India has..the aspiration of a hegemonic superpower, on a level higher than even US. Sadly, they dont possess the capability nor mentality to achieve it.
Ladakh Flash Point
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India has..the aspiration of a hegemonic superpower, on a level higher than even US. Sadly, they dont possess the capability nor mentality to achieve it.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Well actually this time was again India probing to see if they could try to capitalise on a possible moment of Chinese weakness.
Back in June, when all this started, COVID19 was still in its infancy in India.
OTOH, India leaders no doubt were buying into the most extreme western MSM BS fake news about how bad COVID19 was in China and that China was suppressing its infection and death figures.
That was why they probed, to test Chinese response and was hoping that China would be too preoccupied with COVID19 to want to risk a war with India so they can make some land grabs.
The Indian leadership realised pretty quickly that there was no advantage to be had, so was all set to de-escalate and pull back (hence the original commander level agreement), but then that hothead colonel decided to take matters into his own hands and managed to get himself and 19 others under his command killed in the most humiliating manner possible, by the elements from their desperate fleeing rather than direct enemy action.
since then this boarder dispute has taken on a life of its own thanks largely to the irresponsible Indian media fanning the flames at every turn, making the Indians desperate to try to regain some of the face they lost from having men die in such a ridiculous way. That was why the Indians decided to send a token warship to mess around in the SCS.
As I have stressed many times before, India is a lost cause from a Chinese POV. Their entire modern national identity is based on toxic mix of western liberal democratic koolaid and colonial era racial hierarchy, mixed in with some religious manifest destiny nonsense. By their twisted view of the world, the white man is rightly the masters of the universe, but then it should be the non-white true believers like themselves who should be the best of the rest.
So long as a strong and prosperous China exists, that fundamentally undermines their core belief on the natural order of the world.
They will never be happy unless China is in ruins and destitute, and will actively work towards the downfall of China any which way they can. Anti-Chinese hostility is now a fundamental part of modern Indian national identity to be so easily shifted. Hate is a powerful emotion easy to feed and hard to reverse.
Their only saving grace is their own sheer ineptitude and incompetence, that for all their will to do China harm, they just haven’t got anything like the capacity to make it so. That is the only reason China has left India mostly alone, as it focused on the Americans.
But with Trump making moves in the SCS, there is growing a risk that he might use military force as a last ditch effort to save his flagging re-election bid.
I think there is very heated debating ongoing inside Beijing on how best to respond. One side would think open conflict with the Americans is almost inevitable, so China should focus all its might to counter America to the east and cannot afford a sideshow with India in the west. But I think there will be others who argue that Trump is a natural bully who only response to force. Obviously China cannot use military force against American or US allied states in the east, but India has presented itself as a perfect chicken for China to kill to scare off the American monkey.
I think this faction would argue that it is better for the PLA to absolutely curbstomp the Indians to demonstrate just how far PLA modernisation have progressed to scare off Trump than to have to use those capabilities to fight the Americans directly. That it is better to kick off a new Cold War with America than to fight a hot one.
I think Beijing has not decided which faction is right, so is hedging is bets and keeping both options open.
Personally, I think the PLA should repeat 62 and absolutely crush India, maybe even to go as far as to shatter it as a state to end the threat to the west once and for all.
As I have observed before, India is forever on the lookout for any opportunity to screw with China, that means that if Trump attacks, there is every chance India would pile in anyways. As such, there isn’t much of a downside to fighting India since they will attack anyways.
The potential benefit is that Trump is a bully and such an overwhelming display of military power and political will has a very good chance to cow him. Launching a foreign military adventure only works to boost domestic approval if you win the fight, if you loose than there is no political capital to be made, only plenty of fallout. Americans don’t care too much about made up excuses for war that kills foreigners (Iraqi WMD), but they will care if American soldiers start returning home in body bags in numbers not seen since WWII because of a bogus pretext for war.
If only the CCP worked this way. Neither side will do anything. India won't push far in fact this most likely happened on the forward positions held by China. The CCP won't do anything because if it had the desire to use this opportunity, it would have done so months ago. Its moves onto China's historic claims were the payoff (not really that important to be honest) but at least it's shown Indian leadership and military (not the bhakts) who's holding all the cards. The Indians know they won't last two hours in a war. The CCP doesn't want one else it had plenty of opportunity to open the fighting. CCP complacency is real. It's just been rather lucky in recent years.
Looks like a big clash is coming. Indian twitter is reporting that Special Frontier force made up Tibetan exiles attacked the PLA. Then Tibetan twitter says that a senior Tibetan officer of the same force died due "land mine". But could be a cover for the clash. Kashmir Ladakh road is closed to Civilian traffic. Only Army allowed.
I would really love to see this war happening. With India already under severe pressure due to covid, this is the perfect time to teach them a lesson for aggressive moves like splitting Kashmir into two parts and Indian attacks on Pakistan last year. A solid Indian humiliation by Chinese attack will be a good slap on the Modi government.
It will also be interesting to see how much PLA actually improved from all the modernizations. If China can repeat 1962 with much lesser force and time required then it will be a good indication of PLA's advancements.
I hope Chinese leadership will not backdown from this. They need to tough enough to go all the way on this. Lets see.
I would really love to see this war happening. With India already under severe pressure due to covid, this is the perfect time to teach them a lesson for aggressive moves like splitting Kashmir into two parts and Indian attacks on Pakistan last year. A solid Indian humiliation by Chinese attack will be a good slap on the Modi government.
It will also be interesting to see how much PLA actually improved from all the modernizations. If China can repeat 1962 with much lesser force and time required then it will be a good indication of PLA's advancements.
I hope Chinese leadership will not backdown from this. They need to tough enough to go all the way on this. Lets see.
In that case then you won’t have journalist coverage of the incident. We won’t know if anything happened for days.
Not with Indian media on board. They will certainly reveal all. Of course they will rearrange the truth in their favor, but the truth can be filtered out of their typical propaganda operation.
I would usually put this sort of thing down to baseless rumour-mongering, but in this case there's the interesting statement President Xi made recently about opposing separatism in Tibet. I thought it was quite out of the blue when I first read of it, but it could be related to this. Of course, it's at least as likely that these rumours were fabricated because of Xi's statement, and everything India says is false until proved otherwise. Interesting to keep an eye on this...
If PLA leadership think that by hiding their casualty number somehow they can change India's behavior or calculation, I don't know what they are smoking.
SunTzu says:
Know thy self, know thy enemy.
Are they following Sun Tzu's teaching, or living in some fantasy land?
SunTzu says:
Know thy self, know thy enemy.
Are they following Sun Tzu's teaching, or living in some fantasy land?
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Seems like they're following it pretty well by making it impossible for India to know its enemy while China knows exactly what happened on both sides partly from their own recounts and partly from Indian reporting. What should they do, taunt India by telling them they lost 20 soldiers and barely gave 2 PLA light injuries? At this point, I'm not against that either LOL.
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