Ladakh Flash Point

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Figaro

Senior Member
Registered Member
Some Indians talk really big. They think they can joke about the Nanking Massacre.
The only side which is capable of conducting a massacre of that scale would be the PLA (of course not saying they would, but they have the capability). New Delhi at its closest point is only 300 kilometers away from the border. Rest assured, if war does break out, I can guarantee the Chinese will push further than they did in 1962 to settle this border dispute once and for all by going after their capital. Luckily for the Indians, the PLA historically speaking has not committed war crimes ... if anything they treated the Indian POWs better than their own soldiers back in 1962. But should India decide to target Chinese civilians in Tibet, Sichuan, or Yunnan through missile attack, all bets are off as to what the PLA would do once they enter New Delhi. The Indians should still remember what Timur did to Delhi in 1398.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Superpower Indian army and SFF (India's own Waffen-SS) just took a strategic valley inside what Chinese consider their side of LAC
There is no such thing as an LAC that is considered. LAC means actual control; you either control it or you don't. It's not the same as a territorial claim. What's so special about Superpower Indian army or Indian SFF? Are they less prone than the regular Indian army to accidentally cause fratricide? LOL Indians "took" a valley that was unoccupied and already on their side of the LAC, meaning they just walked around. That's an achievement for Indians these days.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
IIIRC information seems to suggest that the PLAAF has around 2, 3 HQ-9 batteries in the sector.

The prospective Indian strike I'm worried about is a massive alpha strike, which implies firing off all their missiles at once. This is a saturation business;, a couple of hundred missiles heading to specific targets means that you simply don't have enough SAMs available to shoot down enough of the missiles.

Firstly, you realised that HQ9s are not the only SAMs China has right? Being the longest range domestic SAM should mean it is also the most expensive and fewest in number.

There will be more HQ16, 17 and other SAM a systems, as well as potentially point defence assets like LD2000 at air bases and other key targets.

Secondly, as mentioned before, such a large, armed Indian strike force will be detected well before they get within launch range, so all PLA and PLAAF assets would be scrambled and moving away from peacetime positions.

Even if they Indians can launch all those missiles without being intercepted, they are still not going to achieve much since they will most likely be hitting empty bases.

Lastly, considering the Brahmos and other Indian weapons are imported (local assemble doesn’t mean anything when key components still need to be imported), they are unlikely to get any replacements while combat is still ongoing.

China would be delighted if they shot their entire load on the first day of war to hit the minimal number of PLA forward deployed assets. That means China doesn’t need to worry about attacks later, when they actually start surging forces into the region after hostilities have started.
 

muddie

Junior Member
Let’s not descend to their level please.

Exactly, not sure why people care about what random citizens post anonymously online. It's pointless debating "what ifs" especially if you are trying to frame it around how Indians think. What matters is facts and the truth is always revealed at the end.

It's truly unfortunate that as spectators we can't even rely on official Indian media to report facts. At least Western MSM has to report some facts even if they try to spin the story.
 

Figaro

Senior Member
Registered Member
Indian, Chinese commanders hold talks over mounting tensions
AIJAZ HUSSAIN

SRINAGAR, India (AP) — Indian and Chinese military commanders held talks for a second day Tuesday following a new escalation in tensions along their contested border in the Ladakh region.

Both of the Asian giants have accused the other of fresh provocations, including allegations of soldiers crossing into each other’s territory, months after their deadliest standoff in decades.

Details of the talks which resumed Tuesday morning weren’t immediately disclosed. The two countries have amassed soldiers and equipment in the region in recent months.

On Monday, India said its soldiers had thwarted “provocative” movements by China’s military on Saturday night. In turn, China’s defense ministry accused Indian troops of crossing established lines of control and creating provocations along the disputed border on Monday.


Both India and China have provided little information, but media in the two countries have given extensive coverage to the escalating tensions.

Indian authorities on Monday cut cellphone service in the Changtang area, which includes most of the cold-desert border areas between India and China. No explanation was given for the move, but officials have often blocked communication links in the region citing security issues.

Authorities also were controlling civilian traffic into Ladakh, allowing only emergency services and supplies from Kashmir.

In Beijing, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying accused India of fueling new tensions. She said such moves damaged border peace and undermined the countries' recent efforts to ease the situation.

“The Indian side may have a different statement from the Chinese side, but there can only be one fact or truth,” Hua said at a regular daily briefing. “Over the past 70 years ... China has never initiated any war or conflict, and we have never invaded an inch of land of other countries.”

India’s Ministry of External Affairs said Chinese soldiers had entered the Indian side three times in the last three days but Indian soldiers did not allow them to “unilaterally alter the status quo.”

“The actions and behavior of the Chinese side since earlier this year along the LAC has been in clear violation of the bilateral agreements and protocols,” it said in a statement, referring to the Line of Actual Control, the disputed and undemarcated 3,500-kilometer (2,175-mile) border between India and China that stretches from the Ladakh region in the north to the Indian state of Sikkim.

The standoff is over disputed portions of a pristine landscape high in the Karakoram mountains that boasts the world’s highest landing strip, a glacier that feeds one of the largest irrigation systems in the world, and is a critical link in China’s massive “Belt and Road” infrastructure project.

