Ladakh Flash Point
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its more about nationalism, just like iphone sell drop in china and huawei phone sell raise. Though not sure how long that nationalism will last. but worst case is facebook/google etc establish a strong hold in the country, then its hard for ppl to switch back. Just like facebook own app can't compete with tiktok in US. People already used to it
There's a decent chance US will ban Tiktok.
Tiktok was banned once in India before, they should've prepared for another ban. If the management can't anticipate geopolitical troubles, the the company needs to change its management.
Well the problem is we don’t know how the ‘bans’/boycotts will happen, we are only looking at the beginning and they went so far as to destroy their own property in order to support the boycott. Also the customs are making things difficult as well. These are actions that we can use a benchmark as to how far they will/can go. Whilst a lot of normal people may not subscribe to it, the hardcore lot seems to want to take it to the extreme.
The longer the stand off continue the more extreme this can get... so it’s difficult to say. As for other companies... well in software it takes a while for adoption and it also take capital, it’s not like it’s an overnight thing, so in the short - mid term it would do a lot of harm, and have longer term consequences. Investors will also be wary about ROI when investing in such a market, and will likely limit investments until proven otherwise. With their economy is such a state, in the short term, investment might be very limited, which will further delay recovery.
They may not be able to ban the apps completely but I doubt the app companies will put anymore money into supporting the services for the apps locally. Mostly likely they will reduce to minimal levels costing either existing jobs or potential new jobs.
I do expect the Chinese to retaliate in the coming weeks, either through WTO, tariffs, or administrative sanctions against India MNCs like Tata. Bollywood could also lose their share of the Chinese market when it is just about to take off in the latter.
facebook/google etc already have some market share, just can't compete with some chinese apps. one of my friend work at google & yahoo before, he did mention india is one of their growth area. So if india really dead set on banning the apps, it will open door to other company from different country. as for manufacture/heavy industry and other goods etc, india is still rely on china, so they gonna hurt themself if they make those trading more difficult. india goverment probably will select certain goods(ie tiktok etc) to ban, that have less impact on their economy or find alternative western products. its not gonna be like business as usual after the border tension for sure. worst case is india grow too close to US.
Sure Facebook and Google have a presences, I would assume that they can’t compete because of the incentives the Chinese app companies were offering, that would probably apply to other companies too. These incentives would ultimately be beneficial to the users of the apps, without the aggressive competition I doubt Facebook/google as well as others, would be as willing to offer a better deal.
Also it will depend on whether the numbers of people these other companies will be willing hire, would be enough to replace the potential lost of jobs from the companies of the banned apps. Western software company tend to use less people and rely more on algorithms, whereas Chinese companies have a tendency to use larger number of people, it used to apply to software companies in China too but I am not entirely certain about it nowadays. It may not be catastrophic but can have a bad knock on effect should it be prolonged.
As for manufacturing equipment the same applies, there is a reason why Chinese equipment is used, it may price out SMEs if they have to use western equipment which isn’t good for the economy in general, there was a reason why there was concern in the US regarding the huawei ban, some placing simply could afford the more expensive network equipment, if this can happen in the US, imagine the same in India. There is also competition to think about, no cheap equipment then there is less incentives for the remaining companies slash prices to attract customers, even with discounts it would likely not be cheaper than China made.
Regarding India growing closer to US, they were already doing that so not really going to change, it would more likely have a negative effect in the short term. Pissing off Russia whilst the US can’t completely ‘trust’ them yet.
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plawolf
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This app boycott, like most Indian moves, is ham fisted, premature and vastly overestimate India’s relevance.
What is the goal of boycotts? To force the other side to change course through economic pressure, and/or inflict punitive economic damage on the other side to set them back.
India’s consumer base is still so small as to be effectively irrelevant in terms of the impact this ban will have on Chinese companies.
What more, Chinese investment in India is still minuscule and again, irrelevant in the broad scheme of things.
Other than symbolic, this ban does almost no material damage, thereby defeating the whole purpose of a boycott. This would be like you personally boycotting your local supermarket. It does nothing noticeable to the supermarket but greatly inconveniences you.
What else it does do is put India on the black lists of all Chinese companies due to political interference and instability.
Who wants to invest millions or billions when they know that the host country to institute bans or even asset seiners at a whim?
India needs Chinese capital far more than China needs the Indian market.
What matters in the economic world is the size of the market in monetary terms, not the headcount of people who cannot afford to buy what you are selling.
What is the goal of boycotts? To force the other side to change course through economic pressure, and/or inflict punitive economic damage on the other side to set them back.
