Ladakh Flash Point
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A good documentary:
Bright, Thanks for the history on Indian manufacturing. One of the most basic and needed item for a country like India are guns and ammo. Now this is not as rudimentary as making plastic toys. You do need someone who knows metallurgy. Many Eastern European countries managed to do a decent job making usable guns and ammo. This is critical for the survival of a country if war breaks out and you want to have more than a week of ammo. That they failed to make this after seventy years of founding the country speaks volumes about their capabilities. Below is my conjecture based on my experience so take it for what it is.
I worked with a lot of engineers in Silicon Valley that are of Indian origin. About half or more are Brahmins, rest from other upper castes. I have not seen a Dalit, though some of them are Christians and many Christians were converted from Dalit. It is also just as likely that upper castes converted during the rule with the British as many have British last names. All of the engineers here from India come from the extreme right end of the bell curve. Human capital wise, the Brahmins seems to have similar endowment as East Asians. It only goes down from there. Since Brahmins, 5% of the population, contributes 50% or more of the elite engineers in Silicon Valley, one can see the quality of the other castes. Since the bright ones are all over here, what remains in India is of significantly lower quality on average, Brahmin or otherwise. This is born out by the fact that many low level managers in the States move back to India to head up large divisions. Many of those, after years of back in India, are moving back to the U.S. This speak of the lack of opportunities in India. The opposite is happening in China.
For manufacturing, you need a well educated blue collar work force. Machinists, welders, pipefitters, etc. In India, the only group that has enough human capital(same as the Chinese), the Brahmins, could, in theory, kick start their manufacturing. After all, 60 million people is nothing to sneeze at. Unfortunately, Brahmins and other upper castes grew up very pampered surrounded by cheap labor. They are waited on hand and foot since birth. As a rule, they do not like to get their hands dirty. In the U.S, where maintaining a house requires one to work with the hands, vast majority of the Indians that I know will pay someone else to get it done. There is nothing wrong with that, but speaks to the character of the people. The Chinese, rich or poor, are much more likely to get their hands dirty and try to fix something broken in the house. I would assume that among the upper castes, physical labor is frowned upon.
For the middle and lower castes that actually don't mind doing some of the work, much more than half are not even literate by official standards. The official standard of literacy for India is absurdly low. All you need to pass is to sign you name in one of the many languages which was inscribed in the Indian currency. So you are talking about maybe a few percent out of these that can qualify for manufacturing jobs. This is corroborated by the one PISA test India participated with two provinces in 2009, where they finished second to last. If you take that group and filter out the ones able to read instruction manuals and follow instructions, they would be a few percent, maybe 10%. These two provinces are considered above average in India.
Due to the abysmally low literacy for the country as a whole (I think still 40% illiterate by the absurdly low official standards), the few who are smart enough to qualified to be welders etc, found more rewarding jobs in other stations of life. In a country rife with red tape and dysfunctional corruption, the relatively smart ones (Not that smart by Western standards) found ways to extract a good living from this system. Since the same few smart ones also runs the system, the system is not likely to change. In other countries, revolt from the lower castes might have been possible, but the religions of India generally teach the population to be content with whatever misery that comes life's way.
Add to this the democracy, where no one is held accountable for the lack of results, nothing gets done. When the quality of the voters is low, democracy fails.
This system has been there for 70 years. It is deep rooted and unlikely to change. A few engineers who made their fortune in Silicon Valley tried to go back to India to "fix" the system. None made any dent. In India, without a platform and big sponsors, who are already part of the system, you don't get very far in politics, however honorable your intentions. The local politicians always talk big and deliver nothing.
Curious about the caste distribution; i.e, you can look up the names and figure out which castes they belong to. Parts of India have a really aggressive affirmative action program, so it's possible you ended up getting the results of AA.
About India, I doubt that India will not change; Heraclitus: change is the only constant.
Given enough time, India will find its senses and see a real reform. One question I have is whether the increasing education levels in OBCs are eventually going to cause a revolution, soft or otherwise. With democratic systems, perhaps not, but if you look at the composition of Forward Castes it's virtually intra-national colonialism; the numbers are so close to Apartheid South Africa with a well-educated and Westernized elite alongside people kept deliberately in ignorance.
