Ladakh Flash Point

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Waqar Khan

Junior Member
Registered Member
Hahahahah
It doesn't matter how "detailed" Shukla is, there are no other sources corroborating his claims. Whereas Iyer clearly labeled the LAC and Chinese claims, and labeled the exact position of every Indian and Chinese position at the time. Unlike Shukla, his anlaysis has been proven correct by recent satellite imagery analysis.

The ground reality is China tried to shift the lac(dotted line) west but failed.
,even after losing 1450 sq kms in Ladakh,the Sangh brigades thinks that nothing happened,and its not me but Rahul Gandhi,who said that. even Indian army Chief in a conclave on times Now admitted that other than Pangong So lake sector,there are many areas which need negotiations..meaning that India has not been able to get back an inch
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Hahahahah

,even after losing 1450 sq kms in Ladakh,the Sangh brigades thinks that nothing happened,and its not me but Rahul Gandhi,who said that. even Indian army Chief in a conclave on times Now admitted that other than Pangong So lake sector,there are many areas which need negotiations..meaning that India has not been able to get back an inch

Well with respect to Pangong, there is total disengagement. In return for PLA vacating F4 to F8 (but seems like they will keep the road there which is okay if whole site is buffer), the Indians stay behind F3 and will not patrol the disputed area anymore. The Indians haven't gained anything. They haven't lost anything either. I think the Indian aim was to mirror China's building up and either the Indian intention was to slowly salami slice their way to capturing the remaining 20% disputed zone since China already has the 80%, or make sure the Chinese do not get the remaining 20%. From that perspective, they have neither won or lost.

China wanted Indians to stop patrolling and building up because China understands that if the Indians are allowed to develop military infrastructure behind the remaining disputed areas, they can support their frontlines better and quite comfortably overwhelm the PLA with more numbers. This would threaten Aksai Chin and force China to commit a great proportion of PLA to defend it all. So they send in PLA to occupy significant portions of the Pangong dispute but seems like the PLA hasn't really pushed beyond the blue line elsewhere. Occupying F4 to F8 to force a reversal of India strategic thinking wrt this remaining 20% - showing that China does respond to salami slicing (something China did in the past as well as the 1950 line to 1959 offer to 1960 claim and beyond show).

Since the PLA has disengaged on Pangong when India agreed to no patrolling and setting up a buffer, which makes China more comfortable with the situation but still feeling Aksai Chin is threatened because India continues to claim it and standoff is still the status quo in Demchok and a very small part of Gogra Hot Springs.

Overall I do not think India has lost anything of the disputed section (they never controlled any but do wish to and acted in accordance). PLA positions are basically still the same as the blue line except for maybe 1km in Gogrra HS and some of Demchok. Negotiations ongoing that indicate China want India to agree to similar terms as Pangong before PLA disengages but the present standoff is much less confrontational than the previous one at Pangong.

India probably is still refusing to vacate the space between LAC and line where China controls up to (China's 1960 claim line basically/general interpretation of LAC which is pink dotted line to Chinese control, blue line) because it feels entitled to the remaining 20% and if India agrees to the buffer like on Pangong, India would have come out of this 70 year long dispute without a percentage of the disputed land while China keeps 80% of it and 20% is converted into a buffer.

Therefore there is a good opportunity here for both sides to demarcate the line which may even be what is happening. Keep in mind that India would have talks with the US as part of a greater strategic plan, running options and agreements through the US and getting their advice/ instructions. If India and China can demarcate and settle the border here, India loses Aksai Chin for good. But if they do decide to talk with China and create a bilaterally agreed border, China will almost definitely allow the line to sit between LAC and blue line where China controls up to. Perhaps even up to the blue line depending on how the relationship seems to be headed. This means India loses Aksai Chin but gains something out of the dispute, whether it's the full remaining 20% or somewhere between 0% and 20%, it could be better for India and definitely better for China to settle this for good.

The question is how does the US think about this and how would India's opposition parties put political and social pressure on current government. I mean they are attacking them (often for good reason) at every single move even when there is nothing to be critical of. Another is how will China consider India's policy stability with the usual flip flopping and different parties coming to power.
 
