Ladakh Flash Point

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EblisTx

Junior Member
The only thing India is fiercely competitive in is online trolling/gaslighting/catfishing and maybe internet/telephone fraud, although they couldn’t hold a candle to the sophistication of Taiwanese in the latter.

SEA light manufacturing is actually pretty competitive even against China, especially in recent years as Chinese living standards and wages rose and they moved up the value chain.

India will have as much success competing against SEA in manufacturing today as it did against China in the late 80s and 90s.

Beyond knock-off generic drugs, it’s actually hard to think of anything India manufactures that anyone else actually would want.
By fierce competition, I mean Indian manufacturing will be badly beaten. Lacking infrastructure, isolation for the Supply chain, corruption, and bureaucracy, it is like everything is against made in India.
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
The problems with India is structural. When the Communists took over China, they nationalized all the land and factories. While this set them off to the class warfare that ensued, it did allow them to shake off the elite special interest groups that would have exerted a lot of influence on the government. This also enable them later, during Deng's time, to do infrastructure building on a grand scale without the concern from private owners of land that would block the progress. This was possible because their rise to power was through violent means. As Mao used to say, power come from the barrel of the the gun. India's rise was through non-violent means. That means the elites before independence were still in power. What is more, the government was so weak that even governmental agencies like the school teachers and DRDO have grown to be strong entities of their own right without any means by the government to curb their power. During Deng's time, the Chinese side also have vested interests that would not yield for the greater good of the country. What the government did was to use access of WTO as an instrument to check these internal powers. In theory, RCEP could also be used in this manner, but whether they can pull it off depends on the government. I am not optimistic. But the flip side is that there would be a lot of difficulties for India if it is outside this group RCEP. Over time, the RCEP countries will grow tighter together and more powerful as a block. Now India is from the outside looking in.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
In democratic countries, politicians often do things that seem irrational when in fact they are constrained by politics. This does not mean they are unaware of the dangers and the boundaries. Maybe you are right and they might push past the boundaries. If China wanted war, they could have used any number of incursions as an excuse to launch war. They have not. Hope cooler heads prevail.
As to internal sabotage, the Chinese can give much better than it takes. I won't worry about that. So far, what came out of India is just noise.
If India crosses Chinese red lines, it becomes rather academic if their leaders done so knowingly and willingly or not.

The core issue is less about democracy vs meritocracy and more about India playing with fire through its own domestic fake news industry.

No government can go fundamentally against the will of its people on matters the people care enough about, and India is fast making China just such an issue for its own citizens; while at the same time filling their minds with sheer fantasy about the relative real power balance between India and China.

Today, your average Indian on the street most likely believe that China is both pure evil personified while also being a total pushover for the Indian military. That makes war both an easy and appealing option for them to demand. If China wanted a war with India, it would not take much active trolling and provoking to trigger the current farm protest levels of unrest and passion from Indians demanding war.

While China has gone out of its way to avoid escalation with India in the past and presently, it would be foolish to bank on such Chinese patience lasting indefinitely into the future. Especially since the effect of Indian aggression is cumulative and isn’t conveniently reset with every term limit. As such beyond a major red line being crossed like Indian state sponsored terrorism in China, there is the additional risk of a camel’s back scenario where a relatively minor event proves to be China’s last straw given all the BS India has pulled in the past.

My main point is that if India continues on its current path, I feel that a major war with China is only a question of when rather than if.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Well border troop grow vegetable in container via Beijing walker
Border troops of PLA Tibet Military Command established a “plant factory”

Border troops of PLA Tibet Military Command established a “plant factory” at an altitude of over 4,900m to ensure vegetable supplies in winter. Powered by solar energy and equipped with micro-pressure oxygen chambers, the factory has cultivated fresh vegetables like lettuce.
 

timepass

Brigadier
If India crosses Chinese red lines, it becomes rather academic if their leaders done so knowingly and willingly or not.

The core issue is less about democracy vs meritocracy and more about India playing with fire through its own domestic fake news industry.

No government can go fundamentally against the will of its people on matters the people care enough about, and India is fast making China just such an issue for its own citizens; while at the same time filling their minds with sheer fantasy about the relative real power balance between India and China.

Today, your average Indian on the street most likely believe that China is both pure evil personified while also being a total pushover for the Indian military. That makes war both an easy and appealing option for them to demand. If China wanted a war with India, it would not take much active trolling and provoking to trigger the current farm protest levels of unrest and passion from Indians demanding war.

While China has gone out of its way to avoid escalation with India in the past and presently, it would be foolish to bank on such Chinese patience lasting indefinitely into the future. Especially since the effect of Indian aggression is cumulative and isn’t conveniently reset with every term limit. As such beyond a major red line being crossed like Indian state sponsored terrorism in China, there is the additional risk of a camel’s back scenario where a relatively minor event proves to be China’s last straw given all the BS India has pulled in the past.

My main point is that if India continues on its current path, I feel that a major war with China is only a question of when rather than if.

That's actually BJP - RSS doctrine since they are in power in last 15 years or so and it worked for them earlier they used Pakistan as a tool and now they are trying same for China to remain in power ....
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
If India crosses Chinese red lines, it becomes rather academic if their leaders done so knowingly and willingly or not.

The core issue is less about democracy vs meritocracy and more about India playing with fire through its own domestic fake news industry.

No government can go fundamentally against the will of its people on matters the people care enough about, and India is fast making China just such an issue for its own citizens; while at the same time filling their minds with sheer fantasy about the relative real power balance between India and China.

Today, your average Indian on the street most likely believe that China is both pure evil personified while also being a total pushover for the Indian military. That makes war both an easy and appealing option for them to demand. If China wanted a war with India, it would not take much active trolling and provoking to trigger the current farm protest levels of unrest and passion from Indians demanding war.

While China has gone out of its way to avoid escalation with India in the past and presently, it would be foolish to bank on such Chinese patience lasting indefinitely into the future. Especially since the effect of Indian aggression is cumulative and isn’t conveniently reset with every term limit. As such beyond a major red line being crossed like Indian state sponsored terrorism in China, there is the additional risk of a camel’s back scenario where a relatively minor event proves to be China’s last straw given all the BS India has pulled in the past.

My main point is that if India continues on its current path, I feel that a major war with China is only a question of when rather than if.
If the public of India believe that PLA is a pushover, they must believe the Pakistan Arm forces to be even more of a pushover. While they took advantage of Pakistan when it was weak and the West did not intervene, you can observe their behavior towards Pakistan in the last decade or two. There were a lot of cannons and guns fired, but it was basically LARP for the internal news consumption. The timing was also mainly political. If you were really fighting your enemy, you would choose your time when the enemy is weak and you are strong, not when you have internal political turmoil. They were very careful not to trigger an actual war. A while back, when a number of government officials were killed by terrorists from Pakistan, or when there was a group of gunmen from Pak lighting it up on the streets, the Indians did not dare risk a war. They just say things like "you are testing the patience of India" and things went back to business as usual. If they behave that way towards Pakistan, I believe they will not dare really provoke China, but time will tell if your concern will actually come to pass.
 

MwRYum

Major
Once Americans get some first-hand experience of what the Jai Hinds are really like, they'll come to China hat in hand and say, "Can we do that 'new type of great power relations' thing you were talking about?"
Forget it, they've their own homegrown version and they still couldn't sort it out.

Besides, the Biden Administration has decided to continue the Trump Administration approach against China. So, forget about detente.
 
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