Ladakh Flash Point
- Thread starter Mt1701d
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He's Indian though lol ... what would you expect. Wouldn't you expect Chinese analysts to be a little biased against Indians too lol?
Look at the 0s in 二零二零年.
Either the tomb carvers have gotten very crude or it's a photoshop.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Good spot, but this was already proven as a PS job a while back.
IMO the Indians aren't as hopeless as people here believe, but that's only because the PLA is screwing up. If the InAF wants to do it, they can launch a massive alpha strike on all PLA airbases near the border using their long-ranged missiles. Then, with air defense crippled in the short-term, they can bomb PLA positions while advancing ground troops.
The PLA is stuck with two uncomfortable options:
#1, it can shoot down Su-30MKIs as they come in for the strike run, but the Su-30MKIs would come down over Indian airspace. Global opinion would be quite negative to China.
#2, it can take the damage.
The PLA is only stuck in this position for the following reasons:
#1, the PLA isn't fielding sufficient air defenses in the region to block the InAF. A sufficient volume of HQ-9s and similar SAM systems with anti-missile capability can stop Indian cruise missiles in their tracks.
#2, the PLA is moving too many assets too close to the border. Hotan airbase is an example; Hotan is within strike range of the Su-30MKI / Brahmos-A aircraft missile combo without Su-30MKIs having to violate Chinese airspace. Yet, for whatever reason, the PLAAF moved two J-20s in. The J-20s might be untouchable (or nearly so) by the InAF's assets in the air, but once they're on the ground they're sitting ducks for Indian munitions. Remember, a Fw 190 from WW2 can destroy an F-22--all it needs is that the F-22 is on the ground and the Fw 190 is in the air.
A serious PLA attempt to engage the InAF would either be a full air defense, with hundreds of anti-cruise missile systems at each air base, or a second-strike capability, wherein the Chinese forces assigned to the border function as bait, while a more substantial force sits to their rear, ready to reinforce and punish the InA / InAF if they try something.
The PLA is stuck with two uncomfortable options:
#1, it can shoot down Su-30MKIs as they come in for the strike run, but the Su-30MKIs would come down over Indian airspace. Global opinion would be quite negative to China.
#2, it can take the damage.
The PLA is only stuck in this position for the following reasons:
#1, the PLA isn't fielding sufficient air defenses in the region to block the InAF. A sufficient volume of HQ-9s and similar SAM systems with anti-missile capability can stop Indian cruise missiles in their tracks.
#2, the PLA is moving too many assets too close to the border. Hotan airbase is an example; Hotan is within strike range of the Su-30MKI / Brahmos-A aircraft missile combo without Su-30MKIs having to violate Chinese airspace. Yet, for whatever reason, the PLAAF moved two J-20s in. The J-20s might be untouchable (or nearly so) by the InAF's assets in the air, but once they're on the ground they're sitting ducks for Indian munitions. Remember, a Fw 190 from WW2 can destroy an F-22--all it needs is that the F-22 is on the ground and the Fw 190 is in the air.
A serious PLA attempt to engage the InAF would either be a full air defense, with hundreds of anti-cruise missile systems at each air base, or a second-strike capability, wherein the Chinese forces assigned to the border function as bait, while a more substantial force sits to their rear, ready to reinforce and punish the InA / InAF if they try something.
Also, for the recent flare-up in violence, note that India just reported that its GDP dropped 24% y/y in the April-June quarter.
Modi apparently has a habit of wagging the dog with some kind of military distraction every time a politically sensitive date comes up and he's looking bad.
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The problem from my point of view is the shoddiness of PLA air defenses; these could be significantly upgraded with layers of anti-cruise missile equipment, or that the PLA could sacrifice the frontline assets (but I remind you, Lhasa is very close to the Indian border), but it's creating a temptation for Modi to wag the dog with an alpha strike against the PLA. Moreover, a Chinese victory helps support the "China Threat" thesis for certain American politicians, so for the next two months, China sort of has its hands tied. A major Indian strike after November, however, is much more recoverable for China and can potentially lead to the Indians forcing Modi out.
Modi apparently has a habit of wagging the dog with some kind of military distraction every time a politically sensitive date comes up and he's looking bad.
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The problem from my point of view is the shoddiness of PLA air defenses; these could be significantly upgraded with layers of anti-cruise missile equipment, or that the PLA could sacrifice the frontline assets (but I remind you, Lhasa is very close to the Indian border), but it's creating a temptation for Modi to wag the dog with an alpha strike against the PLA. Moreover, a Chinese victory helps support the "China Threat" thesis for certain American politicians, so for the next two months, China sort of has its hands tied. A major Indian strike after November, however, is much more recoverable for China and can potentially lead to the Indians forcing Modi out.
But striking a deep target like Hotan and Tibet means a no hold barred responses from PLA though, the worst case could happen will be losing Kashmir especially if Pakistan joins in. Furthermore, wagging the dog too hard might lead to less appetite in deepening military cooperation with India from other countries.
That's the problem, China can't win before November 3rd (US time). In truth, the Indians have gotten really annoying and it'd be worth it to push in and let the Pakistanis pick up the pieces; i.e, have a general insurrection in Kashmir, when the InA tries to intervene, Pakistani units move in backed by Chinese firepower.
New Delhi is only 400km from the Chinese border, Chinese MLRS can cover much of the border area. Since they are on an higher elevation they may have extended range.
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