Korea 2013... War Game or political game changer?

MwRYum

Major
As crazy as NK is, it will not attack China. Doing so means instant regime change and certain death to Kim and his cohorts.

If NK poked SK, Japan or America, the threat NK artillery poses to Seoul and other civilian population centres near the DMZ might stay their hand, China has no such limitations. In addition, in the event of war with SK and America, Kim and his family and friends might still have the last resort of escaping to China if all else fails. If its the PLA after them, there is no way anyone else would take them other than arrest them and types them.

If things boiled down to N.Korea rekindle the flame rather then an attack from US/S.Korea, China might instead march cross the border and race the US/S.Korea to Pyongyang, prop a pro-China regime to ensure the best advantage in such situation...the Kims might prefer this too, for no doubt a new regime under US/S.Korea would call for the Kims be indicted as war criminals (by technicality Koreas has been in a state of war for the last 60+ years, and death penalty not yet abolished in S.Korea, FYI), under a pro-Beijing "puppet regime" they might ended up shipped out quietly, then living comfortably in Dubai instead.

And if dictators have sense, then we won't have Falkland War, Iran-Iraq War, Invasion of Kuwait, genocide in Rwanda, a decade of civil wars in the Balkans, just to name a few "modern enough" ones...it's bad that "Kim the 3rd" paint himself to the corner now and an inevitable war is at the horizon, but in a way it isn't that bad a thing in the long run, it's time to get it over and done with really...it'd resolve a lot of lingering issues. While certainly S.Korea going to be a loser if and when there's this...improvised and busted northern brethren to tend to (remember what Germany have to go through after unification?), Japan and Taiwan might actually welcome such outcome because that'd largely taken their biggest rival out of the picture for some time at least.

Now, all the US have to do is to make that little fat kid to make the last big mistake of his life, then the Korean Peninsula will no longer be the powder keg...
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
If things boiled down to N.Korea rekindle the flame rather then an attack from US/S.Korea, China might instead march cross the border and race the US/S.Korea to Pyongyang, prop a pro-China regime to ensure the best advantage in such situation...the Kims might prefer this too, for no doubt a new regime under US/S.Korea would call for the Kims be indicted as war criminals (by technicality Koreas has been in a state of war for the last 60+ years, and death penalty not yet abolished in S.Korea, FYI), under a pro-Beijing "puppet regime" they might ended up shipped out quietly, then living comfortably in Dubai instead.

And if dictators have sense, then we won't have Falkland War, Iran-Iraq War, Invasion of Kuwait, genocide in Rwanda, a decade of civil wars in the Balkans, just to name a few "modern enough" ones...it's bad that "Kim the 3rd" paint himself to the corner now and an inevitable war is at the horizon, but in a way it isn't that bad a thing in the long run, it's time to get it over and done with really...it'd resolve a lot of lingering issues. While certainly S.Korea going to be a loser if and when there's this...improvised and busted northern brethren to tend to (remember what Germany have to go through after unification?), Japan and Taiwan might actually welcome such outcome because that'd largely taken their biggest rival out of the picture for some time at least.

Now, all the US have to do is to make that little fat kid to make the last big mistake of his life, then the Korean Peninsula will no longer be the powder keg...

I...don't follow your reasoning.

Why would chubby Kim want to invite a Chinese take over? He is the big boss man ATM, but if he screws things up so badly that the US and SK military is kicking down his door and China has to step in directly to take over as much of NK as they could that the Americans haven't over ran, there is no guarantee he would still be alive by the time the Chinese come face to face with the Americans, or that even if he survived that long, that China won't throw him to the Americans and South Koreans as the price for peace.

The US does not want to ignite this powder keg because they cannot be certain China will not fight for NK, and even if China doesn't side with NK, SK would be devastated in the opening hours of the war even without nukes going off. That will hit the global economy badly and is the last thing America needs right now.

China does not want to take over NK even if asked to because that would mean they have to develop what is still mainly a pre-industrial feudal society of millions and bring it up to modern standards. On top of that, it is unclear just how brainwashed and fanatical most of those people are. China has enough trouble with the Tibetan fanatics' cult like following of the Dalai Lama in the west, it does not want another load of brainwashed cultist to the East to deal with as well.

No one wants to start a war over NK, or else there would have been one long before now.

There are three main powers at play, China, South Korea and the US. Of the three, only SK actually want to take on the burden of pulling NK out of the stone ages, but it is stuck with the wrong ally if it ever wants to reunite with NK. China will never allow a US led take-over of NK, but US and the SK military will never allow SK to ditch America for China. Yet a reunification is impossible without China's blessing and support.

The only way the NK problem can be solved once and for all is if SK can somehow bring itself to dump America for China.
 

MwRYum

Major
The only way the NK problem can be solved once and for all is if SK can somehow bring itself to dump America for China.

Or, if by some great wisdom the Obama Administration cut a deal Beijing can in no way refuse...but that's just as unlikely, right? For Seoul to change its "godfather" is just unthinkable, after all.

The truth is, China is now largely forced to live with the kind of BS Pyongyang makes and mop the floor after the Kims, an annoying yet necessary price to pay for the geopolitical buffer zone that N.Korea provides. But until the US can offer China an alternative / "exit" to this, Beijing have no choice but to keep this up, much to their annoyance.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Or, if by some great wisdom the Obama Administration cut a deal Beijing can in no way refuse...but that's just as unlikely, right? For Seoul to change its "godfather" is just unthinkable, after all.

The truth is, China is now largely forced to live with the kind of BS Pyongyang makes and mop the floor after the Kims, an annoying yet necessary price to pay for the geopolitical buffer zone that N.Korea provides. But until the US can offer China an alternative / "exit" to this, Beijing have no choice but to keep this up, much to their annoyance.

What kind of deal might that be? The only thing that might tempt China to give up NK would be for SK and the new reunite Korea to be firmly on China's side, and that is just not something the Americans will ever offer up.

I agree that there is increased annoyance and resentment in Beijing at all of NK's antics and the diplomatic price China is having to pay to clean up NK's mess. That is why China co-sponsored the UN resolution condemning NK, and also why China is starting to squeeze of the grey and black market across the Yalu that helps keep NK regime alive.

