Yes, the Indian government behaved foolishly, but the Chinese government must try to balance its interests and not push India to the arms of the West. The goal should not be to publicly humiliate them or to take out their force so Pakistan will get back Kashmir. That would push them into the West camp. The goal is to ensure that the Indian military and politicians know privately that their acts will be futile and retreat and de-escalate on their own. India can either take the humiliation of retreating now or be dragged into the quaqmire of a never ending resource drain. It seams the politicians are now choosing the latter now. At some point, the political situation may change and allow them to back down.
Ladakh Flash Point
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plawolf
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Yes, that’s the goal China is currently pursuing. My point is based on the caveat that India continues to not take the hint and/or does something monumentally stupid enough to push China to open conflict.
If there is another war between India and China, it is pretty much a given that India will dive headfirst into the embrace of the west to oppose China, in which case it would be better for China to hit them so hard that they loose all appetite for further conflict, and/or remove their capacity to join in with the West to start with.
China never goes to war lightly, but once it goes, it goes all in.
With the massive and ongoing farm protests in India, there is elevated risk that Modi would once again turn to his go-to option of using his military against foreign powers as a means of scoring political points domestically and diverting the attention of the masses from his own incompetence.
Fukin 5 eyes policy that's why
Yes, after the last few months, the Indian government and military is not stupid enough to really take on the PLA. As they have done with Pakistan, their military action had been about generating some news for internal consumption. I am pretty sure during the so call military talks that yielded nothing, the PLA spelled out in no uncertain terms where the red lines are. The whole thing is a Bollywood dance.
China's grand India strategy at work. Think about it: with a falling economy about one sixth of that of China, under the duress of pandemic and internal unrest, India is spending about half of China's defense spending. What's worse/better, the majority of the spending is on salary and personnel, and the increased spending is mostly on foreign armament acquisition. These is no net benefit, in fact, they're net negative, to the indigenous defense industry or Indian economy at large, since they take away the funding from other more urgent and productive needs.
To quote the cliché from the Art of War: To win a war without fighting it is the best strategy.
One probable escalation to deal with further India belligerence, in addition to further enhancement of infrastructure at the India borders and reinforcement and improvement of PLA forces deployed for Indian contingency, is to provide Pakistan army & air force with relatively large scale modern weapons and equipment at friendly price.
India loves to brag about their capability to launch two-front war. Give them some taste of what it would feel like.
Since India has not gone over the red lines to actually initiate military actions, it's in China's best interest to not push it into the arms of Uncle Sam. It has been India's intent right from the beginning to leverage the US-China tension. It obviously did not work and is increasingly backfiring. They are now. It should be given some time and room to make adjustments. It's in India's national interest to adjust their China policy in the last two years.
Indeed, India is in deep doodoo with its agricultural an service sectors up in smoke, but not yet an inferno.
The best policy is to let India wade in on its own sludge and collapse under the weight of its outsized military acquisition and pension liabilities.
It is quite apparent that based on the recent farmer's revolt that India is incapable of adopting transformative policies to make any kind of progress in catching up with China.
From what I read, India intends on spending it way out of the down turn. That might work, but it could also spark additional corruption and volatility, as well as higher foreign debt.
If I was China, I would apply superficial level of pressure. Some troops here, some infrastructure there, a bit couple of CVN everywhere and watch as India posture itself to poverty.
Sit back for like 5 years, wait until China is the world's largest economy, and US is suffering from strategic restraint/contraction , and check back on India in 2028 and see if they are amenable to some policy moderations.
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I think this Hindu populist movement that Modi initiated will out last him, and although it might puff up India in the short term, is hugely detrimental to India in the long term.
LOL, people are finally bigging this up.
Lol at the trolls out in full force in the comments section.
Shiets been going on for months and over 200 died. I guess 200 indians ain't worth 1 hongkong terrorist's eyeball
I wonder how the pro-government Indians are going to reconcile with the west’s meddling should/when it finally comes... now that their good friends’ citizens have started the hashtags, emo campaigns and messages... the western governments and politicians, especially the US democrats, who have been so gung ho about the police violence in Russia, can only feign ignorance for so long before being called out...
While I don’t hold any hopes, since India is a democracy beating and killing their citizens is completely fine as exemplified by the almighty US. I can only wonder what would happen should the word sanctions be thrown around... and can only imagine the minds of Modi, BJP, RSS and their supporters blowing up if an actual sanctions are applied, and that would be even funnier just imagining what state the foreign supplier dependent Indian military would be in... and finally just to top all that off, what would happen if the only country, apart from Russia and maybe Iran, with the balls to continue doing business with India was China of all places... honestly if all of the above happen, I don’t think my sides can take the laughing fit I will have...
Ps just in case... I called it here first!
While I don’t hold any hopes, since India is a democracy beating and killing their citizens is completely fine as exemplified by the almighty US. I can only wonder what would happen should the word sanctions be thrown around... and can only imagine the minds of Modi, BJP, RSS and their supporters blowing up if an actual sanctions are applied, and that would be even funnier just imagining what state the foreign supplier dependent Indian military would be in... and finally just to top all that off, what would happen if the only country, apart from Russia and maybe Iran, with the balls to continue doing business with India was China of all places... honestly if all of the above happen, I don’t think my sides can take the laughing fit I will have...
Ps just in case... I called it here first!
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