I mean right now Indians say they can't even buy stuff from alibaba.
but moving forward, foreign investors should be wary of india flip flop habits
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Ladakh Flash Point
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but moving forward, foreign investors should be wary of india flip flop habits
India needs China more than China needs them. What should happen is China cutting off supply of critical items (Pharma API, electrical machinery etc) . Let India beg for resumption of trade ties.
The negotiation hasn't started yet. The disengagement where Chinese side voluntarily retreat greater distance than the Indian side's retreat is just a typical Chinese show of good will so that the negotiation can be done in good faith. Lasting contracts can't take place if Indians feel taken advantage of. In this sense the move is a practical one.
There's no need to see this as if somehow the Americans are involved; America has nothing to do with China-India border issues. But I guess it's typical that the world should revolve around America. Is China is somehow worried about a second front? Chinese strategic fronts in the east are ocean facing and thus will be naval and air confrontations; the army will have to sit quietly and watch with nothing to do. So this is not an issue.
That is exactly what’s wrong with this approach. Last time China displayed similar good will was in June 2020, and we all know how that turned out. Any gesture of goodwill is simply interpreted as weakness by the Indian side.
For those who are trying to make a connection between this and Taiwan, I feel that this is unwarranted. The Chinese now have the ability to take Taiwan by force if needed. However, now is not the time for them to do it for the following reasons,
1. This would sour the BIT and RCEP deals, which is the last thing the Chinese wanted.
2. This would add to the sanctions from not only the U.S. but the West in general. In one decade or two, the sanctions would lose much of its meaning.
3. Taiwan is also used as a leverage against the U.S. For example, if the U.S. were to entertain the idea of invading Iran, the Chinese can fain a Taiwan invasion which would either delay or neutralize that threat for Iran.
4. TSMC is kicking the ass of Intel and Samsung. An invasion of Taiwan now would hinder that effort. In ten years time, when all the capacities for the advanced chips belongs to TSMC and node advancement stops due to limits of physics, an invasion by the Chinese would put the West in a quandary. Adding new fabs at home would mean money losing, especially if both Intel and Samsung falls behind and stop pursuing the most advanced nodes due to economic reasons, there would not even be expertise to do this at any price.
Now is not the time for the Chinese to do a Taiwan invasion. Some future date, there might be a trade with the Biden administration if Biden is smart to use the leverage while he still has it.
1. This would sour the BIT and RCEP deals, which is the last thing the Chinese wanted.
2. This would add to the sanctions from not only the U.S. but the West in general. In one decade or two, the sanctions would lose much of its meaning.
3. Taiwan is also used as a leverage against the U.S. For example, if the U.S. were to entertain the idea of invading Iran, the Chinese can fain a Taiwan invasion which would either delay or neutralize that threat for Iran.
4. TSMC is kicking the ass of Intel and Samsung. An invasion of Taiwan now would hinder that effort. In ten years time, when all the capacities for the advanced chips belongs to TSMC and node advancement stops due to limits of physics, an invasion by the Chinese would put the West in a quandary. Adding new fabs at home would mean money losing, especially if both Intel and Samsung falls behind and stop pursuing the most advanced nodes due to economic reasons, there would not even be expertise to do this at any price.
Now is not the time for the Chinese to do a Taiwan invasion. Some future date, there might be a trade with the Biden administration if Biden is smart to use the leverage while he still has it.
I'd like to think they won't try anything new now that Pompeo is gone.
I don't think Biden administration have any high priority appetite/plans for this region.
The situation has changed. Last I recall, there's no talk of a border negotiation in June, but was just a move to de-escalate tension. Some on the forum have pointed out the negotiation might be for India to accept 1959 LAC. If this is accurate then, the last something like this happened was 1962.
This is probably the most detailed assessment and analysis of the disengagement at Ladahk so far. It's also the most convincing to me.
All the analysis/concerns/puzzlement about China maneuvering and making moves for the better part of last year with India in deep troubles across the board and over-matched in every dimension and then suddenly giving away all the leverage and pressure without any gain do not make any sense or pass the smell test. And if they don't, they're likely not true.
I think both sides settling on the 1959 LAC with some minor adjustments and clarifications, and some understanding to reach a potential longer-term solution based on 1959 LAC makes most sense now.
From H.S. Panrag on Pangong Tso:
It's possible that China has made the concession here to save India's face and gives them something to sell to the domestic crowd. It's no wonder then the Indian General Singh touted this when speaking publicly about the disengagement agreement.
Regarding the so-called marco plan, H.S. Panrag has this to say:
Read the report carefully. It has a lot of details, as well as some of the thinking behind this supposed agreement from the India side. We'll have to wait for more details to emerge, but this so far makes most sense to me than any other interpretations out there.
I’m not so sure that your optimism is well founded. Indian local commanders have demonstrated a lot of “initiative” in the past.
This not the first time that the Russian media fell for Indian fake news. Remember the story of the fake Pakistani F-16 shootdown in 2019? The Russian media picked up this news with enthusiasm. If I was not mistaken, it was discussed on Russia 24 with Russian military analysts. They were proud that their venerable Mig 21 Bison could shootdown an F-16. Coming up with so many reasons why that must be true. Then Pakistan revealed to the world the Mig 21 wreckage, with all its R73 missiles still attached to their pylons, and the drop tanks still attached. And so that story quickly lost traction in the Russian media.
Recently. The Russian media also fell for the Indian Kool-Aid with their: T-90 > Type-15, Mig-29 > J-10, Su-30MKI > J-11, and so on. It does not surprise me that TASS is picking up yet another Indian BS story. After all, when TASS is looking for sources, only the Indian side is more than willing to fill in the details. While the Chinese side wanna keep things hush-hush. So, it only ran with the Indian narrative. This is where China could learn a lot from Pakistan on how to handle Indian fake news. Whenever India shouts out fake news. Shout out the truth with equal volume. Address the whole fake news crap ASAP. If that fails, at least use that truth to throw India's narrative into doubt. China playing hush-hush just plays perfectly into the Indian narrative that it had 'won' at Galwan.
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