Instead of getting a hint and keeping their head down, NK seems to have gone the other way, and I cannot help but wonder if all this shrill crying is as much for China's benefit as it is for America and South Korea's.
 

MwRYum

Major
What kind of deal might that be? The only thing that might tempt China to give up NK would be for SK and the new reunite Korea to be firmly on China's side, and that is just not something the Americans will ever offer up.
Exactly, if US gonna offer anything it'd have to be something else, the US would never trade away its foothold on the continental Asia. But what else the US could offer that's not as juicy, but equally tempting? The thing is, though, even if they did make any deal of sort, we the public would not know until after Pyongyang is nothing more than a smoking crater.

I agree that there is increased annoyance and resentment in Beijing at all of NK's antics and the diplomatic price China is having to pay to clean up NK's mess. That is why China co-sponsored the UN resolution condemning NK, and also why China is starting to squeeze of the grey and black market across the Yalu that helps keep NK regime alive.

Instead of getting a hint and keeping their head down, NK seems to have gone the other way, and I cannot help but wonder if all this shrill crying is as much for China's benefit as it is for America and South Korea's.

You do know dictators are also gamblers, and a "game of chicken" is also gambling in essence, now it's Kim the 3rd who keep raising the stakes but soon he gotta show his cards, or when his banker (Beijing) gonna cap his credit limit...hopefully not for long.
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
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South Koreans leave joint factory park as North warns embassies on safety
Published April 06, 2013
| FoxNews.com
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PAJU, South Korea – More South Koreans on Saturday began to leave North Korea and the factory park where they work, four days after Pyongyang closed the border to people and goods.
Twenty-one South Koreans returned from the Kaesong industrial park Saturday morning, and about 100 of the roughly 600 still there were expected to return home by day's end, the Unification Ministry in Seoul said.
One manager, Han Nam-il, interviewed as he left, said he saw North Korean security officials "fully armed" before he crossed the border.
The industrial park is the last remnant of North-South cooperation. Pyongyang's blocking of traffic there is among many provocative moves it has made recently in anger over U.N. sanctions for its Feb. 12 nuclear test and current U.S.-South Korean military drills.
Meanwhile, the communist dictatorship deployed mid-range missile launchers to its east coast and reportedly warned foreign embassies Friday it cannot guarantee the safety of diplomats after April 10, according to a Reuters report.
Earlier in the week, North Korea said it would restart a plutonium reactor closed in 2007 and use it to make fuel for nuclear bombs.
The United Kingdom foreign office confirmed in a statement Friday that North Korea asked a number of foreign embassies in Pyongyang to consider moving staff out since they could not assure their safety in the event of conflict.
"We are consulting international partners about these developments. No decisions have been taken, and we have no immediate plans to withdraw our Embassy,” the UK foreign office statement said.
Under the Vienna Convention that governs diplomatic missions, host governments are required to assist in the evacuation of embassy staff from the country in the event of conflict.
North Korea has railed for weeks against joint U.S. and South Korean military exercises taking place in South Korea and has expressed anger over tightened sanctions for a February nuclear test.
"The current question was not whether, but when a war would break out on the peninsula," because of the "increasing threat from the United States", China's state news agency Xinhua quoted the North's Foreign Ministry as saying, according to a Reuters report.
U.S. National Security Council spokesperson Caitlin Hayden has called North Korea's threats "unhelpful and unconstructive."
"It is yet another offering in a long line of provocative statements that only serve to further isolate North Korea from the rest of the international community and undermine its goal of economic development," she said. "North Korea should stop its provocative threats and instead concentrate on abiding by its international obligations."
North Korea said last week it had entered a "state of war" with South Korea, but officials in Seoul say they have seen no preparations for a full-scale attack while the chance of a localized conflict remains. Earlier Pyongyang threatened a nuclear attack on the United States.
North Korea has not forced South Korean workers to leave Kaesong, but some of the South Korean companies working there are running out of raw materials because goods are being blocked at the border as well.
Sung Hyun-sang, head of an apparel manufacturer that employs 1,400 North Korean workers, said Friday that his factory will be "in real trouble" if supplies aren't sent to his factory in Kaesong in a week or two.
North Korea is threatening to "wither the Kaesong industrial complex to death" rather than taking South Korean managers hostage, which would spark an overwhelming international outcry, Chang Yong-seok at the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies at Seoul National University said.
But the North Korea analyst said tension at Kaesong is likely to tone down once the U.S. and South Korea wrap up their annual drills at the end of this month. The allies say the exercises in South Korea are routine, but the North calls them rehearsals for an invasion and says it needs nuclear weapons to defend itself.
Fox News' Justin Fishel, Reuters and the Associated Press contributed to this report.


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6 April 2013 Last updated at 12:48 ET BBC
North Korea: Embassies stay despite security warning
Foreign embassies in the North Korean capital Pyongyang have played down warnings from Kim Jong-un's government over their safety.
On Friday North Korea warned it would not be able to guarantee the safety of embassy staff in the event of a war.
The UK Foreign Office, which has an embassy in Pyongyang, described the warning as "continuing rhetoric".
US and South Korean officials have sought to play down fears of a conflict on the Korean peninsula in recent days.
No foreign embassies have announced plans to evacuate, and the UK and Russian embassies have said they have no immediate plans to shut their embassies.
The UK has maintained a diplomatic presence in North Korea since 2001, led by Michael Gifford, the current UK ambassador.
China urges dialogue
Meanwhile China, traditionally a North Korean ally, has reportedly urged dialogue between North Korea and the international community.
On Saturday Chinese media reported telephone discussions between the Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, and UN secretary general Ban Ki-Moon.
The talks stressed that dialogue was the only way forward and that "China would not allow any trouble at its door step".
John Kerry, the US secretary of state, is due to visit China in the coming week, along with South Korea and Japan, where talks are expected to focus on North Korea's nuclear programme and escalating threats against the US and its allies.
US officials have said they would not be surprised if North Korea launched a missile, and are moving a missile defence system to its Pacific island territory of Guam.
But they has also played down fears of an all-out conflict on the Korean peninsula.
North Korea has issued a series of unusually strong threats since it was sanctioned by the UN in March for having carried out a third nuclear test.
It has threatened nuclear strikes on the US, formally declared war on the South, and pledged to reopen a nuclear reactor in defiance of UN Security Council resolutions.
The movement of missiles within North Korea has sparked concern, but it is not clear how well developed its missile technology is.
North Korea has not taken direct military action since 2010, when it shelled a South Korean island and killed four people.