If you consider that modern India came into being with the Brahmins and other upper castes (primarily upper castes) leading mass movements to get European colonialists out, and that they were only able to do so because the British educated them as compradors, you have to suspect the Brahmins and so on are afraid of what might happen if you have real alleviation of the caste system.
A bad system is most vulnerable when it attempts to reform, because it's disabling many of its control and suppression systems for its soft underbelly. When the caste inequality in India begins to fall apart, what you get is that OBCs, Shudras, whatever, start to realize that they've effectively been colonized by Forward Castes, which in one paper only amounted to 20% of the population.
Then what India risks is , or where anti-Forward Caste or successful religious minority sentiment could result in widespread persecution.
I'd suspect that's why the caste system exists and is somewhat reinforced, and that the basic education level in India is so poor. The fear is that if you educate the masses, they'll realize they're oppressed, and then the careful elite democracy forward castes established falls apart.
If Caste is merely the accentuation and apotheosis of Class, what we have then is Marx.
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That said, first, this is not a given. India could very well hold together through its democratic system, which is notoriously good at manufacturing consent and suppressing revolution. Moreover, if you look at what happened in the United States, there's a sort of "soft Messenianization" going on, where people from disadvantaged minorities join the professional classes and often lose their racial consciousness. A slow and gradual absorption of OBCs into Indian elite classes can deprive a mass revolution of skilled and intelligent leadership, making it easy to decimate.
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The last thing is, while the Chinese may not prefer to spend time bribing the Pakistanis and Bangladeshis to contain India, India in hatred of China is actually a good thing. Because China can't actually occupy India in large parts, China is an enemy for India that is relatively low cost. And what does India gain? With the prospect of Chinese pressure and real or imagined Chinese imperialism, India gets a strong stimulus to reform and self-transformation. If the Indians were just left alone with no rivals, they'd just stagnate in their traditional society. The cultural impetus to spiritual achievements as opposed to material and actual achievements means that Indian elites would see little need to accelerate the gradual opening up of the society to OBCs.
But if India were competing with China, even if it's only in Indian minds, it means that India has to either reform or perish. That's the real meaning of relatively backwards and powerless India trying to pick a fight with China. For China itself, the American threat has been excellent in focusing the minds of elites and intellectuals into developing China and not going to their usual habit of looting the state (see the end of every Chinese dynasty). For India, the Chinese threat fills a similar role in providing discipline.
Given enough time, India will find its senses and see a real reform. One question I have is whether the increasing education levels in OBCs are eventually going to cause a revolution, soft or otherwise. With democratic systems, perhaps not, but if you look at the composition of Forward Castes it's virtually intra-national colonialism; the numbers are so close to Apartheid South Africa with a well-educated and Westernized elite alongside people kept deliberately in ignorance.
If you consider that modern India came into being with the Brahmins and other upper castes (primarily upper castes) leading mass movements to get European colonialists out, and that they were only able to do so because the British educated them as compradors, you have to suspect the Brahmins and so on are afraid of what might happen if you have real alleviation of the caste system.
A bad system is most vulnerable when it attempts to reform, because it's disabling many of its control and suppression systems for its soft underbelly. When the caste inequality in India begins to fall apart, what you get is that OBCs, Shudras, whatever, start to realize that they've effectively been colonized by Forward Castes, which in one paper only amounted to 20% of the population.
Then what India risks is , or where anti-Forward Caste or successful religious minority sentiment could result in widespread persecution.
I'd suspect that's why the caste system exists and is somewhat reinforced, and that the basic education level in India is so poor. The fear is that if you educate the masses, they'll realize they're oppressed, and then the careful elite democracy forward castes established falls apart.
If Caste is merely the accentuation and apotheosis of Class, what we have then is Marx.
===
That said, first, this is not a given. India could very well hold together through its democratic system, which is notoriously good at manufacturing consent and suppressing revolution. Moreover, if you look at what happened in the United States, there's a sort of "soft Messenianization" going on, where people from disadvantaged minorities join the professional classes and often lose their racial consciousness. A slow and gradual absorption of OBCs into Indian elite classes can deprive a mass revolution of skilled and intelligent leadership, making it easy to decimate.
