Ladakh Flash Point

ougoah · Mar 5, 2021

To the east of this section is Aksai Chin which India wants and claims and China actually controls.

This is one section of the dispute with China actually going into what India possibly controlled (west of blue line). I mean why would India not at least patrol this shaded region if China was only at the blue line for decades?

Now ask why this shaded region suddenly become flared up with China intruding into India the same way India intruded into China in beyond the Kailash ranges? India was pushed back to the foot of Black top and Helmet top which is India land anyway. This proves PLA was able to push back India in a way IA was not able to push back PLA at Pangong.

Supposedly PLA has disengaged in the shaded region as well now BUT many Indian political and retired military figures are claiming that not only has PLA not vacated at least some parts of the shaded region but they are now lost to India. Now why would all these Indian political and ex-military figures say all this stuff if there isn't any issue?

Furthermore, IA has gone behind F3 at Pangong and left Kailash range and long left China's side of Kailash. India certainly isn't in China's side of Aksai Chin.

So what is the net balance?

ougoah · Mar 5, 2021

twineedle said:
When has China ever been ok with India patrolling, occupying, or building anything beyond finger 4? Everytime Indian soldiers went near there there have been clashes between Indian army and PLA, like that viral video in 2017 and the more recent videos of Indian and PLA soldiers staring each other down

I know it hasn't. It's identified India's patrolling as a problem it wished to stop and to do that, it used PLA to simply occupy that entire Pangong dispute stretch and force India to agree not to step beyond F3.

ougoah · Mar 5, 2021

@twineedle.

Now the situation at Pangong and the history of the dispute is well documented and reported on. It's no longer that interesting or a front of development.

Kailash ranges are vacated by IA and IA never stayed long on China's side. Chinese leadership leaks suggest PLA employed non-lethal microwave and sonic weapons to push huge numbers of IA out of Reqin and other parts of China that IA intruded into, possibly in a mirror move to POSSIBLE PLA intrusion beyond the blue line.

I say possible PLA intrusion beyond blue line because India itself is the one saying this. At least the part that isn't the autistic part... you know the "We won Balakot!" "Taiwan shot down a Su-35!" "We shot down an F-16!" crowd.

This part is the only remaining interesting sub-issue and a development where some Indian political and ex-military figures are very loudly claiming that not only has China still not vacated certain parts of the shaded region, it is part of PLA strategy to capture it for Depsang plains tactical benefits. This I think is weak and of course we both agree this may or may not be the case.

I think this is weak because PLA doesn't need men on the ground to perform war and control Depsang plains. This isn't how warfare works.

twineedle · Mar 5, 2021

Don't have too many issues with what was stated above, but the micorwave weapon story has no basis. And India never vacated rechin la until the disengagement deal, the Army COAS visited the very heights occupied

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1341639821433815041

This was released well over a month after those microwave weapon stories were released. In fact rezang la and rechin la were where India conducted the "preemptive actions." The positions it took opposite helmet, black top, bump and on Mukhpari and Gurung were mirror deployments in response to Chinese deployments to the former two peaks.

ougoah · Mar 5, 2021

twineedle said:
Don't have too many issues with what was stated above, but the micorwave weapon story has no basis. And India never vacated rechin la until the disengagement deal, the Army COAS visited the very heights occupied

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1341639821433815041

This was released well over a month after those microwave weapon stories were released. In fact rezang la and rechin la were where India conducted the "preemptive actions." The positions it took opposite helmet, black top, bump and on Mukhpari and Gurung were mirror deployments in response to Chinese deployments to the former two peaks.

The microwave/sonic weapons deployment story isn't backed up indeed. But we know PLA has such weapons for years and we know that China made a huge fuss about India intruding into China proper. Then the noise stopped and the leaks said the Indians were repelled from China's side pretty effectively. During that week, there was a lot of chatter about yet another violent confrontation with even shots fired. Snipers from PLA taking aim at IA apparently. No way to know anything for sure EXCEPT that China stopped loudly reporting on it and the general understanding (not sure if this was officially declared by China) was that Indian troops vacated Chinese side.

