Ladakh Flash Point

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Xizor

Xizor

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twineedle said:
Did you read the article? It clearly references China's perceived LAC, not claim line. Keep in mind this is from Snehesh Alex Phillip, one of the most reliable defence journalists in India. The Print is also a balanced source.
Indian army officials generally have a decent idea of what China perceives its lac to be based on PLA patrolling patterns and intereactions with between local commanders, though the exact extent of China's full claims have not been shared with regards to the Eastern Sector. However, we know China does not even recognize Ladakh as India, which gives a hint as to how much they claim.
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He is reliable? Print is balanced?

Not to a foreign observer.

There is nothing in that article that states as to the actual LAC of China. The "perceived LAC" is soon followed with the phrase "Claim Lines". A clear distinction between the two is therefore not made there.

To put it simply -
If China reaches Burtze, wouldn't its Claims be satisfied? Anything beyond Burtze is the DBO road.
 
Xizor

Xizor

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twineedle said:
Both sides vacated South Pangong, which included Black Top and Helmet Top.
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And India vacated entirety of Kailash range positions.

In North Pangong Tso -
For China, Road to F4 from F8 still remain. India still can't thrust beyond F2/3 during an escalation.
 
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twineedle

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Xsizor said:
And India vacated entirety of Kailash range positions.

In North Pangong Tso -
For China, Road to F4 from F8 still remain. India still can't thrust beyond F2/3 during an escalation.
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Both sides completely vacated Kailash range. Not sure about the Chinese side, but the Indian side was unoccupied since 1962(hence why there were still active mines there). It was occupied for the sole purpose of achieving disengagement on the north side.
And the agreement prevents China from patrolling up to and beyond finger 4.
 
Xizor

Xizor

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I have to make an observation or nuance here -
India can " thrust" beyond F2/3 but there is a lack of road that means moving equipments beyond F2/3 is tricky.
twineedle said:
Both sides completely vacated Kailash range. Not sure about the Chinese side, but the Indian side was unoccupied since 1962(hence why there were still active mines there). It was occupied for the sole purpose of achieving disengagement on the north side.
And the agreement prevents China from patrolling up to and beyond finger 4.
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India has been similarly limited from patrolling till F8. They used to Patrol by foot (because past F2/3 there was no proper transportation infrastructure).
 
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twineedle

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Xsizor said:
I have to make an observation or nuance here -
India can " thrust" beyond F2/3 but there is a lack of road that means moving equipments beyond F2/3 is tricky.
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Exactly. If you zoom into finger 3/4 on google earth, you will notice the western side has almost no flat land and is not conducive to building permanent roads for vehicular traffic. Unlike the Eastern side of Finger 4, known as foxhole, which is basically flat beaches. Which is why there is no road connectivity between the two, and finger 4 forms a de facto geographic boundary between Indian army and pla, even though both sides have differeing perceptions and claims beyond it. Indian troops can patrl on foot but not on vehicle which gives the advantage to PLA. similar to the issue with the bottleneck at Depsang. That was the situation at Pangong for decades. Colonel Dinny explained that in his interview very well.
 
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ougoah

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I guarantee India will refuse to allow the entire disputed area to become a disengaged buffer. Pangong lake to them was just too high profile and the attention of Modi and IA failure required immediate simmering so that agreement to not step beyond F3 so that PLA could disengage was quickly done and then quickly marketed to the halfwits as PLA retreeeeeted! The IA and Indian gov will not allow such a course of action from Depsang to Gogra & Hot Springs. Kailash they never truly held not even helmet and black top. Even at India's most forward positions that were sustained, they kept on their side of the most westerly interpretation of LAC - Indian side of black and helmet top peaks.

Depsang to Gogra is also relatively high profile and no way the opposition would allow Modi to even hint at agreeing to similar terms as Pangong PLA disengagement. It also gives them access to the entirety of their claims which China's been controlling since 1962. What both sides can and probably will do is settle the southern one into a buffer (at best for China) just like with Pangong, and leave the standoff on the north of lake ongoing but relatively stable with firm ROE.

I bet much of the negotiations was to establish very FIRM rules of engagement to avoid accidental escalations from command perspective and it also creates a mutual understanding of what each is able to do. China almost definitely forced this so that if there is any more violence that erupts, there would be far more accountability ... on both sides as well. The Indians will be able to hold PLA accountable if PLA does something outside of ROE. Give enough time, one or both sides will start to game these new rules.

India I suspect may want to plan some escalations. At least they're staying within the north of lake areas. China will continue maintaining those positions within as well at least until Indians disengage. An Indian revisit of their old plan to take Kailash in an effort to improve negotiation position means PLA needs to assume they are planning it. It could well be India's one step back before two steps forwards if PLA lets its guard down in the south and even Pangong depending how the talks and agreements detailed the disengagement.
 
Mohsin77

Mohsin77

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jfy1155 said:
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That's a good operational assessment by the Lt. General. However, it leaves many strategic questions unanswered, perhaps knowingly. He strongly hints at it though:

"Let me reiterate that Depsang Plains and Gogra-Hot Springs continue to be our critical vulnerabilities and the Chinese have no intent to withdraw from there. The withdrawal from the North and South bank of Pangong Tso was a “stand-alone agreement” with no commitments from China to disengage from other sectors. Note the alleged contemptuous quote attributed to the Chinese in the recent talks — India 'should be happy with what has been achieved.'"

This is a very ominous quote. It was obvious from the start, as analysts like Sawhney pointed out very early, that the true goal of the PLA was not simply to secure any particular claim line. General Panag also confirms this indirectly, when he states that there are areas where the PLA went beyond its claim line, while others which it could've taken last year but didn't, when it had complete surprise and "overwhelming" superiority of several Mech Divisions. This confirms that the these are just the PLA's positioning moves. If the CCP ordered this action, it means they've decided to prepare the ground for something else, sometime in the future. It could be a warning, in which case the Indian leadership has been clearly told (privately) what the red line is. What should truly worry the Indian leadership though, is if a 'red line' has not been clearly communicated to them. Because in that case, this is not a warning at all, it's a preamble, and China is hiding the trigger conditions to maintain strategic surprise.
 
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