5 April 2013 Last updated at 06:56 ET
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Northern threats fail to impress Seoul residents
By Lucy Williamson
BBC News, Seoul
Here in South Korea it can sometimes feel as if there are two separate nations at the moment.
The news bulletins are full of the latest North Korean threats, the papers carry front-page pictures of the military hardware being paraded on both sides of the peninsula, and South Korea's own politicians are warning of a swift and strong response to any provocation.
But down on the streets of Seoul, life continues as normal.
Shops are full; taxi drivers hum their favourite karaoke classics; and the streets are packed with people out enjoying the sunny spring weather.
But with their own defence ministry saying North Korea is moving an medium-range missile towards the east coast, why is there not more of a sense of crisis?
"It seems that some South Koreans are numb to the security threat," one woman told me, "but Kim Jong-un is a new leader and in my view he's probably doing this to gain bargaining chips for future negotiations."
Another said it was just a matter of "security fatigue" here after so many years of living with their unpredictable neighbour: "There have been so many verbal provocations over the years.
"This isn't the first time. That's why people are calm."
But the current war of words has been unusually long, and unusually shrill. I asked one woman in her early thirties whether she was scared.
"Not really," she said. "I've never felt any fear, because the North Koreans haven't really done anything yet - except for verbal threats. I'm not really scared at all."
"I think the North Koreans would have to fire something" her friend said. "Without any South Korean casualties, I don't think South Koreans will feel threatened."
But the North does sometimes puncture that protective shell.
In the past few years, Pyongyang has been blamed for two attacks resulting in the deaths of 50 South Koreans, including two civilians.
If something similar happens again, the mood here could change very quickly.

April 5, 2013
South Koreans at North’s Edge Cope With Threat of War
By MARTIN FACKLER
MUNSAN, South Korea — As Lee Jae-eun retrieved her squirming twins from day care and loaded them into a two-seat stroller, she barely glanced up at the olive green Blackhawk helicopter that swept overhead, just above the high-rise apartment buildings.

Even in peaceful times, low-flying military aircraft are a common sight in this residential community near the heavily fortified border that separates capitalist South Korea from the communist North. But these are not placid times, and the roaring helicopters are one more reminder of rising tensions wrought by North Korea’s recent barrage of war threats.

Still, said Ms. Lee, a 34-year-old homemaker, residents have resigned themselves to living with the constant risk, and occasional tantrums, from their bellicose northern neighbor.

“Sure, our radar is up to new danger,” she said, holding one of her year-old daughters and surrounded by other mothers picking up their children. “But living here makes you used to it. It’s not such a big deal.”

In recent weeks, the heavily armed North’s cherub-faced young leader, Kim Jong-un, has threatened South Korea and the United States with nuclear attack, declaring that a “state of war” exists on the Korean Peninsula. Refusing to be cowed, South Korea’s newly elected president, Park Geun-hye, the democratic nation’s first female leader, responded by ordering her generals to strike back if provoked.

Despite the steady drumbeat of war talk, life seems to go on as usual in most of South Korea, the industrial powerhouse that lifted itself from the ashes of the 1950-53 Korean War to become one of Asia’s economic success stories. Nowhere is the determination to hold on to the South’s hard-won middle-class living standards more apparent than in Munsan, a distant suburb of the South Korean capital of Seoul that sits on the edge of the tense border: the demilitarized zone, or DMZ, which lies where the fighting stopped 60 years ago.

Once a collection of farming villages known for their local delicacy of tasty eel, Munsan was transformed into a boomtown of tall white apartment buildings and neon-lighted shops a decade ago during an era of political rapprochement with the North and soaring property prices in the fast-growing South. More recently, development has slowed after the global financial crisis hurt the South’s export-driven economy and new tensions with the North have scared away some prospective buyers.

Some of the 47,000 residents who live here now say they have learned to accept the helicopters’ near-constant rattling of their windows, and the columns of tanks that sometimes block roads during training exercises, making their children late for school. They say they have also learned how to ignore the rows of concrete bunkers and guard towers along the highway they use every morning to commute to Seoul, 35 miles to the south.

They just tune out the dangers and focus on enjoying their daily lives.

“Korea is the most dangerous place in the world, but we are numb to it,” said Song Hyun-young, an employee in the real estate department of Paju city hall, which has jurisdiction over the town of Munsan. “If something happens, we will all die together, so I don’t really think about it.”

When pressed, many residents admit to feeling anxiety about the intensity of the North’s most recent threats, and the fact that its nuclear arsenal is controlled by an untested, unpredictable leader. Some also partly blame their own country for imposing sanctions on the North, a closed and impoverished country.

“To be honest, the talk of nuclear attack is much scarier this time,” said Ms. Lee, the mother of the twins. “I think North Korea is cornered, and anyone who is cornered will strike back.”

Responding to such concerns, Paju city employees held an evacuation drill last week with the police, firefighters and the army. In the event of an attack, residents would be led to one of nine underground bomb shelters that the city built after the North’s last violent provocation, the artillery bombardment of a South Korean island three years ago that killed two civilians. The shelters have been freshly stocked with flashlights, medicine, gas masks and first-aid kits, officials said.

But most residents have not taken similar precautions. None of the more than half-dozen residents interviewed said they were stockpiling food or supplies. Many said they were optimistic that such preparations were unnecessary. They were confident, they said, that the bonds of shared ethnicity between the two Koreas would prevail over political differences, and prevent the North from following through on its apocalyptic threats.

