Ladakh Flash Point

ougoah said:

The list of events that could have precipitated this confrontation is pretty limited. For both sides. China and India have indeed been delaying the resolution of not only this dispute but all three. The difference is China has been offering a compromise from the beginning. India in Nehru's "wisdom" decided they were markedly superior to China back in the 1960s and up to end of 2020, India continued to ignore settling this dispute with the compromise deal. This may have finally changed with the recent agreement. It remains to be seen how both sides will behave following this but I would imagine it would depend on their respective situations. I would not be at all surprised that India sees their keeping of their claim as a formality as a means to re-engage if and when they find the economic and military power to do so, relative to China's of course.

For example I wouldn't be surprised if India re-engaged if China is bogged down in a Taiwan conflict. But the PLA probably understands this as well and have preparations in case.



No doubt India will inflame and re-engage if they have the means to or if they think they've found China in a weak position. And honestly on that topic we cannot blame them as they see this stretch as much a part of their land as Chinese do, if not even more. Honestly this stretch is so far from China proper and not that significant for Chinese interests, while it could strategically be important for India. It's within artillery range of New Delhi.

Click to expand...

Not a huge fan of Nehru, but to be fair, I do think India got better deal on the lac this year than it would had he agreed to Zhou Enlai's initial proposal. It is unfortunate that there were casualties on both sides though.

ougoah said:

Not if we consider that India has far greater forces nearby and better means of mobilising them. Chinese road expanded only last year during this conflict. And was also done in part as response to undeniable Indian build up from 2018 to 2020.

From considering the 1959 deal, it would seem India has given up its claims with this buffer establishment if it also means PLA removes presence on paper. It makes sense for China to demand India concede to some variant of the 1959/1993 agreements since it freaking captured the land anyway and proven it can take it by force but with the cost of constant harassment from IA and intrusions.

The disengagement resembled the 1959/1992/3 deal far more than it resembles the Indian offer of everything up to F8.

Click to expand...

i don't think any Indian millitary or gov. leaders seriously thought India could get finger 8. Indian patrols past finger 4 were far from frequent. Personally I think the Indian government calculation is agreeing to a buffer zone is worth it, since no Chinese camps on finger 4 would mean no threats to any of India's recent infrastructure in the region, including dsdbo. And considering India never had any permanent positions past finger 4, a simple cost/benefits analysis would clearly point towards pushing for status quo ante on the north bank. Of course India will still claim up to finger 8, but that is mostly symbolic.

I do believe that would be the Indian perspective on the disengagement deal.

ougoah said:

It pays to remind ourselves this is a group of morons who insist on believing their Mig-21 miraculously shot down an F-16 with a non-existent missile on a non-existent pylon, all while it was being shot at. Not even semi-active missiles and the downed Mi-21 could still guide that non-existent Jai Hind magic missile onto an F-16 through the pure cow piss magic focus of Abhi's laser like sight. Human mounted sight missile guidance invented in India first heard.

Click to expand...

FWIW, I do not believe the f 16 shot down claim

Nobonita Barua said:

Story 1 : We were outnumbered, unarmed, ambushed, but gave it back (Then comes the video)

Story 2 : Brave jawans stopped Chinese incursion making supreme sacrifice , wont give an inch

Story 3 : China is vacating occupied land, advantage india (Then what did brave jawans do?)

Click to expand...

Restore the status quo ante as of 2019.

lp1g said:

On satellite maps you will see the road built by chinese side upto F4 so it's easy for Chinese side to take control of area before Indian even start approaching the F4.

Earlier China was just allowing Indian side to patrol on mercy now China is not allowed to enter the same area that's a big change.

Click to expand...

That is why while I do think the disengagment deal benefited both sides, India got the best deal it could have, especially since China had more to lose in Pangong, considering how far they advanced adn all the infra they built. The only way India can really enforce its claims is by denial of territory, whereas this standoff shows China does have the capability to enforce its claims via occupation.

Not to mention the fact that the evidence available suggests that India never actually patrolled up to finger eight, though I guess that is debatable.

twineedle said:

Restore the status quo ante as of 2019.

Click to expand...