===
The last thing is, while the Chinese may not prefer to spend time bribing the Pakistanis and Bangladeshis to contain India, India in hatred of China is actually a good thing. Because China can't actually occupy India in large parts, China is an enemy for India that is relatively low cost. And what does India gain? With the prospect of Chinese pressure and real or imagined Chinese imperialism, India gets a strong stimulus to reform and self-transformation. If the Indians were just left alone with no rivals, they'd just stagnate in their traditional society. The cultural impetus to spiritual achievements as opposed to material and actual achievements means that Indian elites would see little need to accelerate the gradual opening up of the society to OBCs.
But if India were competing with China, even if it's only in Indian minds, it means that India has to either reform or perish. That's the real meaning of relatively backwards and powerless India trying to pick a fight with China. For China itself, the American threat has been excellent in focusing the minds of elites and intellectuals into developing China and not going to their usual habit of looting the state (see the end of every Chinese dynasty). For India, the Chinese threat fills a similar role in providing discipline.
Lastly, on Ladakh, we've been focusing on tanks and air forces, but with the Armenian conflict, what about loitering munitions?
China seems to be operating a short-duration LOMU / suicide drone, while India has Harop drones from Israel, which have far superior endurances.
On the other hand, Chinese EW is either world-class or close to world-class. Indian EW is an unknown quantity but we can suspect it to be poor. Once jamming kicks in, all the drones are either off-line or stuck in autonomous mode.
There's also the quantity issue. India likely does not have more than 100 drones for operation, while China is a major manufacturer of both civilian and military drones. Harop could pose a threat given its long loitering time and the absence of modern anti-drone weapons (unless the Chinese want to deploy Silent Hunter in a front-line capacity), but China is likely to just have more LOMU than India would.
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There's an old Indian article from a couple of months back about the Chinese not seeking a traditional confrontation of infantry and tanks, but a military revolution conflict of PGMs. Whereas mountainous terrain has traditionally been advantageous to the defender, as well as infantry assets defending, Chinese precision-artillery firepower as well as suicide drones could turn it into a rout for the Indian Army, as long as the PLAAF and PLAGF air defenses can keep the Indian Air Force at bay.
China seems to be operating a short-duration LOMU / suicide drone, while India has Harop drones from Israel, which have far superior endurances.
On the other hand, Chinese EW is either world-class or close to world-class. Indian EW is an unknown quantity but we can suspect it to be poor. Once jamming kicks in, all the drones are either off-line or stuck in autonomous mode.
There's also the quantity issue. India likely does not have more than 100 drones for operation, while China is a major manufacturer of both civilian and military drones. Harop could pose a threat given its long loitering time and the absence of modern anti-drone weapons (unless the Chinese want to deploy Silent Hunter in a front-line capacity), but China is likely to just have more LOMU than India would.
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There's an old Indian article from a couple of months back about the Chinese not seeking a traditional confrontation of infantry and tanks, but a military revolution conflict of PGMs. Whereas mountainous terrain has traditionally been advantageous to the defender, as well as infantry assets defending, Chinese precision-artillery firepower as well as suicide drones could turn it into a rout for the Indian Army, as long as the PLAAF and PLAGF air defenses can keep the Indian Air Force at bay.
In the initial phase of the conflict, with a superior air defense from China, the survival rate for drones will be abysmal. Drones can only be used once air superiority is established and enemy air defense knocked out. Now what are the chances that India can do that? In the Armenia conflict, neither side have a very good air defense system.
You appear to be wandering around aimlessly in your musings. LOL
Picking an enemy or competitor, real or imagined, might help you improve if it motivates your the right way. But, it may also backfire disastrously. For almost sixty years now, India is still struggling to search for the right way to collaborate/compete/beat/revenge China, despite the strong hatred it harbors against China.
On the other hand, China has had hate-love relationships with both superpowers of the Cold War. It learned wholeheartedly and got help from the Big Brother the Soviet Union in the '50's, had a pretty serious fall out in the '60s and '70s, warmed up again since the '90s and the two have been strategic partners now. With the US, it had fought a war in Korea, was in a bitter cold war from the '50s to the '60s, and became virtual allies in the '70s and the '80s. It then embraced the capitalism, the US style, wholeheartedly. In both relationships, China was pragmatic and strategic; it has learned, improved and grown from a junior partner to a peer competitor/partner.
See the difference?
It does not follow that. The Media says India is winning. The entire society is talking trash and thumbing their chests. Until a full scale war happens and India is badly beaten, the mindset is "India is not the India of 1962". If India is doing so well, why the need for reform? If a full scale war happen, India will already be broken up.
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