“The world thinks we are on the brink of war, but we are fine,” said Gong Soon-hee, 55, a real estate agent whose small office was filled with wall-size maps showing a checkerboard of privately owned plots that abruptly end at the edge of the DMZ, just a few miles away. “Koreans are good people, kind people, not stupid people who would just start a war suddenly.”

Despite the tensions, Ms. Gong said, new homebuyers continue to trickle in, lured by prices that have dropped to less than one-tenth of those in central Seoul. Most give no sign of noticing a formation of helicopters flying overhead as they check out apartments, she said.

“I guess we could hide in an underground parking garage if the shells start falling,” she said, “but we don’t bother with escape plans.”

Others said the current standoff cast a spotlight on the fact that in the face of the North’s threats, the South was in the weaker position because it had so much more to lose. Some said South Korea’s biggest vulnerability was its unwillingness to sacrifice its much higher living standards, a sentiment that would make essentially buying off the North an easier option.

“If this is just going to continue until we give aid, then let’s just give them some aid,” Park Soon-yi, a 44-year-old homemaker, said with a laugh. But she was only half-joking, as she shopped in the upmarket Hillstate high-rise condominium and retail complex. “Then they’ll be quiet, and leave us in peace.”

Su Hyun Lee contributed reporting.
Man I would not Want to be in Seoul right now. but then again they have been living with this since 1953, besides Psy has a big concert coming.

April 5, 2013
Detecting Shift, U.S. Makes Case to China on North Korea
By MARK LANDLER
WASHINGTON — The Obama administration, detecting what it sees as a shift in decades of Chinese support for North Korea, is pressuring China’s new president, Xi Jinping, to crack down on the regime in Pyongyang or face a heightened American military presence in its region.

In a flurry of exchanges that included a recent phone call from President Obama to Mr. Xi, administration officials said, they have briefed the Chinese in detail about American plans to upgrade missile defenses and other steps to deter the increasingly belligerent threats made by North Korea’s young leader, Kim Jong-un.

China, which has been deeply suspicious of the American desire to reassert itself in Asia, has not protested publicly or privately as the United States has deployed ships and warplanes to the Korean Peninsula. That silence, American officials say, attests to both Beijing’s mounting frustration with the North and the recognition that its reflexive support for Pyongyang could strain its ties with Washington.

“The timing of this is important,” Tom Donilon, Mr. Obama’s national security adviser, said in an interview. “It will be an important early exercise between the United States and China, early in the term of Xi Jinping and early in the second term of President Obama.”

While administration officials cautioned that Mr. Xi has been in office for only a few weeks and that China has a history of frustrating the United States in its dealings with North Korea, Mr. Donilon said he believed that China’s position was “evolving.”

Judging whether China has genuinely changed course on North Korea is tricky: Beijing has appeared to respond to American pressure before, only to backtrack later. China, the North’s only strong ally, has long feared the United States would capitalize on the fall of the North Korean leadership by expanding American military influence on the Korean Peninsula.

Nor has China given clues about its intentions in its public statements, voicing grave concern about the rising tensions while being careful not to elevate Mr. Kim’s stature.

Chinese analysts say there are internal debates within the Communist Party and the military about how to deal with Mr. Kim, and how strongly to enforce the United Nations’ economic sanctions that China signed on to last month.

The White House said it was encouraged by how swiftly China had supported the sanctions, which followed a North Korean nuclear test and a missile launch. But some diplomats and analysts say China has dragged its feet in enforcing them.

In a meeting with two senior American officials who traveled to Beijing two weeks ago to try to persuade China to enforce new banking restrictions on North Korea, Chinese banking leaders showed little sign of compliance, said Marcus Noland, an expert on North Korea at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

“But I wouldn’t expect them publicize it,” even if they did move ahead, Mr. Noland added.

Many analysts say the sanctions cannot succeed without China’s cooperation, since it has close trade ties with North Korea and has in the past chosen to keep its government afloat by providing fuel and significant aid.

China continues to say economic sanctions will not work. A Chinese diplomat who is involved in policy on North Korea said recently that he thought China would enforce the new United Nations sanctions to a point but would not go as far as the Obama administration wanted.

Even if China does cooperate, it is unclear how far North Korea might bend; North Korea ignored China’s entreaties not to conduct the nuclear test in February that set off the latest conflict with the United States and South Korea.

In the coming weeks, the White House will send a stream of senior officials to China to press its case, starting with Secretary of State John Kerry, who will travel to Beijing next Saturday, on an Asian tour that will also take him to South Korea and Japan.

In the short run, officials said, the administration wants the Chinese to be rigorous in customs inspections to interdict the flow of banned goods to North Korea. More broadly, it wants China to persuade Mr. Kim to cease his provocations and agree to negotiations on giving up his nuclear program.

On Friday, North Korea stoked tensions further by advising Russia, Britain and other countries that they might want to evacuate their embassies in Pyongyang in case of hostilities, according to Russian and British officials. Analysts dismissed the warning as a ploy to frighten the United States and its allies, perhaps to finally force concessions.

In Beijing, officials said Mr. Kerry also wants to reinvigorate the dialogue with China on climate change. And the United States is pushing the Chinese leadership to crack down on the proliferation of cyberattacks on American government and commercial interests originating in China.

Making progress on those issues will be easier if Washington is in sync with Beijing over North Korea. A week after Mr. Kerry’s visit, Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will spend four days in China to try to improve communication between the American and Chinese militaries. Any problem there is especially dangerous now, officials say, given China’s expanded military ambitions and the intensified American activity in the region.

Mr. Donilon plans to visit Beijing in May. Part of the heavy rotation of diplomacy, officials said, is to compensate for the fact that Mr. Obama is not scheduled to meet Mr. Xi until September.

Based on their meetings with Mr. Xi so far, administration officials said they believed he viewed Beijing’s relationship with Pyongyang more pragmatically than his predecessor, Hu Jintao, whose reluctance to act against Pyongyang so frustrated Mr. Obama that in 2010 he accused the Chinese of “willful blindness” toward North Korea.