It is. Indians now ran away from both galwan & finger. Not coming back. China's status quo ante has been established

Status quo ante Minus The Indians.

twineedle said:

That is why while I do think the disengagment deal benefited both sides, India got the best deal it could have

Click to expand...

Yes. India still have 2 fingers left. So they did face saving after their azz whopped in galwan

twineedle said:

I do think you have to consider though, that while patrolling is still debatable, India has never been able to build any infrastructure or encampments east of Dhan Singh Thapa.

Click to expand...

Yea. How amazing. India never did anything, but claims itself to be "vishwaguru". You know right?

twineedle said:

That is why while I do think the disengagment deal benefited both sides, India got the best deal it could have, especially since China had more to lose in Pangong, considering how far they advanced adn all the infra they built. The only way India can really enforce its claims is by denial of territory, whereas this standoff shows China does have the capability to enforce its claims via occupation.

Not to mention the fact that the evidence available suggests that India never actually patrolled up to finger eight, though I guess that is debatable.

Click to expand...

The PLA advanced to finger 4 to secure this deal. I don't think China really expected to get anything beyond finger 8 to ignore that this region is more than an entire India's length away from China's dense populous and major cities and economic/political centres. This area is within rocket artillery range of New Delhi.

The Chinese always wanted a deal somewhere beyond finger 8 and claiming to finger 3 was and is as arbitrary as India's claiming to finger 8. Neither side ever used or settled on this stretch. In fact China much less than India if anything.

This current deal could only have happened with PLA taking up a forward position. Without it, India would never have released their claims up to finger 8 while China has since 1950s been hoping to compromise and create a border between F3 and F8. It's evident from China's offers since 1950s that China never really truly expected anything close to Finger 3. Otherwise it wouldn't have kept offering a settlement in between. India never relinquished until now. It only did because PLA simply took the disputed zone and proved to the Indian military and leadership that India is truly unable to realistically challenge this. Enforcing a buffer only helps ensure there are no more confrontations possible for the time being.

India got the best deal it could under China's upper hand of holding those forward positions for over a year and proving to the Indian leadership it was unable to challenge it. These are useful things to note for negotiations.

Stop writing many messages right after another instead of editing one and making it longer!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Can't read the thread because of it.

-----------------------------------

Encourage your fellow Chinese to cross the great firewall and upvote this video.

twineedle said:

Not a huge fan of Nehru, but to be fair, I do think India got better deal on the lac this year than it would had he agreed to Zhou Enlai's initial proposal. It is unfortunate that there were casualties on both sides though.

i don't think any Indian millitary or gov. leaders seriously thought India could get finger 8. Indian patrols past finger 4 were far from frequent. Personally I think the Indian government calculation is agreeing to a buffer zone is worth it, since no Chinese camps on finger 4 would mean no threats to any of India's recent infrastructure in the region, including dsdbo. And considering India never had any permanent positions past finger 4, a simple cost/benefits analysis would clearly point towards pushing for status quo ante on the north bank. Of course India will still claim up to finger 8, but that is mostly symbolic.

I do believe that would be the Indian perspective on the disengagement deal.

Click to expand...

Zhou Enlai wanted to perform swaps. There is no India getting a better deal only India getting the best deal it can bargain for at the moment. How could it when the PLA held those positions and proved to Modi it could maintain it if it wanted to waste resources in doing so.

Far from frequent is still patrolling. Both sides performed these patrols on occasion to demonstrate their claims. The Chinese calculation is to create a buffer zone. They could have sat there while dealing with annoying IA intrusions in other parts or they could force India to agree to what far closely resembles China's compromise offer from the last century.

When talking about who got the better deal it needs to be understood and noted that india never wavered from demanding everything to finger 8 while China only claimed to finger 3 as a means to make its real offer more palatable. China's finger 3 claim is there simply to make the Chinese 1959 offer seem like a worthy compromise which is the only deal China really went after. Contrast with India's insistence of taking up to finger 8. This new agreement is almost identical to China's offer but with the added buffer which is effectively nothing since the 1959 offer basically means India behind finger 4. It is now behind finger 3. Meanwhile no PLA up to finger 4 is to China no different than no PLA to finger 8. None of it truly mattered EXCEPT for getting IA behind finger 4 and India recognising and observing the agreement.