Now about your tweet and the claims these guys only recently vacated Rechin La and Rezang La. Well tell me exactly where this is. This is very much possibly on India's side from the get go. India holds parts of it and it's also called Rechin La Rezang La. Is there a coordinate and proof of Indian troops only recently vacating Chinese land to the south of Pangong Lake? I'm not familiar with any and my understanding was that Indian intrusions into China proper was pretty quickly repelled by PLA and the most forward position held by IA after that was at the foot of Black Top and Helmet Top hills with PLA camping on their peaks - exactly as the mutually agreed border is like.

Videos from India show that PLA had the Back top andd Hlemet top peaks with IA camping at the foot of those hills. IA is on India's side while PLA is on China's side. No issue. The border recognised by both run through the peaks of these hills. If anything they should be sharing the peak but PLA held it.

ougoah · Mar 5, 2021

twineedle said:
The mouth of the Galwan is where the Galwan flows into the Shyok. That is definitely west of the dotted line. In addition, before india's actions on August 29th,

This is about 5km behind China's control point and recognised Indian border counting from the nearest north east dispute line and more than 5km behind Finger 1 at Pangong lake.

This isn't the place Chinese authorities are mentioning. It's well beyond even China's craziest furthest troll claim lines.

By estruary they could mean the bend or something else much closer to the dotted Chinese claim line (in fact 2km or so further).

ougoah · Mar 5, 2021

What I'm interested in mostly that shaded region with both shaded ones being the dispute sections at Ladakh.

Blue line shows PLA and China controlled and patrolled points before clash. Beyond blue line was India. China was annoyed at India increasingly conducting patrols and building up (build up well within India's side I know this concern from China is strange but it is what it is). China wanted India to stop patrols in the shaded region, what India claims (India claims more because it claims Aksai Chin). China annoyed at India's more frequent patrols was justified because India agreed to keep these disputes passive and calm with multiple agreements with China. Could explain why if CCP is indeed capturing parts of Depsang. They do want to make it more known to India that destabilising the situation will be met with responses. China prefers same old. It has everything to gain and nothing to lose from doing the same old. India has nothing to lose and everything to gain they thought by destabilising. China is moving and progressing faster than India. From that perspective, Chinese leaders want all to stay the same and keep their low profile. They don't like needless upsetting of status quo that is clearly working for China and they don't clash as easily as other powers are trigger happy to. They also don't like attention.

So China send PLA to occupy some if not most of the shaded regions. This is well documented to be the case. Clashes happened, India unable to move PLA. Agreements settled. Now do the maths on which side those agreements would favour and consider that this is all two steps forward for China even with a one step back disengagement, the concessions from India for PLA to disengage must certainly be worth something even if less than obvious ones. And now add to that, India used to patrol (as far as I've gathered) shaded region which are India's, claim at least some of. Now India is behind those shaded region at Pangong lake and will not have access to any of it if it follows agreements for disengagement.

twineedle · Mar 5, 2021

The disengagement deal at Galwan was a 2 km buffer zone along with a temporary patrolling ban. dont really know what the second image is supposed to be

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1280048908878544896

And are you saying Indian soldiers patrolled the area between the blue line and dotted line? That is pretty far from the lac. I have not seen any sources suggesting that, not even anti-modi politicians/analysts have claimed India patrolled beyond the lac in those regions.

ougoah said:
What I'm interested in mostly that shaded region with both shaded ones being the dispute sections at Ladakh.