Last month, Mr. Xi spoke by phone with the new president of South Korea, Park Geun-hye, telling Ms. Park how much China prized its ties with South Korea and offering China’s assistance in the “reconciliation and cooperation” of the two Koreas. Such sentiments, analysts said, would have been inconceivable from President Hu.

By contrast, there has been little high-level contact between Mr. Kim and Chinese officials, which American officials cited as evidence of growing irritation on the part of the Chinese.

“What we have seen is a subtle change in Chinese thinking,” Kurt M. Campbell, a former assistant secretary of state for East Asian affairs, said in a speech Thursday at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. The Chinese now believe North Korea’s actions are “antithetical” to their national security interests, he said.

That thinking has also surfaced in recent articles by Chinese scholars that have called into question China’s policy. Deng Yuwen, the influential deputy editor of a Communist Party journal, wrote in The Financial Times that “Beijing should give up on Pyongyang and press for the reunification of the Korean Peninsula.”

And yet Mr. Deng has since been suspended from his job, which underscores how little China’s attitude has changed.

Some voices are urging China not to be rattled by the crisis. A hawkish major general in the People’s Liberation Army, Luo Yuan, who often writes in the Chinese state-run news media, appeared unperturbed by the actions of Mr. Kim or by the dispatch of American ships and planes in support of South Korea.

When the current American and South Korean joint military exercises end this month, he wrote in a blog post on China’s social media site, Sina Weibo, North Korea will calm down and return to the status quo of “no war, no unification,” which remains in China’s favor.

Jeffrey A. Bader, a former Asia adviser to Mr. Obama, said he believes that any change will be subtle. The Chinese, he said, “will continue to use similar language, and their public demeanor will be similar, but quietly, they will be much more aggressive, much more fed up and much more prepared to treat North Korea differently than in the past.”

Jane Perlez contributed reporting from Beijing, and Neil MacFarquhar from the United Nations.
And Now the most Disturbing North Korean Video

[video]http://www.collegehumor.com/video/6847475/the-adventures-of-kim-jong-un-kim-jong-un-vs-psy[/video]

Dempsey: N. Korean provocations fit long pattern
Apr. 5, 2013 - 12:12PM |
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North Korea's bellicose rhetoric and threats appear to fit a decades-long pattern of provocation followed by uneasy peace, Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said April 5. (Brendan Smialowski / AFP via Getty Images)

By Robert Burns, AP National Security Writer
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STUTTGART, Germany — North Korea's bellicose rhetoric and threats, while worrisome, appear to fit a decades-long pattern of provocation followed by uneasy peace, the top U.S. military officer said Friday.

“I wouldn't say I see anything to lead me to believe that this is a different kind of cycle,” Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in an interview after speaking at a ceremony installing Gen. David Rodriquez as chief of U.S. Africa Command.

Dempsey's remarks suggested that he does not believe the situation is headed toward war, despite a series of threatening statements by the North, including a declaration this week that its military is authorized to launch a nuclear attack on the United States.

Other U.S. officials have said this week they see no North Korean preparations for large-scale military action, but White House spokesman Jay Carney said a missile launch wasn't unexpected.

"We would not be surprised to see them take such an action," he told. "We have seen them launch missiles in the past."

Dempsey called the North's nuclear threat “just reckless” and contrasted such talk with what he described as measured moves by the U.S. to deter the North and to reassure South Korea.

“Our moves have been largely defensive and exclusively intended to reassure our allies,” he said, referring in part to the announcement that a more advanced missile defense system, designed to knock down hostile missiles in the upper atmosphere and beyond, would be deployed to Guam, a U.S. territory in the Pacific that hosts U.S. forces.

The U.S. also has made a point of highlighting aspects of an annual U.S.-South Korean military exercise that included a practice bombing run over South Korea by B-2 stealth bombers, as well as flights of B-52 bombers and the presence of F-22 stealth fighter planes.

The U.S. and South Korea have been at odds with North Korea for more than a half century. The two sides fought a three-year war in the 1950s that ended in a truce, and the North has long complained that the U.S. intends to overthrow its leaders.

Washington is treaty-bound to come to South Korea's defense if Seoul is attacked.

North Korea responded with fury to U.N. sanctions following its third nuclear test Feb. 12, and to the U.S.-South Korean military exercise known as Foal Eagle. Among other statements, it has threatened a nuclear strike against the U.S., declared that it has scrapped the Korean War truce, blocked South Koreans from entering a jointly run industrial park and announced that it will take new steps to produce more fuel for nuclear bombs.

Despite downplaying the North Korean threats, Dempsey said there is no room to be casual about the current tensions on the Korean peninsula. He noted, for example, that the North's threat to launch a nuclear attack on the U.S. “is new” and is worrisome, given the North's development of ballistic missiles as well as nuclear devices. He said it is not clear that they have reached the point where they can fit a nuclear warhead atop a missile that could reach distant targets.

“The combination of that makes it very reckless” to threaten a nuclear attack, he said.

Asked how the U.S. is dealing with that, he said, “we'll live up to our alliance obligations and protect our national interests, and that's not being bellicose, that's being very matter-of-fact.”

Dempsey said another troublesome factor is the North's young leader, Kim Jong Un, who came to power after his father's death in December 2011 and is a grandson of North Korea's founder, Kim Il Sung. He said U.S. officials do not know who in his inner circle influences Kim.

“Though we've always said that North Korea has been a bit opaque to us, in the past we've understood their leadership and the influencers a little better than we do today,” he said. “And so the extent to which this cycle (of provocation) is a little more unpredictable, it's because of him. We know less about him. But the pattern is very similar.”
 
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LesAdieux

Junior Member
What kind of deal might that be? The only thing that might tempt China to give up NK would be for SK and the new reunite Korea to be firmly on China's side, and that is just not something the Americans will ever offer up.

I agree that there is increased annoyance and resentment in Beijing at all of NK's antics and the diplomatic price China is having to pay to clean up NK's mess. That is why China co-sponsored the UN resolution condemning NK, and also why China is starting to squeeze of the grey and black market across the Yalu that helps keep NK regime alive.

