Because COVID19 is a once in multiple-generations freak event; and I am not naive enough to think of Chinese National policy as purely reactionary and so principled that China is not able to take a hard nosed approach to evaluating the impact of such events to not consider all possible opportunities it presents.
As mentioned above, the lion share of the cost and risk of a military solution to the Taiwan issue would be from direct foreign military intervention and potentially from economic damage from sanctions and boycotts afterwards.
The PLA will be stronger in absolute and relative terms to better dissuade and even fight off foreign military involvement in the future yes, but the costs to China of fighting off the US in 10 years time is still going be to orders of magnitudes more than just fighting Taiwan tomorrow. In addition to the significantly less likelihood of direct US military involvement in a Taiwan takeover under the scenario described, there will almost certainly be far less economic fallout as neither the US or EU could afford to impose economic sanctions on China if they are relying on the good graces of Beijing to supply them with COVID19 vaccines.
So let's look at the situation in 10 years time as you say.
The Chinese economy is on track to grow to almost 2x the size of the USA, up from 30% larger today in PPP terms.
- So Chinese economic, trade and investment influence will presumably track such growth.
- China will also have moved up the technology ladder and replaced much of the foreign technology imports it relies on today.
- Chinese military spending in the past was very modest, because of the smaller size of the Chinese economy. But in 10 years time, the stock of advanced Chinese weapons will be a bare minimum of 10x larger than today, and probably a lot higher. In comparison, the US stock will remain roughly the same. Look up the numbers for yourself and do an analysis.
When you look at that growth, China can almost certainly take Taiwan fairly easily and at low cost in 10 years time, irrespective of anything the US or Taiwan can do.
So will the USA decide to go to war against China, if the US knows that it will certainly lose anyway?
There are always at least two sides to each calculation when it comes to game theory - your own strengths and motivations, and your opponents. The best outcome you can reach is usually achieved when making your move when the relative difference between the two sides is most in your favour, so you cannot simply only look at how your own power and motivational curves develops, but also need to be mindful of how your opponent’s change as well.
Going by current trends, it seems likely American hostility towards China will be far more entrenched and deep rooted at all levels of government and society in 10 years’ time give the great power competition at play and how China is increasingly catching up and exceeding America. As such, even though both the absolute power of the PLA will be much stronger, and the relative power different between the PLA and the US military will be much smaller in 10 years time, the likelihood that America will commit to direct military action may actually also be higher given that will probably be their last and only chance to decisively change the course China is on to comprehensively overtake America
Yes, there are always multiple sides to the equation, which I've already considered.
I agree that the next 10 years will be a time of entrenched great power competition between China and the USA.
But afterwards, China can demonstrate a huge margin of superiority in terms of economic and military power over the USA in the Western Pacific. That will lead to East Asia nations aligning with China, or remaining neutral in a China-US competition, which is good enough.
There simply will be less reason for the USA to be involved in the Western Pacific, as the US has to accept a lesser role and the US-China relationship will become better.
---
So your argument is that the USA needs to stop China now, before all this happens.
Fair enough.
So why does China need move on Taiwan now as you say, and give the US military a reason to go to war against China?
Remember the Coronavirus is actually not very deadly to healthy young adults who comprise the US military.
Plus China losing Taiwan doesn't actually change the trajectory of Chinese growth in economic or military terms, as this will be determined by the already huge domestic Chinese market, which will be served by rapidly-improving Chinese technology companies.
Anyway, back on topic.