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twineedle

Junior Member
Registered Member
Hahahahah

,even after losing 1450 sq kms in Ladakh,the Sangh brigades thinks that nothing happened,and its not me but Rahul Gandhi,who said that. even Indian army Chief in a conclave on times Now admitted that other than Pangong So lake sector,there are many areas which need negotiations..meaning that India has not been able to get back an inch
If you want to believe Rahul Gandhi over satelite imagery, which shows india has not lost an inch of land, that is your right. Even the Indian Army chief whom you quote said that. Whatever makes you feel better. If anything, India has gained land by occupying positions it has never held before.

And the lac is not as complicated as some think. The de facto lac after 1962 is clearly demarcated on google. That lac has never shifted and still stands. Both sides' claims are also shown on multiple sources.
 

davidau

Senior Member
Registered Member
If you want to believe Rahul Gandhi over satelite imagery, which shows india has not lost an inch of land, that is your right. Even the Indian Army chief whom you quote said that. Whatever makes you feel better. If anything, India has gained land by occupying positions it has never held before.

And the lac is not as complicated as some think. The de facto lac after 1962 is clearly demarcated on google. That lac has never shifted and still stands. Both sides' claims are also shown on multiple sources.
No disputes any more between China and India?
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Multiple wrong assumptions and one-sided storytelling, but yeah, neither India nor China is completely innocent or honest.
To counter a few -


If not unilateral, then why bring 10,000+ troops, tanks and armor in Ladakh? Measly Indian patrols consisting of no more than 50 troops can be countered by local outpost strength.
Chinese deployment forced us to mobilize a proportionate number of troops and armor.

Why is PLA bringing more troops strange? Keep in mind this is during and after stand off initiated. India has much more that 10,000+ very close to this region.

It's pretty clear that Indian and Chinese patrols clash whenever one side decides to conduct patrols of the remaining disputed sections. I suspect it is in at least China's interest that these clashes end, if not also India's seeing as these clashes have the potential of getting out of hand. If there is no chance that either side can contact because the entire disputed area becomes a buffer, there is no potential for violence and accidental or intentional confrontation. However either side suspects the other, this is objectively going to be good in respect to de-escalating the situation.

I would say that Indian deployment forced China to mobilise and support with more troops and equipment. Of course it can also be said that Indian build up was also in response to China's building a road on dispute but China worries that it was also done in the hopes of securing the disputed area and eventually controlling it.

Well China declares the whole Arunachal Pradesh (Indian State, under our control since 1947, no Chinese influence), multiple sectors of Himachal Pradesh (again under our control, natives are Indians with no han-feature or culture) and Ladakh (again our culture and heritage) as "disputed".
No "actual Indian territory" ? Who defines that? Chinese govt ?


PLA did retreat because IA had then good in South Pangong Tso, and also Galwan. Other sectors, PLA do have an advantage (currently), so why would they retreat from those sectors?

PLA "retreated" under command of China not India and they didn't retreat because they were pushed out or defeated. Clearly not since they stayed the whole time. They retreated after India agreed it would also retreat and stay behind F3. The whole point PLA occupied F4 to F8 was to let India know it needs to stop with military plans and to force India to agree to not stepping beyond F3 anymore. This means no more contact and no chance for violence. Once the objectives were achieved, PLA could disengage in return for India acting according to those agreements which they did. If China's aim was to capture that F4 to F8 territory, they held it for nearly a year. Why would they negotiate if the aim was to capture? Why talk with India about agreements? They already won.

IA had good in south and galwan? Well not really. IA was on India's side of Black Top and Helmet Top. It is very commonly shared fake news from India that India captured Chinese territory in the south for exchange. India intruded in for a whole week or so and they left. The most further east position they had after that was sitting well on India's own side of Black Top and Helmet Top.

PLA doesn't have advantage in any sector. Gogra HS is a claim from China. It is probably only being held to force India into agreeing to vacate disputed land. There is nothing more to this. PLA will disengage just like on Pangong once India agrees to certain terms just like on Pangong. The delay is possibly because India misinterpreted PLA and Chinese intentions and assumed Pangong disengagement would include all PLA forward positions to act accordingly in exchange for India moving back to F3 and agreeing to buffer - not patrolling F3 to F8.

PLA has no advantage because India is within disputed land. If India refuses to vacate disputed land, China has to stay otherwise India more easily control the remaining stuff.