Instead of getting a hint and keeping their head down, NK seems to have gone the other way, and I cannot help but wonder if all this shrill crying is as much for China's benefit as it is for America and South Korea's.

korea is not a small nation, it can stand on its own and doesn't need to choose a protector.

the united korea will have about 70 million people with a good chance to make to the top 10 economy in the world, south korea a member of the G20, has a well developed economy, ranks around 15th at the moment.

historically the relationship between korea and china has been good, there's no territory dispute. China is the most important trading partner of sk, twice as important as america.

two korea like two germany is the legacy of the WWII, but unlike germany or japan, korea is not a defeated nation, after the reunification, america will have no excuse to stay.
 

thunderchief

Senior Member
the united korea will have about 70 million people with a good chance to make to the top 10 economy in the world, south korea a member of the G20, has a well developed economy, ranks around 15th at the moment.

two korea like two germany is the legacy of the WWII, but unlike germany or japan, korea is not a defeated nation, after the reunification, america will have no excuse to stay.

North Korean population will be a huge problem for united Korea . They are very poor , practically starving and with no meaningful working skills for highly automatized South Korean industry . Imagine that Kim's regime disappear today . What would happen ? Millions of North Koreans would just stream across the border into South Korea looking for a piece of bread . They would compete with South Koreans for manual jobs (bringing the wages down) , some of them would beg on the streets , maybe even resort to crime .

Comparing with German unification , East Germans were in much better shape then North Koreans , yet Germany spent billions to develop that part of the country and they didn't succeed completely . In my opinion (which nobody cares about ;) ) best thing for North Koreans would be some kind of joint protectorate of North Korea by China and South Korea , with opportunity for Chinese and South Korean businesses to build factories in North Korea and employ cheap North Korean labor force (something like Kaesong Industrial region , but on the bigger scale) . But fat chance something like this happening now , way the thing are going .
 

Franklin

Captain
It is quite funny to me that while the membership here is convinced that the Western media is out there to blacken China's name and there are even threads dedicated to that the latest one is "Why does the West gets China wrong". But then turn around and are willing to believe anything that the same Western media are saying about North Korea. If you are someone who thinks that statements coming from North Korea and their closing of the Kaeson industrial zone or moving around a few missile's is provocative, but if the Americans are flying B-2 stealth bombers with nuclear capabilities close to the DMZ is not. Then you have already internalized all of the half truth and distortions that the media is selling you. If everyone on this forum believed everything that the media says about China then we would have had a very different forum than the one we have now. Why are members willing to believe things said in the media about North Korea and not China ? That is because of a lack of knowledge about North Korea and the history of the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula. The Kim dynasty has a lot to answer for the situation inside of North Korea and the tensions on the Peninsula and the wider region, but they are not the only ones to blame. The history of the North Korean nuclear crisis didn't begin in february 2013 but back in 1994.

Here is a recap of the North Korean nuclear crisis 1994.

North Korea Nuclear Crisis
February 1993 - June 1994

The nuclear challenge from North Korea in 1993 and 1994 focused on halting of the existing North Korean nuclear program, which by June 1994 was poised to leap forward in its production of weapons-grade plutonium.

In late 1991 North and South Korea signed an Agreement on Reconciliation, Non-aggression, Exchanges and Cooperation and the Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. The Joint Declaration called for a bilateral nuclear inspection regime to verify the denuclearization of the peninsula and in 1991 George Bush pulled American tactical nuclear weapons off the Korean Peninsula. The Declaration, which came into force on 19 February 1992, states that the two sides "shall not test, manufacture, produce, receive, possess, store, deployor use nuclear weapons," and that they "shall not possess nuclear reprocessing and uranium enrichment facilities." When North Korean Deputy Prime Minister Kim Tal-Hyon visited South Korea for economic talks in July 1992, President Roh Tae Woo announced that full North-South Economic Cooperation would not be possible without resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue. There was little progress toward the establishment of an inspection regime, and dialogue between the South and North stalled in the fall of 1992.

Pyongyang finally signed the accord with the IAEA in 1992. The North's agreement to accept The North's agreement to accept IAEA safeguards initiated a series of IAEA inspections of North Korea's nuclear facilities. This promising development was halted by the North's refusal to allow special inspections of two unreported facilities suspected of holding nuclear waste. Ignoring the South-North Joint Declaration of the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, North Korea refused IAEA inspections and operated nuclear reprocessing facilities, making the world suspicious of its nuclear intentions.

On February 10, 1993, North Korea refused to permit the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to conduct special inspections, as permitted under the terms of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), of two undeclared nuclear-related sites to clarify discrepancies related to North Korea's nuclear program, and on March 12, 1993, North Korea announced its intention to withdraw from the NPT effective on June 12, 1993, due to the insistence of the IAEA on exercising inspection rights under the NPT.

On April 1, 1993, the IAEA declared North Korea to be in noncompliance with the NPT; on April 2, 1993, the IAEA voted to refer North Korean violations of the Treaty to the United Nations Security Council; and on April 7, 1993, the IAEA issued a formal censure on North Korea for its noncompliance with the NPT, the first censure in the history of the IAEA. On May 11, 1993, the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution asking North Korea to allow IAEA inspections under the NPT, and on May 12, 1993, North Korea rejected the request of the United Nations Security Council and subsequently impeded or refused access to any of its sites by IAEA inspectors.

The North's threat to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) brought North-South progress to an abrupt halt. Tensions ran high on the Korean Peninsula as the confrontation between North Korea and the United States deepened. The US objective was to bring North Korea back into full compliance with its NPT obligations and to restart talks with the Republic of Korea aimed at a denuclearized Korean peninsula. On June 2, 1993, the United States and North Korea initiated a series of meetings in New York to discuss the impasse in nuclear site inspections, which continued until January 4, 1994, when Under Secretary of State Lynn Davis announced that North Korea had agreed to inspections of seven declared nuclear-related sites.

However, by April 1994 diplomatic efforts reached an impasse. The North Koreans did not permit the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to conduct essential activities during its recent inspection. As a result, the Agency was unable to certify that the North is not diverting or producing nuclear material for non-peaceful purposes, and the Agency's Board of Governors passed a resolution referring this matter to the UN Security Council. The North also broken off negotiations with the South on exchanging envoys to discuss the nuclear issue.

