resort to avoid armed conflict..
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