If India vacates, PLA is probably going to vacate. I believe this because Pangong sets the precedent and there is little real reason for China to act differently with regards to the rest of the dispute and standoff.

There is a Indian proverb that translates to, "The one who have stick, controls the buffalo", and in LAC term, it translates to, the one who have power, controls the "disputed" territory.
So, either side bargaining for 20% or 100%, has to show resolve and power. Unfortunately, neither side enjoys absolute supremacy and guarantee of victory.

I think China wanted to demonstrate that India's movements and build up will be met with responses - PLA occupying F4 to F8 in order to force a rethink from Indian side. The remaining 20% on Ladakh that's been disputed since the end of the 1962 war, needs to be demarcated. China wants this more than India simply because demarcating the line means India loses Aksai Chin for good and India probably will lose a bit more of it's claim within the 20% because there is little chance China will agree to the line being the blue line. China will most likely allow it to be set between the LAC and the blue line where China actually control up to. Maybe even up to the blue line only if it sees India China relations becoming positive and as a show of goodwill. Otherwise either LAC or somewhere between LAC and blue line.


Regarding creating a buffer territory, China is steadily encroaching and pushing the "buffer" or "no-man's land" towards Indian side since last 60 years. So if China really wants peace and safety for Aksai Chin or Tibet, they should negotiate a treaty with India converting LAC into demarcated international boundary, rather than playing property dispute wars, and especially not provoke a military conflict by bringing thousands of troops.

Yes China wants this. India does not!

Think about it. India wants Aksai Chin and continues to formally claim it. While AC is controlled by China, India still wants it.

If India demarcated the line, they lose Aksai Chin. Therefore India does not want to demarcate... while it is China that does because demarcating with bilateral agreement, means China improves the security of Aksai Chin and its sovereignty. Bringing thousands of troops when it looks like India might attack is normal behaviour. In fact I'm surprised PLA brought so little. Most of India's military is on the northern side. This area is on the edge of China. Of course China will re-enforce the PLA there when the tensions started rising. You can't call this China being aggressive when there are 1,000,000 Indian troops nearby and tens of thousands at Ladakh while China interpreted the situation as India wanting to salami slice the remaining 20% and control what it can get.
 
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Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
But you did attack our troops at Galwan, invade territory controlled by India (if that comes under you definition of disputed land). But did we do the opposite?
Don't try
to erase the gravity and hostile intent under the context of blurred definitions.
Can you definitely prove that China was the instigator to this conflict?

Think for yourself -
Who has got more to lose in this conflict?
What was the situation that existed prior to the conflict?

There was the trade war, slowing Chinese gdp growth, coronavirus pandemic etc and you think it is China who instigated the conflict by attacking India?

Meanwhile, India, at that time, had the Trump administration in US ready for any kind of support, had the possibility of Quad alliance and a stake in the trade war - lots to gain from it.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
So summing up overall,
  • China mounted an offensive seeing an opportunity during the pandemic, knowing well enough that we will be weak due to COVID outbreak. This also made sure that USA, themselves being ravaged by pandemic, won't have enough spare power to help us.
China mounted an offensive? Yeah, after India instigated all of this with a cowardly ambush on Chinese negotiators in Galwan (which they somehow still lost). After this, China can do anything and it is still India instigating.

