Ladakh Flash Point

ohan_qwe said:

Just a random thoughts. Does China or India have special hand to hand combatants or is it regular soldiers? Would be funny if China drafted shaolin monks and have them fight Indias equivalent. I guess using special troops like Thor Björnsson (the mountain) could win a fist fight quite easily.

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I honestly don't think Shaolin monks would win any real fights. The flashy and complicated moves used by Shaolin monks will never work in a real combat. The real combat is ugly and fast. In a moment when you are fighting for your life, the only thing you can rely on is muscle memory of simply moves. You punch and kick hard! If you check out Qi Jiguang's handbook of combat moves in the Ming dynasty, you will find that real combat moves are typically very simple punching and kicking moves. You need to drill them into soldiers' heads so that they can make these moves in their sleep and execute them when they are fighting for their lives while huge amount of adrenaline secreted in their brains makes them into "mindless" savages.

plawolf said:

Are there wars in the Taiwan straits and SCS that we are unaware of? If not, nothing is bogged down and can be redeployed within hours. These are airforce assets, not bunkers for crying out loud.

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To be fair, diverting forces from eastern China to a secondary front would certainly weaken Chinese posture in West Pacific. China most definitely will keep this in mind if it decides to divert strength from its coast.
That being said, I do not see any scenario that end with India coming on top, except unrealistic ones like China deciding to occupy the entirety of India. The power disparity between China and India far exceeds US and China, and if US can cross 10000km of water to give China a hard time, China can certainly give India a much harder time from across a mountain range.

vesicles said:

I honestly don't think Shaolin monks would win any real fights. The flashy and complicated moves used by Shaolin monks will never work in a real combat. The real combat is ugly and fast. In a moment when you are fighting for your life, the only thing you can rely on is muscle memory of simply moves. You punch and kick hard! If you check out Qi Jiguang's handbook of combat moves in the Ming dynasty, you will find that real combat moves are typically very simple punching and kicking moves. You need to drill them into soldiers' heads so that they can make these moves in their sleep and execute them when they are fighting for their lives while huge amount of adrenaline secreted in their brains makes them into "mindless" savages.

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The shaolin part was just that it would be funny to watch on the news.

The real question is if they use special hand to hand combatats. If China can find soldiers of the same height to fill a parade it would not be unreasonable to think that they have trained units for this scenario as the fights have been going on for years now.

I also wonder if it's regular mountaineer or if it's elite troops they send on those patrolles.

It's also strange that the Indians who films everything haven't released a video on what have happened.

Josh Luo said:

On this point, isn't it a fact that India has more military airports and fighter planes available in the northern part of the country than China has in Tibet and Xinjiang? It is true that China has a slight edge when it comes to the deployment of J-16s and J-10Cs in the Western Theater Command, but it seems like achieving aerial superiority (meaning shooting down most the Su-30MKIs, A-50 AWACS, and neutralizing the Akash, QRSAMs, and S-400 SAMs deployed in the theatre) would still be a touch shot. It means the PLAAF would be stretched thin for aerial combat (depending on how quickly the Su-30MKIs and A-50s could be neutralized), anti-radiation combat (against SAM sites, if the PLAAF has stockpiled enough YJ-91s), and surgical strikes against Indian Army armor columns, hardened positions, airports, and artillery batteries to open up the roads for the PLA Ground Force. For aerial combat, the PLAAF also needs to have to figure out how to protect its KJ-500s, since they are extremely vulnerable to KS-172s launched from Su-30MKIs. The PESA radar on Su-30MKIs aren't as efficient as the AESAs on J-10C and J-16, but good enough for a big bite.

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I'll respond with a couple of general points, as other members know more about the PLAAF's specific capabilities

1) Achieving air superiority doesn't require "shooting down most" of the opposing force (which rarely happens.) You can have a 1000 aircraft, but if I cripple your C4I and blind all your radars, it's game over for you. Air Superiority is about forcing the opposing side to disengage, which depends on a lot of variables besides how many assets are available e.g. C4I survivability, the EW situation, the survivability of your airfields and availability of ammunition/spare parts etc. And in all of these dimensions, the PLAAF is expected to have a huge advantage over the IAF, even according to Indian analysts.

