Ladakh Flash Point

The GT is cautiously optimistic of the withdrawal.

Calling the move a breakthrough, analysts noted that the location of the disengagement had been a focus and a core issue of the months-long border faceoff.

The situation in the northern bank of the Pangong Tso had long been in deadlock, and as India attempted to force China to make compromise, it made provocations on the southern bank in August 2020, Qian said, noting that the reason some of the recent negotiations failed to make significant progress is the differences at this location which has been a core issue.

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I don't think this is a 'breakthrough' like what the article is describing. It's actually more like kicking the can down the road. China had just given India a breather in its ongoing Cold War with China. India is only just starting to feel the hurt. Why stop now? Its not like India is gonna stop messing with China after this.

Now both sides should monitor each other over the disengagement and make sure they all abide by the agreement, Qian said.

While it remains difficult to cancel the tense standoff and return to peace and stability once and for all, the future looks promising, Qian said.

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Prepare to watch the accusations fly. Particularly from the noisy side. We are gonna hear accusations of China not honoring agreements, China broke the rules, China lies, etc. Whether it's false. Or whether because of China reacting to yet another Indian provocation at the border.

The future was already promising before this withdrawal agreement. Now China would have to react passively to any Indian monkey business. China will always get the blame anyway. No matter if its acting passive or aggressive.

I do hope that China is prepared if this withdrawal agreement breaks down again.

There’s very little discussion about the disengagement on Chinese social media, even at sites where the standoff has been a reasonably popular topic (Zhihu, for example). Censors obviously don’t want people to pay much attention. I think it’s safe to conclude China has made substantial compromises.

China should just officially report 1 million PLA soldiers died and see how Indian media runs with it

OppositeDay said:

There’s very little discussion about the disengagement on Chinese social media, even at sites where the standoff has been a reasonably popular topic (Zhihu, for example). Censors obviously don’t want people to pay much attention. I think it’s safe to conclude China has made substantial compromises.

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It's CNY, people have things to do.

I see plenty of discussion:

Temstar said:

It's CNY, people have things to do.

I see plenty of discussion:

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CJDBY is a military discussion board, not a general social media site. The disengagement isn’t even a topic on Zhihu. Censors must have given directives.

The Chinese just want to establish some distance from the Indians as they don’t want to catch Covid from them.

On a more serious note, the devil will be in the details. If both sides pull back from current positions and established a similar sized no-patrol buffer zone from the current lines, then that’s a net win for China as it would have effectively regained all its claimed terror and established a buffer zone in Indian territory.

Chinese media silence on the matter is hardly unusual in such circumstances. Unlike with India and western ‘democracies’ the media tail in China does not try to wag the government in China by pumping out opinion pieces designed to try to shape public perception and force the government to adapt policies the media owners want; nor will then engage in baseless speculation or rumour mongering.

Negotiations are probably at a delicate stage, so even if Chinese media have a good idea of what Chinese negotiators wants to achieve, it would be both stupid and irresponsible for them to blab about it publicly and potentially tip the hand of Chinese negotiators.

OppositeDay said:

CJDBY is a military discussion board, not a general social media site. The disengagement isn’t even a topic on Zhihu. Censors must have given directives.

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Certainly. There is that possibility. But does that result reflect what's the situation has been or has evolved into for both parties.

What strengths did India enjoy over China that'd force China to pull back? Contrary to the Indian discourse

1. China didn't suffer as much troop loss as India. I put the number on the bloodshed as (2or5 vs 20). China moreover captured 40 soldiers and let them go. If PLA did indeed lose more it'd have never released these soldiers without harm.

2. PLA isn't China. PLA is PLA. The decision to confront the IA with melee tools is a PLA decision. People often confuse CCP with PLA. I tend to see them as distinct bodies with distinct brains. Atleast their actions say that. A PLA subservient to diplomacy won't take drastic actions of using melee weapons, even if it'd suffered losses first from IA.

3. China confronted India during the waxing phase of Trump Administration, when US and India were relatively on stronger positions with no coronavirus and good GDP growths. The situation is almost opposite now.

4. Winter is passing. Now there is time for ample growth of deployment to the borders.

5. There is an ongoing protest in India with international image being affected. As a democracy, bad PR is bad. There is also the fact that Indian economy is in dire straits. Only rosy pictures being painted are by IMF which consistently has projected India's numbers to be few points higher. The reality is that India isn't seeing stellar recovery.

Under all these circumstances, the best solution for China would be to de escalate, sure, but on terms that is better palatable for China rather than India. Hence why I am hesitant to call this a draw or worse.

The things I will be looking out for

1. What does deescalation mean for both parties? Is it purely mechanical or troop or both.

2. Where are the agreed patrol limits?

3. What's the situation in North and South Pangong Tso. Has India vacated the two empty hills it "captured" in the south

4. What's the situation in Depsang?
5. What's the situation in South Tibet?

The official Chinese wording of 'disengagement' is identical to that at Doklam. Rest assured, China did not cede anything to India, and if it did, there was something gotten in return (Depsang). Pangong lake is much more sensitive and in the media limelight. You have to throw a bone to keep the dog happy.