It's sad and pathetic that you even mentioned the COVID biolab theory or foreign help. (By the way, there is also a rumor that is at least as credible as the one of the Chinese biolab, that COVID originated in Fort Detrick, a US biolab. However, rational people believe neither.) The USA wouldn't dare help you in any conflict with China COVID or not; that's not how they use pawns. The Chinese government is decisive and efficient and the Chinese citizens are disciplined; that's why China got COVID under control so quickly. The US had the warning from China and then had a second round of warning seeing the situation in Europe; the CIA and CDC even presented documents to the POTUS to tell him that the threat to the US is grave and dire. Trump refused to believe it and told all Americans that there were 15 cases of COVID in the US, will soon be zero, and that it will magically go away in April. Even when American cases surged to the top of the world, he maintained that there was no cause for alarm and that masks are not needed. Now America has more reported COVID deaths than any other nation and there is no one at fault except American politicians themselves.
  • China tried to push us into a 2-front war scenario (we still are in that threat), knowing that our forces will be stretched thin on western and eastern front.
What? Pakistan is not involved in this and China needs no help to handle India. Pakistan already shot down India's MiG, released the pilot after he complimented their prison tea, then saw India shoot down one of their own choppers killing 7. They're done with India until India instigates another incident.
  • With trade war & confrontation with USA, China tried to establish itself as formidable power to reckon with, by militarily defeating 5th strongest nation, thus solidifying their military might to neighboring nations.
No one in the world who isn't Indian would have thought China could prove anything by beating on India. That is like Tyson proving himself by beating up David Spade. 5th strongest nation? Who? India? LOLOL I have no idea how you calculated that but you have got to be joking. India has many people, but it is not powerful. It has a military fraught with incompetence and glorification of incompetence, an economy in the heaviest decline in all of Asia from COVID, a population that is divided and torn by multiple ideologies with a leadership that has no interest in uniting them, and a capital besieged by protests. There is no glory in picking on this nation; China just wants India to leave it alone while China finishes its spurt to overtake the US. There is no other nation worthy for China to prove itself on.
 
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Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
Yes I can :)


India. We already have an unwelcomed, suicidal, nuclear-armed and trigger happy enemy on our western front who actively keeps sending terrorist & support insurgency in India. We are already engaged in western-front, we surely won't want an active eastern front, that too with China.


World was reeling in COVID, a virus originating in China, rumored to have been escaped from Chinese bio-warfare research lab. As the world was going into lockdown, China somehow managed to locally control the virus, but chose not to disclose any information about the virus to the world, including misreporting and hiding facts from WHO, till it has spread to major population centers in America, Europe and Asia.

There was a doomsday forecast on India, as world considered Indian healthcare as too poor and unprepared to handle the pandemic, and it was predicted that India is going to be ravaged by it.

The whole world military power got muted, as the military barracks went into quarantine, including Indian military, which had to follow strict COVID protocols while trying to counter-deploy in Ladakh.


Chinese GDP slowdown is out-blown. So what if GDP slows down?
China will stop getting richer quicker, is that it? Unless China's GDP was contracting, this is a non-issue. In fact, during COVID, when all the countries faced a shrinking GDP growth, China's GDP increased.


It as not offensive, but a defensive measure. QUAD did not exist before May-June 2020 Chinese aggression.
Trade was going smoothly with China, and we were at good terms. We were forced to de-couple our economy and stop trade with China, as well as taking other strategic measures like getting under US & QUAD influence.

So summing up overall,
  • China mounted an offensive seeing an opportunity during the pandemic, knowing well enough that we will be weak due to COVID outbreak. This also made sure that USA, themselves being ravaged by pandemic, won't have enough spare power to help us.
  • China tried to push us into a 2-front war scenario (we still are in that threat), knowing that our forces will be stretched thin on western and eastern front.
  • With trade war & confrontation with USA, China tried to establish itself as formidable power to reckon with, by militarily defeating 5th strongest nation, thus solidifying their military might to neighboring nations.

Bold 1: You are quick to attach names to Pakistan but it hasn't engaged in anything objectively aggressive as to be called all that.

Pakistan can say and justify the same things about India.

Bold 2: Wuhan Research lab? More like what you want to believe rather than anything rooted in reality.

I say the coronavirus originated in India. See? It's simple.

Bold 3: China lapsed about one week. That's it. It supplied Who with all information about the virus including the detailed genetic map by the start of the year itself.

Again, nothing factual.

Bold 4: India announced lockdowns well before the covid started to grip the country.

Bold 5: That is a bit of a stretch. Sars virus isn't new. It may be a novel virus but it isn't a doomsday virus. Militaries won't be crippled by it.

Bold 6: You miss the point. Chinese GDP growth is an important metric for the CCP. Any negative effect to the numbers pose questions to the CCP. It signals turbulence.

Chinese GDP growth of 2.3% happened much later, well after the Galwan clash.

Bold 7: Quad existed when Trump administration came to power. Meetings or formalities aside, Quad means a quadrilateral alliance of nations that focuses on Indo-Pacific regions.
 