2) I'm sure that the IAF planners already expect that in a full scale war between China and India, the PAF would not be sitting on the sidelines and its airbases would be available for the PLAAF. This is what the bi-annual SHAHEEN series exercises between the PLAAF and PAF are all about. Both sides have been working on interoperability for years now, preparing for exactly this eventuality. Also keep in mind that even without the PAF's airbases, I'm sure that the PLAAF can build new airbases in its Western Theater pretty quickly if it requires them.

watdahek said:

To be fair, diverting forces from eastern China to a secondary front would certainly weaken Chinese posture in West Pacific. China most definitely will keep this in mind if it decides to divert strength from its coast.
That being said, I do not see any scenario that end with India coming on top, except unrealistic ones like China deciding to occupy the entirety of India. The power disparity between China and India far exceeds US and China, and if US can cross 10000km of water to give China a hard time, China can certainly give India a much harder time from across a mountain range.

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In the west Pacific, China mostly relies on their navy and air force, while they will rely on their ground troops on the Indian border. By the time they will need their ground troops on their east coast, they will be in a lot of trouble, as in a full scale foreign invasion is happening and their navy and AF have been wiped out...

I don't think there will be a war between China and India at this time, based on the reactions of both governments. They are mostly quiet despite the emotions on the Indian streets. The Indian military might want a fight to avenge their defeat in 1962, but they don't make decisions. I am coming to believe that the Chinese had won the hand-to-hand combat so lopsided that the Indian military is thinking twice about fighting now. Also, the Indians had been bolstered by their preparation in the regions for the past few decades. They thought they had the superiority. Yet, for the past few weeks, the Chinese just demonstrated their capability to mobilize so quickly and efficiently to the potentially troubling sites. I think this whole thing will go away quickly.

It's easier for Indians to reinforce that area though.

ohan_qwe said:

The shaolin part was just that it would be funny to watch on the news.

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I understand. I have been a little obsessed with the recent hilarious fights between MMA and traditional martial artists...

ohan_qwe said:

The real question is if they use special hand to hand combatats. If China can find soldiers of the same height to fill a parade it would not be unreasonable to think that they have trained units for this scenario as the fights have been going on for years now.

I also wonder if it's regular mountaineer or if it's elite troops they send on those patrolles.

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Not sure what kind of troops from both sides have been patrolling the borders. With that being said, we now know that, at least 600 troops from both sides involved in the fight. It would be hard to get that many specialized combatants to such remote areas and keep them there for so long while doing boring patrols.

ohan_qwe said:

It's also strange that the Indians who films everything haven't released a video on what have happened.

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This is also another reason that I believe that the Indian lost the fight so badly. We can still find that video of a PLA interpreter being pushed on the ground by Indian troops using a shield. So we know that the Indians take videos in that region. I am almost 100% sure that some people took a video of the whole thing. The Indians don't want to show it because they lost it so badly... My guess.

Breaking News: China releases 10 Indian soldiers

The "strict no bullet use" is so Chinese. It's signals that China can escalate further, but is restrained.

The "no publishing casualties" is so Chinese. It signals that China wants to restrain nationalism (on both sides), even allowing India to claim "43 dead or injured" to provide ambiguity and save face for India. So Chinese.

I fully believe Xi Jinping supports this at the highest level.

I fully predict India will come to the table, there will be some agreement that leaves India saving-face (claiming victory) but cede defacto control of territory to China.

jfy1155 said:

Breaking News: China releases 10 Indian soldiers

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Oh lord, a Lt colonel and 3 majors...what a clusterf*** by Indian troops. Think about the degree of restraint on the Chinese side not to publicize and shame India over this. Honestly, hard to fathom how China could have suffered any significant casualties to not do that.