Blue line shows PLA and China controlled and patrolled points before clash. Beyond blue line was India. China was annoyed at India increasingly conducting patrols and building up (build up well within India's side I know this concern from China is strange but it is what it is). China wanted India to stop patrols in the shaded region, what India claims (India claims more because it claims Aksai Chin). China annoyed at India's more frequent patrols was justified because India agreed to keep these disputes passive and calm with multiple agreements with China. Could explain why if CCP is indeed capturing parts of Depsang. They do want to make it more known to India that destabilising the situation will be met with responses. China prefers same old. It has everything to gain and nothing to lose from doing the same old. India has nothing to lose and everything to gain they thought by destabilising. China is moving and progressing faster than India. From that perspective, Chinese leaders want all to stay the same and keep their low profile. They don't like needless upsetting of status quo that is clearly working for China and they don't clash as easily as other powers are trigger happy to. They also don't like attention.

So China send PLA to occupy some if not most of the shaded regions. This is well documented to be the case. Clashes happened, India unable to move PLA. Agreements settled. Now do the maths on which side those agreements would favour and consider that this is all two steps forward for China even with a one step back disengagement, the concessions from India for PLA to disengage must certainly be worth something even if less than obvious ones. And now add to that, India used to patrol (as far as I've gathered) shaded region which are India's, claim at least some of. Now India is behind those shaded region at Pangong lake and will not have access to any of it if it follows agreements for disengagement.

View attachment 69534

ougoah · Mar 5, 2021

twineedle said:
And are you saying Indian soldiers patrolled the area between the blue line and dotted line? That is pretty far from the lac. I have not seen any sources suggesting that, not even anti-modi politicians/analysts have claimed India patrolled beyond the lac in those regions.

LAC is pretty dynamic. It stretches between F4 and F8. Without specifying exact points, it's impossible to know what one is referring to.

I am saying Indian soldiers patrolled beyond the left line of the dispute (the one that runs through F4) and this is evidenced by plenty of Indian figures saying this. After all, India claims to the blue line at Pangong Lake (F8). So it makes sense for India to conduct patrols (rare but still done) to F8 and it makes sense for China to have done what it did as well. India's recently repositioned four star general VK Singh admits this.

He says

"India has transgressed more times than China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), but the government does not announce it"

"China had transgressed many times over the years with its own perception of the LAC. “Similarly, none of you come to know how many times we have transgressed as per our perception. Chinese media does not cover it,” Gen. (retd) Singh said. "

"“Let me assure you, if China has transgressed 10 times, we must have done it at least 50 times,” he added."

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These confrontations are one element for the motivation on China's part to capture F4 to F8 for an entire year, forcing India to agree to certain, still not exactly transparent terms, for PLA disengagement within land that India claims.

When you say that's pretty far from the LAC what do you mean? It is the LAC. LAC changes depending on who you talk to, when you are doing this talking, and what their motivations and agendas are. But it is universally agreed F4 to F8 is basically the LAC with no real fine line drawing it out. China has been wanting to draw a line for 70 years but India insists it wants everything up to F8.

Xizor · Mar 6, 2021

twineedle said:
As I said, we will have to agree to disagree about the extent of Indian patrolls beyond finger 4. But has India built infrastructure beyond finger 4? We all know it hasn't. And the destruction of Chinese permanent infrastructure and bases in the region will also mean no threats to Dhan Singh Thapa base. SO that works both way.

The deal you mentioned where finger 4 would be a de facto border. Did that have any limits on types of infrastructure? Patrolling is simply a tactical op that isn't always strategially viable. Infrastructure is the immportant thing here, and India's goal was always to prevent China from building between finger 4 through eight.

But thank you for agreeing that neither side lost territory they previously controlled, and both lost access to areas they claim. That definitely runs counter some claims made here. I also think that makes it hard to claim a big Chinese victory, but we will ahve to agree to disagree on that.

Bold 1: India has patrolled till Finger 8.why does even "fingers" exist?

Bold 2: Which "permanent" Chinese infrastructure and base has been destroyed?

Bold 3: Patrolling is NOT tactical operation. Maybe in Bollywood?

Bold 4: Runs counter to the claims made by you. You were insisting on Indian patrols.

Cope.Harder.

Refer previous posts.

Ladakh Flash Point

ougoah

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ougoah

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ougoah

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twineedle

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ougoah

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ougoah

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ougoah

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twineedle

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ougoah

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Xizor

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