India unilaterally declared Ladakh a federal territory and separated it from disputed Kashmir in August 2019, ending its semi-autonomous status and straining the already prickly relationship between New Delhi and Beijing. China was among the countries to strongly condemn the move, raising it at international forums including the U.N. Security Council.

According to some Indian and Chinese strategic experts, India’s move exacerbated existing tensions with China, leading to the deadly June border clash.

The two nations fought a border war in 1962 that also spilled into Ladakh and ended in an uneasy truce. Since then, troops from opposing sides have guarded the undefined mountain border area, occasionally brawling. They have agreed not to attack each other with firearms.

Rival soldiers brawled bitterly in May, and in June fought with clubs, stones and their fists, leaving 20 Indian soldiers dead. China did not report any casualties, although unconfirmed reports based on photos of new burial grounds say Chinese losses may have topped three dozen.

Accusing each other of instigating the violence, both sides have pledged to safeguard their territory but also try to end the standoff, which has dramatically changed the India-China relationship.

Several rounds of military and diplomatic talks on ending the crisis have been unsuccessful.

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Looks like idiots journalists are still being fooled by pictures of a Chinese military cemetery taken in 2019 o_O ... disappointing to see a paper like AP even fall for this complete nonsense. Forget the bad PS job, the Indians literally think a two year old cemetery picture is proof of Chinese deaths lol.
 

Inst

Captain
Firstly, you realised that HQ9s are not the only SAMs China has right? Being the longest range domestic SAM should mean it is also the most expensive and fewest in number.

There will be more HQ16, 17 and other SAM a systems, as well as potentially point defence assets like LD2000 at air bases and other key targets.

Secondly, as mentioned before, such a large, armed Indian strike force will be detected well before they get within launch range, so all PLA and PLAAF assets would be scrambled and moving away from peacetime positions.

Even if they Indians can launch all those missiles without being intercepted, they are still not going to achieve much since they will most likely be hitting empty bases.

Lastly, considering the Brahmos and other Indian weapons are imported (local assemble doesn’t mean anything when key components still need to be imported), they are unlikely to get any replacements while combat is still ongoing.

China would be delighted if they shot their entire load on the first day of war to hit the minimal number of PLA forward deployed assets. That means China doesn’t need to worry about attacks later, when they actually start surging forces into the region after hostilities have started.

The problem with the proximity to the border is that China can't actually intercept the launch platforms, since the launch platforms will be within Indian airspace. The only thing available to intercept would be the cruise missiles themselves, which would be challenging to intercept by virtue of their high speed and potentially ground-hugging trajectories.

===

As far as the Indians themselves go:

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Some accounts describe the Indians and Pakistanis ripping fetuses out of wombs and roasting babies.

So the ultra-nationalist Indian sentiment is culturally congruent. I'm trying my best to like India here...
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
The problem with the proximity to the border is that China can't actually intercept the launch platforms, since the launch platforms will be within Indian airspace.

If China detects a mass launch of IAF fighters all heavily armed, heading towards the boarder, it would take that as a sign of imminent attack. International law allows states to pre-emptively counter attack in such circumstances and you do not have to wait to be attacked first. It’s the same as if someone winds their arm up for a punch, you don’t need to wait for that first punch to land before you respond.

In such circumstances, crossing into Indian airspace would be an irrelevance. The PLA will do what it needs to do, political and diplomatic niceties cease to have much meaning when bullets are fired in anger. Their only focus would be to obliterate the Indians. The diplomats can sort out the aftermath.

The only thing available to intercept would be the cruise missiles themselves, which would be challenging to intercept by virtue of their high speed and potentially ground-hugging trajectories.

Firstly, you realise that high speed and ground hugging are mutually exclusive right? A terrain hugging supersonic cruise missile will either smear itself across the first mountain it comes across or rip its own wings off trying to turn around it at supersonic speeds. Remember rockets cannot throttle like engines, so it’s not like the Brahmos can slow down and speed up as terrain shifts. It’s one speed all the way.

Also, you will not achieve anything close to max range in low level flight compared to the near ballistic trajectory Brahmos was intended to fly.

That’s why Brahmos makes a poor choice as a cruise missile platform.

They will have to choose between flying fast or flying low. To go low enough to still engage in supersonic flight without needing to worry to much about having to evade ground features is rather meaningless when opfor has AWACS and is not limited by ground LOS. And flying that high would offer zero terrain masking benefits to make it harder for SAMs to engage you.

On top of that, any missile attack launched from Indian airspace will need to clear the Himalayas, which against would put paid to any notion of terrain hugging or element of surprise.

If the Indians are using Brahmos as cruise missiles, they might as well not bother with ground hugging and just rely on sheer speed alone.

But even then that’s not really worth much, because unlike the west, China has plenty of supersonic AShMs of its own, which means its own SAMs would have been designed and tested against such high speed targets.
 

SimaQian

Junior Member
Registered Member
Here's a reddit subforum from the other side of the fence with less fake news.
I see at least some of them are asking for verifiable sources not the ones that are mostly described here.
Some of them are tired of their own fake news too. Some of them are very detailed, but who knows which ones are true.
So we should check what are they up to on the other side.

https://www.reddit.com/r/IndianDefense/comments/gqwmrp
 
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