The United States and South Korea offered to suspend the Team Spirit '94 military exercise on the premise that North Korea would full implement the IAEA inspection and exchange envoys with the South to discuss the nuclear issue. Subsequently, no Team Spirit exercises have been held since 1993. The North Korean response to first Team Spirit exercise in 1976 was the proximate source of the "tree-cutting" incident that led to Operation Paul Bunyan.

Tensions increased following the incursion into North Korean airspace in December 1994 of a small US helicopter that had lost its way in bad weather. It had been shot down, killing one of the two crew members; the other was released after negotiations that produced a US statement of "regret."

In March 1994 the United States and South Korea agreed to deploy Patriot missiles to South Korea in response to the threat posed by North Korea's ballistic missles. 11th Air Defense Artillery "Imperial" Brigade soldiers of the 2-7 ADA (re-designated as 5-52 ADA) rapidly deployed to the Republic of Korea in response to rising tensions over North Korea's nuclear program. Later in 1994 the 1st Battalion the 43rd Air Defense Artillery Regiment deployed to the Korean theater to relieve 2-7 ADA in the Tactical Ballistic Missile Defense of the peninsula. As 1-43 ADA began their plans to move the entire battalion to the Republic of Korea, the battallion synchronized its deployment with 2-7 ADA's return, providing the Republic of Korea, for the first time in history, a permanent basing of the Patriot missile system. Patriot Batteries of the 1st Battalion, 43rd Air Defense Artillery Regiment were deployed at Kunsun and Suwon.

US Army Pacific units, III Corps Headquarters, Fort Hood, Texas, and individual augmentees participated in the command post Reception, Staging, Onward Movement and Integration (RSOI) Exercise in Korea. The purpose of the joint and combined exercise was to train Combined Forces Command and subordinate commands, United States Forces Korea staff and components, and ROK-US logistics organizations and staffs on the reception, staging, onward movement and integration of units from the United States in an emergency deployment in defense of South Korea. RSOI, first conducted in April 1994, became an annual exercise thereafter.

North Korea threatened to go to war if sanctions were imposed by the international community. In Mid-May 1994 US Defense Secretary Perry noted that "The North Koreans have stated that they would consider the imposition of sanctions to be equivalent to a declaration of war. ... We may believe, and I do believe, that this is rhetoric on their part, but we cannot act on that belief. We have to act on the prudent assumption that there will be some increase in the risk of war if we go to a sanction regime."

On 24 May 1994 Senator John McCain urged a number of additional military steps for the United States to prepare for such a contingency occur well ahead of any anticipated military action. First, increase the readiness and alert posture of U.S. and South Korean forces; second, deploy to South Korea additional troops from the United States; third, deploy additional fighter aircraft squadrons and Apache helicopters to South Korea; fourth, deploy a carrier battle group to the area; fifth, preposition bombers and tankers in the region; sixth, preposition stocks in South Korea; since, again, significant lack of strategic lift precludes the timely sustainment of our forces during the crisis; seventh, enhance intelligence collection and sharing with South Korea, focusing increased intelligence assets, both satellites and aircraft systems, in the theater; eighth, enhance South Korean defenses with Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), counter-artillery radars, and precision-guided munitions; and ninth, neither American and South Korean forces nor the population of Seoul have effective defenses against a chemical or biological attack from the North.

Senator McCain and others suggested that the United States must consider taking stronger measures should further efforts fail to persuade North Korea to end the crisis. Advocates of military did not call for an immediate resort to offensive military actions immediately, but rather suggested that the imposition of sanctions should be attempted, and that the necessary improvements to readiness should be effected. Strikes using high-performance aircraft would be required to eliminate these facilities, since they are so heavily reinforced and cruise missiles would not be effective. Because of heavy air defenses around these facilities, the risk to American pilots would be considerable. Although air or cruise missile strikes on North Korea's nuclear facilities would not completely destroy their nuclear program, they could damage it severely over both the near and long term.

Extensive bombing of the reactor or reprocessing plant could cause the release of nuclear radiation which might be carried by prevailing winds to South Korea. Precision targeting could effectively damage the capabilities of both facilities without requiring that they be reduced to rubble, and with little or no radiation release. While it would be preferable to strike the reactor while it was not operational, even if it was fully refueled and has been restarted, the radiation release would be minimal with a new fuel load. Strikes could be targeted in such a way as to cause the building to collapse in on itself without seriously damaging any fuel rods in the core.

If no spent fuel rods were moved to the reprocessing facility, it could be hit without risk of a radiation release. Even if a small number have been stored there, a precision strike on the building, designed to disrupt future operations for some period of time, would not result in a significant release of radiation. With precision targeting, a hit could be designed to cause the building to collapse in on itself with virtually no radiation release.

Less difficult options--if also less effective against North Korea's near-term threat--would be strikes against North Korea's huge new 250 megawatt reactor which was scheduled to become operational by the end of the year, another even larger reactor which will be operational in 1996, and an associated reprocessing plant that will begin operations in about 6 months. Since these facilities were not on-line, and have no nuclear fuel on site at this time, there would be no risk of radiation release.

The objective of the strikes would be to irreparably damage the facilities and surrounding support structures, including power plants. High-performance aircraft or Tomahawk cruise missile strikes targeted on these three facilities might effectively eliminate North Korea's planned expansion of their nuclear program. Cruise missiles would eliminate the direct risk of death or capture of any American pilots.

Throughout the crisis, the United States sought to avoid escalation to a military conflict that might once again involve Chinese military intervention. According to published reports in 1994, under the the China-North Korea Friendship Treaty signed in 1961, China formulated plans to support North Korea by sending ground troops between 50,000 and 75,000 soldiers--who belong to the three divisions of the 39th Shenyang Military District Army stationed in Dalian--as well as approximately 10,000 rapid deployment troops of the Jinan Military District to the latter. However China reportedly would send its troops to North Korea only if North Korea is cornered as a result of an invasion by the United States and South Korea, and that if North Korea invades South Korea, China would not directly provide military support to North Korea, except for spare parts or ammunition for the Chinese-made weapons North Korea currently possesses.