India’s consumer base is still so small as to be effectively irrelevant in terms of the impact this ban will have on Chinese companies.
What more, Chinese investment in India is still minuscule and again, irrelevant in the broad scheme of things.
Other than symbolic, this ban does almost no material damage, thereby defeating the whole purpose of a boycott. This would be like you personally boycotting your local supermarket. It does nothing noticeable to the supermarket but greatly inconveniences you.
What else it does do is put India on the black lists of all Chinese companies due to political interference and instability.
Who wants to invest millions or billions when they know that the host country to institute bans or even asset seiners at a whim?
India needs Chinese capital far more than China needs the Indian market.
What matters in the economic world is the size of the market in monetary terms, not the headcount of people who cannot afford to buy what you are selling.
In 1979, you have to remember that Vietnam's geopolitical situation was far worse, in comparison to India today.
Vietnam was allied with a distant USSR, but faced China on borders.
Along with a hostile defacto China-US-Asia alliance working against the USSR/Vietnam.
The continental USA is secure, because it only has 2 small weak countries as neighbours.
That means the USA has spare resources for power projection elsewhere.
And in the Americas, only Brazil has the population to mount a realistic challenge to US regional hegemony.
But it is Brazil's internal failings that prevent it from escaping the middle-income trap.
From China's perspective, it would be great if Brazil was developed.
It has 2/3 of the US population, so you could expect an economy 2/3 the size as well, with all that this implies in terms of competition with the USA. But this hasn't happened to due to Brazil's own performance.
You advocate sabotaging India, but there is nothing more destructive that the idea that another country deliberately aiming to keep you poor.
Just look at how the average Chinese person now believes that the USA will stop at nothing to keep China poor.
No it can't. It can project power else where because the other countries are concerned about their own problem rather than hitting them back. Of course hitting them back would require economy & military capability too.
Anyone who has lived through nightmare of wars, which we are pretty familiar given this entire region has gone through that, And familiar
with US's history, how it came to be, should know where the fault line with US lies.
As the corona virus & BLM protests shows, US never solved the very basic of problems. Same country which claims to be value champ.
Second world war gave US the perfect cover up for their history, after that every country focused to grow from zero. US became a "super power" because there was no other power left. So no one talked about it anymore. But US never really could galvanize those fault lines
To expose those fault lines, you don't really need to go to US or close to it, all you need to do is breathing down on it's neck. It needs pretty big space to feel safe.
I have several time mentioned before, China should extensively look into Hawaii, Guam & SPECIALLY south american countries.
With US, and it's utopian value loving population, how long do you think it will survive with out USD being the reserve currency? In a country where people get paid for making adult movies, doing cam shows? I am predicting 10 years, at best.
Do you know what happens when rich dad stops giving his spoilt son everything? He turns onto his own dad. That's the thing US fears most, so it needs to keep it's spoilt population "happy" by keeping the trouble as far as away from it's mainland.
If a single George floyd can do this to the wannabe Disneyland, can you imagine what can happen if another kent state saga takes place?
US is a gigantic robot standing on murky water, you don't need to target the robot.
I have been watching China's response to different US's accusation as US is trying to be value champ after miserable corona-virus failure. China still can't let go of the habit of taking down lying. US wants you on defensive. They don't like it when someone points finger at them, they get insecure. To cover that up, they try to project power.
I am not asking to start a war. But china should go extensive length in information warfare . Current generation is very sensitive to "invasion" histories. China should start talking about How native people of North America became white, how Great Abraham Lincoln "freed" the slaves from south, however he forgot that "Freeing" slaves doesn't guarantee property rights, as they invaded & occupied south, Hawaii, Guam, how US military was innocently testing chemical weapon on Los Angeles & i didn't even set foot in modern history yet.
You need to target them where they are most sensitive. I have been playing Americans with these, its funny how notoriously they react to it. For exaple, just yesterday in a forum they were talking about the "china virus" & making china pay. I just asked them when they are going to pay for the "American swine". Rest was history.
The US is far more paranoid than it chooses to show, specially about it's history.They are going to poke you as long as you don't slap them back in their place. For that, you neither require economy, nor military. Only history lessons.
People in US of A have been trying to desperately hang to to their utopian values. Well i don't really care about their values or what they choose to do with it. I am more interested in the land, as i am "very very concerned" about the human rights of native peoples as much as i am "very very concerned" about "Texas invasion". You should learn how to use history & words to your advantage.
What China should show to the world is, The U.S is not of A. It never was. It never had anything to do with America,no matter how much they try to be "American".
You would be surprised how word games can impact people & their view.
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