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
Yes I can :)
So summing up overall,
  • China mounted an offensive seeing an opportunity during the pandemic, knowing well enough that we will be weak due to COVID outbreak. This also made sure that USA, themselves being ravaged by pandemic, won't have enough spare power to help us.
  • China tried to push us into a 2-front war scenario (we still are in that threat), knowing that our forces will be stretched thin on western and eastern front.
  • With trade war & confrontation with USA, China tried to establish itself as formidable power to reckon with, by militarily defeating 5th strongest nation, thus solidifying their military might to neighboring nations.
In summary -
No, you can't :)

China doesn't initiate a conflict that it can't control. Not the PLA. Not the CCP.

Are you even aware of the time lines?
US lost the plot regarding the virus by June-August. This is after Galwan.

Pakistan was also affected by Coronavirus. How can there be a two front war with a coronavirus affected Pakistan?
This is idiotic.

The delusion is simply amusing. China doesn't need to defeat anyone to cement its power. Its whole mojo is not to fight any wars and climb the ladder of prosperity. Defeating a country like India don't give anything to China. India is also nuclear armed.

Your arguments lack any logic.
 

Waqar Khan

Junior Member
Registered Member
Well with respect to Pangong, there is total disengagement. In return for PLA vacating F4 to F8 (but seems like they will keep the road there which is okay if whole site is buffer), the Indians stay behind F3 and will not patrol the disputed area anymore. The Indians haven't gained anything. They haven't lost anything either. I think the Indian aim was to mirror China's building up and either the Indian intention was to slowly salami slice their way to capturing the remaining 20% disputed zone since China already has the 80%, or make sure the Chinese do not get the remaining 20%. From that perspective, they have neither won or lost.

China wanted Indians to stop patrolling and building up because China understands that if the Indians are allowed to develop military infrastructure behind the remaining disputed areas, they can support their frontlines better and quite comfortably overwhelm the PLA with more numbers. This would threaten Aksai Chin and force China to commit a great proportion of PLA to defend it all. So they send in PLA to occupy significant portions of the Pangong dispute but seems like the PLA hasn't really pushed beyond the blue line elsewhere. Occupying F4 to F8 to force a reversal of India strategic thinking wrt this remaining 20% - showing that China does respond to salami slicing (something China did in the past as well as the 1950 line to 1959 offer to 1960 claim and beyond show).

Since the PLA has disengaged on Pangong when India agreed to no patrolling and setting up a buffer, which makes China more comfortable with the situation but still feeling Aksai Chin is threatened because India continues to claim it and standoff is still the status quo in Demchok and a very small part of Gogra Hot Springs.

Overall I do not think India has lost anything of the disputed section (they never controlled any but do wish to and acted in accordance). PLA positions are basically still the same as the blue line except for maybe 1km in Gogrra HS and some of Demchok. Negotiations ongoing that indicate China want India to agree to similar terms as Pangong before PLA disengages but the present standoff is much less confrontational than the previous one at Pangong.

India probably is still refusing to vacate the space between LAC and line where China controls up to (China's 1960 claim line basically/general interpretation of LAC which is pink dotted line to Chinese control, blue line) because it feels entitled to the remaining 20% and if India agrees to the buffer like on Pangong, India would have come out of this 70 year long dispute without a percentage of the disputed land while China keeps 80% of it and 20% is converted into a buffer.

Therefore there is a good opportunity here for both sides to demarcate the line which may even be what is happening. Keep in mind that India would have talks with the US as part of a greater strategic plan, running options and agreements through the US and getting their advice/ instructions. If India and China can demarcate and settle the border here, India loses Aksai Chin for good. But if they do decide to talk with China and create a bilaterally agreed border, China will almost definitely allow the line to sit between LAC and blue line where China controls up to. Perhaps even up to the blue line depending on how the relationship seems to be headed. This means India loses Aksai Chin but gains something out of the dispute, whether it's the full remaining 20% or somewhere between 0% and 20%, it could be better for India and definitely better for China to settle this for good.

The question is how does the US think about this and how would India's opposition parties put political and social pressure on current government. I mean they are attacking them (often for good reason) at every single move even when there is nothing to be critical of. Another is how will China consider India's policy stability with the usual flip flopping and different parties coming to power.
The long answer to the short question Indicates that 3rd largest military in the wold has no response but some thoughts
 
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