Well, the price for being ill-prepared is that your soldiers die. The Indian side has known that these types of weapons were used. So why were they not prepared. Some reports state the Chinese side had riot gear. Not really an excuse.
Ladakh Flash Point
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Mods are more or less alone and working most of the day ... and YES, my hammer will hit hard any idiot who cannot keep calm and disciplined.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
What are the military and strategic objectives for this war you are advocating?
Without a specific, measurable, achievable, realistic and timeframed set of clear military and strategic objectives that you are trying to achieve through military action, military action is doomed to failure.
What China wants is peace and stability on the boarder, that cannot be achieved through military means unless you mean to conquer all of India, which is clearly not on the cards.
Just giving the Indian military a bloody nose will buy you a measure of peace and stability, but that will always only be temporary.
If India makes enough of a nuisance of itself, China may eventually conclude that a military campaign to achieve short term peace and quiet is worthwhile, but we are very far off from such a threshold. And to be honest, China never really likes short term fixes.
So if India is stupid enough to make China feel like military action is inevitable, China will seek to make that war the last war China needs to fight with India.
And no, I’m not talking about some final solution like idea before anyone starts.
But I can see China either teaming up with Pakistan and Nepal; and/or local indigenous peoples in northern India, and simply carve out a defensible chunk of northern India as either new independent buffer state, or a new Pakistani province so that China no longer have a land boarder with India.
Any type of large scale military engagement is clearly not in China or India's interest and both countries are undoubtedly trying to deescalate.
IMHO based on snippets of news articles, it seems China purposely did not disclose PLA casualty figures because either they were very low or non-existent. This would serve China's interest in negotiations and deescalating the situation with India.
The worst thing China could do is disclose factual accounts of what happened and winning the propaganda battle, which seems to be a larger group of PLA soldiers with melee weapons beating/killing unarmed Indian troops. This would put Modi in a very difficult position politically, serve the interest of Indian war hawks and no doubt cause large scale anti-China protests across India.
China is trying to downplay this event and save Modi face, which would ultimately make negotiations easier.
IMHO based on snippets of news articles, it seems China purposely did not disclose PLA casualty figures because either they were very low or non-existent. This would serve China's interest in negotiations and deescalating the situation with India.
The worst thing China could do is disclose factual accounts of what happened and winning the propaganda battle, which seems to be a larger group of PLA soldiers with melee weapons beating/killing unarmed Indian troops. This would put Modi in a very difficult position politically, serve the interest of Indian war hawks and no doubt cause large scale anti-China protests across India.
China is trying to downplay this event and save Modi face, which would ultimately make negotiations easier.
Will Brahmaputra river come to play in part of the Chinese strategy?
On this point, isn't it a fact that India has more military airports and fighter planes available in the northern part of the country than China has in Tibet and Xinjiang? It is true that China has a slight edge when it comes to the deployment of J-16s and J-10Cs in the Western Theater Command, but it seems like achieving aerial superiority (meaning shooting down most the Su-30MKIs, A-50 AWACS, and neutralizing the Akash, QRSAMs, and S-400 SAMs deployed in the theatre) would still be a touch shot. It means the PLAAF would be stretched thin for aerial combat (depending on how quickly the Su-30MKIs and A-50s could be neutralized), anti-radiation combat (against SAM sites, if the PLAAF has stockpiled enough YJ-91s), and surgical strikes against Indian Army armor columns, hardened positions, airports, and artillery batteries to open up the roads for the PLA Ground Force. For aerial combat, the PLAAF also needs to have to figure out how to protect its KJ-500s, since they are extremely vulnerable to KS-172s launched from Su-30MKIs. The PESA radar on Su-30MKIs aren't as efficient as the AESAs on J-10C and J-16, but good enough for a big bite.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Having military airport close to the border is not wise When the fighting start they will be subjected to barage of artillery attack be it Gun or rocket Chinese rocket range is now 350km easily reached those airport close to the border.
