Just read an opinion piece, I think it’s a pretty good read and is pretty inline with what we have been discussing but he offers some ideas why China is picking a fight right now, with discussion of geopolitics, tho I can’t say I agree with everything, I think he give some pretty good points. If this guy’s commentary is on point then this thing should be far from over. Anyways thought I will share.
The author might have a Chinese name, but his thinking is pure American.
His analysis is illogical in that it lacks consistency (eg, he ruled out the possibility that China staged this incident to divert domestic attention from the COVID19 crisis, yet utterly failed to apply the same test to India); and a central part of it is based on the patently fake American bare faced lies about China being at fault for COVID19 and that Beijing is facing some kind of massive domestic discontent due to the crisis.
As the first and most fundamental rule of any analysis states, trash in trash out. If you based your analysis on BS, no amount of polishing can turn that turd into gold.
China’s reaction was not one born out of insecurity as the author wrongly concludes based on the fake American claims about COVID19, but rather righteous indignation.
China has already put the world on notice with its unprecedented economic spanking of Australia for trying to underhandedly advance America’s attempt to falsely blame China for COVID19. As such, India trying to make gains from China while thinking China was distracted and weakened by covid19 touched a raw nerve.
The Indian media’s fake news is all over the place because there is no Indian government direction and co-ordination because the Indian government didn’t actually want this crisis and is caught between a rock and hard place, both of its own making.
They thought they could make some cheeky symbolic gains on the boarder to score some cheap political points and present a ‘win’ for domestic consumption to distract from its own disastrous COVID19 bungling, but were first caught out by the strength of the Chinese military push back and diplomatic bluntness, giving Modi no doubt that he just crossed a red line that China is prepared to actually go to all out war about. Then it was further caught out by the pigheaded idiocy of the dead colonel, who seems like someone who drank too much of the fake news kool aid manufactured in India and pretty much decided to force a conflict because he didn’t like that the Indian government was actively working to de-escalate and withdraw.
Maybe he wanted to ‘suicide by PLA’ from the get go to try to force a war, or he just watched too much Bollywood and thought he could just tear through a whole PLA division single handedly but got booped on the head instead by the first PLA soldier he tried to bull charge.
Either way, his death and the deaths of his men that his bad choices caused pretty much called any lingering bluff Modi might have been holding out on, as provocations don’t get much more serious than a literal pile of your own dead soldiers.
Indian military might is largely illusionary, because Indian leaders are idiots who knows nothing about the military and wars. As the saying goes, great generals focus on logistics rather than tactics, and that is where the gulf in capabilities between India and China is at is greatest.
China is the workshop of the world, and manufactures pretty much everything its military uses. China has also world class infrastructure right up to the boarder. In a war, China can keep its troops supplied with weapons and munitions pretty much indefinitely. India, OTOH, barely have enough munitions for even the opening stages of any conflict
India spent all its money on flashy foreign weapons, but didn’t buy anything close to the amount of weapons needed to mount an actual full scale combat campaign with. Missiles and bombs are expensive, imported ones doubly so. To make things worse, they have a shelf life.
That is why all serious militaries make it a priority to integrate domestic weapons onto purchased platforms. India has not bothered, and it has a pitiful amount of weapons inventory that it will blow through in weeks, provided Chinese cruise and ballistic missiles don’t blow them up first.
I think Modi must know this, because not everyone in India is an idiot, and he will have generals and advisors who knows what they are taking about telling him pretty much what I have listed above.
He just chose to build a show army to impress voters rather than have an actual army built to fight and win wars.
That is why India always backs down in this stand offs when they see China getting ready to fight.
To do otherwise would invite disaster. That is why Modi was already working hard to try to de-escalate before the foolish colonel made his ill advised solo play.