well i think over the long run, say 50 years, you will see 3 countries at the top in terms of economic and military power: China, US and India. Or, with the most pessimistic view of India, they will have a huge population that can be armed with imported weapon. So i would not take that country so lightly in a future potential global conflict.
As opposed to Japan - that is a country, if you really try hard enough, can be uprooted altogether, like the US did in ww2, but i dont think any power could do the same to India. So i think your analogy is not appropriate.
I think a proper historical example, would be Germany vs France in 1870s, where i think Bismark made the mistake of taking alsace-lorraine, which makes France the mortal enemy for the next 70 years to come. Well you could argue military performance of France during that period, but you cannot deny alsace-lorraine poisoned the relationship to the root, and it limited Germans strategic option all those years.