China do have airport close to the border but not many 3 or 4 I think But the bulk of the air power is based further from the border in Xinjiang and Qinghai The range of Chinese J11 and J10 can easily reached the border.
I read those stupid article comparing Indian air force strength to only China western military command But that is stupid because when the shit hit the fan China will bring reinforcement from other military command or even reserve unit With roughly 1000 to 1200 modern 4th generation fighter China has ample supply of jet fighter
China do have airport close to the border but not many 3 or 4 I think But the bulk of the air power is based further from the border in Xinjiang and Qinghai The range of Chinese J11 and J10 can easily reached the border.
I read those stupid article comparing Indian air force strength to only China western military command But that is stupid because when the shit hit the fan China will bring reinforcement from other military command or even reserve unit With roughly 1000 to 1200 modern 4th generation fighter China has ample supply of jet fighter
I could kind of foresee that China would conquer Arunachal Pradesh, Leh in Kashmir (and subsequently hand it to Pakistan), Sikkim (and set up a puppet regime), and even carpet-bomb Dharamshala to demoralize (kill a chicken to scare the monkey) Western supporters of Free Tibet. However, all these Chinese wet dreams would require the PLAAF achieving aerial superiority first, which would be extremely difficult given the current status of PLAAF (which is bogged down over Taiwan and South China Sea). Also, there are only three military grade airports in Tibet (Lhasa, Shigatze, and Ngari), so the PLAAF and PLAGF would have to spend considerable resources defending these three vital airfields.
1. I think the important factor to recognize here is that, by deploying and stationing troops to the entire LAC area right now, Xi Jinping is putting immense pressure on Modi. Specifically, the intention is for Modi to offer something in exchange for a return to the status quo.
2. China is not about to launch any pre-meditated attack on Indian positions. However, what China has done is take control of what had previously been areas that were only accessed via foot patrols, and are now threatening to turn those areas into forward outputs at the points of the LAC all along the Western sector. This is analogous to what we now see at Doklam, with a full fledged Chinese military base replete with helipads and trenches.
3. As to the motives of these actions, from what I've seen, it could be summed up as a case of Xi Jinping determining that the Wuhan and Mamallapuram dialogues in 2018 and 2019 with Modi, in which China offered India the 'carrot' of cooperation and spirit of friendship, was a failure. This is due to several Indian actions that have breached the trust of that compromise, for instance revoking article 370 on the status of Kashmir, openly advocating for the recapture of Aksai Chin by Amit Shah (can you imagine Wang Yi saying something similar), increased engagements with the Quad, increased trade barriers against Chinese firms, continued construction of roads towards the border (specifically the bridge across the Shyok river last year), not signing up to the BRI (and in fact actively working against it), etc.
4. Xi Jinping believes the carrot has thus failed. Now obviously, in normal times, one would not necessarily go directly to the stick. However, the coronavirus pandemic has turned these into extraordinary times. Xi Jinping is basically forcing Modi to negotiate by giving something in return, and I think some sort of quid pro quo is the most likely outcome. The alternative, less likely but also much more probable than open conflict, would be for Modi to simply accept permanent Chinese troop deployments on the LAC, with some face saving gesture by China that can allow him to claim victory.
5. I don't see a full fledged border war occurring. Even though Modi's advisors are horrible, I think when it comes to starting an actual war with China, he will get the necessary advice and guidance to make the right decision. That is hopefully what the scheduled all-party meeting on Friday between Modi's BJP and Congress, along with other regional parties, will be about.
I think what is truly unique about this situation is that China is essentially suggesting to India that while China will not initiate open conflict, it also does not fear one. In contrast, Doklam never got to the point of non-lethal engagement that we have been seeing at Pangong lake. In addition, at Doklam, the ultimate decision for escalation was on China's end. Here, the decision to escalate resides with India. By placing that decision into the hands of a foreign power, China is saying 'We hope for peace, but won't shy away from a war if necessary.' Not only that, but China is taking such a line under the current conditions of a historic escalation in tension far greater than at Doklam.
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