After a period of high tension brought on by failure to resolve the nuclear issue, and Security Council discussion of UN sanctions against the DPRK, former President Carter's visit to Pyongyang in June 1994 helped to defuse tensions and resulted in renewed South-North talks. A third round of talks between the US and the DPRK opened in Geneva on July 8, 1994. However, the sudden death of North Korean leader Kim Il Sung on July 8, 1994 halted plans for a first ever South-North presidential summit and led to another period of inter-Korean animosity. The talks were resumed in August. Finally, an Agreed Framework was signed between the US and North Korea in Geneva on 21 October 1994, capping the on-and-off bilateral negotiations which altogether had lasted for more than a year and a half.

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History doesn't end in 1994 either. The negotiations resulted in the 1994 Agreed Frame Work that all sides signed it has obligations on it that both sides need to honor.

on the North Korean side:

DPRK's graphite-moderated 5MWe nuclear reactor, and the 50 MWe and 200 MWe reactors under construction, which could easily produce weapons grade plutonium, would be replaced with two 1000MW light water reactors (LWR) power plants by a target date of 2003.

The DPRK would take steps to implement the 1992 Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

The DPRK would remain a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

IAEA ad hoc and routine inspections would resume for facilities not subject to the freeze.

Existing spent nuclear fuel stocks would be stored and ultimately disposed of without reprocessing in the DPRK.

Before delivery of key LWR nuclear components, the DPRK would come into full compliance with its safeguards agreement with the IAEA.

On the American and allies side:

Oil for heating and electricity production would be provided while DPRK's reactors were shut down and construction halted, until completion of the first LWR power unit. The amount of oil was 500,000 tons of heavy fuel oil per year.

The two sides would move toward full normalization of political and economic relations.

The U.S. would provide formal assurances to the DPRK, against the threat or use of nuclear weapons by the U.S.

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The North Koreans from 1994 till 2002 has more or less kept their end of the bargain but the Americans and their allies have not.

The 2 light water reactors that was supposed to be provided to the North Koreans never materialized, the North Koreans still don't have the reactors now almost 19 years to date. The fuel and food aid for North Korea came in only tepidly and never reached the agreed amount. The reason why all this has happened is because the Bill Clinton administration was committed to their signed undertakings but the Republicans dominated congress refuse to fund it. They feel that its a bad deal but have no alternatives to this situation of their own. Despite these infringements on the agreement that all sides has signed the North Koreans sticked to their part of the bargain.

There was also an agreement to normalize relations with North Korea. There was some real effort to this under president Bill Clinton, comonating in the high point of the visit by secretary of state Madeline Albright to North Korea in october of 2000. Just a few weeks before the 2000 presidential elections in the US that ended controversially with George W. Bush becoming the winner. In the mean time in South Korea there is also a new wind. In 1998 Kim Dae Jung got elected as South Korea's new president. A former christian dissident under military rule, he started what's called the Sunshine Policy towards the North Koreans and in this period a lot has been achieved with family reunion's and a direct train route opening across the border. And a goodwill visit from a sport team from North to South Korea. The Olympic teams of both North and South Korea marched in the opening ceremonies of the 2000, 2004 Summer Olympics and the 2006 Winter Olympics and the 2006 Asian Games together under the Korean Unification Flag. And for president Kim Dae Jung's effort reaching out to North Korea he recieved a Nobel Peace Prize. This Sunshine Policy continued under Kim Dae Jung's successor Roh Moo Hyun.

But things soon turned sour after the George W. Bush administration came into power. The North Koreans thought that George W. Bush would stick to the old policies of Bill Clinton. But instead George W. Bush has turned hostile toward North Korea and repudiated all of the signed undertakings under Bill Clinton. And in 2002 George W. Bush in his State of the Union adress he puts North Korea into a "Axis of Evil" together with Iraq and Iran. The South Koreans weren't happy about this and when president Kim Dae Jung came to visit Washington DC, the tension between the two men in the White House press conference was barely concealed. If the South Koreans were unhappy about the situation the North Koreans were livid. And on 10 april 2003 one day after the fall of Baghdad the North Koreans redrew from the NPT treaty. This set the North Koreans down the road of nuclear weapons and they had their first atomic bomb test on 9 october 2006. The response of the US to all this is to call for multilateral actions against North Korea. Resulting into the Six Party Talks. Beginning from 2003 and onwards, the last round of talks was in 2007. Obviously these talks didn't have the hoped for results as North Korea is now a nuclear weapons state. The North Korea policy of the US is a litany of broken promises and turns of hostility, which has in large parts helped us to be where we are today.
 
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MwRYum

Major
Considering the American people did voted that Administration twice, hmmm...in any case, it all left to China to mop up the extra crap.

And one thing about a unified Korea, unless S.Korea is sitting on a budgetary surplus or something, it'd actually crash Korea's economy very hard...first there will be millions of malnutrition people to feed at least to WHO recommended standards, massive deprogramming, gradual updating their education to bridge it up to today's standard, and massive investments needed to upgrade the infrastructures to meet today's standards. Such undertaking can't be floated by Korean capital alone, but who else in the world now can shell out that kind of money? Sure China's capital would be convenient, but something tells me the Americans won't stand for it, alas they couldn't put up that much capital.

And what about unemployment? Most of the KPA will be very likely become jobless in the new order, with their kind of skill set would most likely be useful only in PMC kind of business...

Then comes the even more unsettling aspect of ideological vacuum - in most communist nations, states failed to kill off the old religions and when reform comes (or the state folded) the old religions quickly fill back the ideological vacuum, but as far as can be seen in N.Korea only the "cult of Kim" left standing, everything else is dead. When the day came and gone, it's a free-for-all to every single evangelical group...mated with stockpiles of WND and conventional arms, folks who are spiritually as empty as their stomach looking for whatever kind of salvation, it'd be an open season for all those doomsday cults we took for idiots...
 
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