Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Radar

Re: Abe cites Thatcher reflections on Falklands war

kwaigonegin said:

Bigger question is why? Even if Japan wins what exactly will it accomplished? At best it will be a phyrric victory at worst it will cause Japan to go into an economic collapsed and destabilizes the entire asian pacific region if not the world even if they win a technical war. Either way Abe will be run out of office. I honestly believe that this issue with the islands is as much an ego/national pride thing as it is a practical one. Unless the island themselves are made of gold and diamonds it is just not worth it IMHO but like said before there have been many many wars and battles fought in the past that stemmed from emotions and ego trip.

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Emotions and ego trip is exactly the issue here. Even though Japan was defeated in WW2, they think of themselves as having been defeated by Americans and not by the Chinese. For over 100 years, the Japanese have held a sense of superiority against the Chinese, and for the first time ever, that sentiment is being challenged.

Re: Abe cites Thatcher reflections on Falklands war

solarz said:

For over 100 years, the Japanese have held a sense of superiority against the Chinese, and for the first time ever, that sentiment is being challenged.

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And the 100 years before that, China felt it was superior to everyone else. And for most of the last 100 years Japan was in a far superior position to China. It wasn't about "sense", it was an objective assessment. Even now that China has a larger GDP, Japanese people have a far better quality of life than Chinese people and will continue to do so for a very long time.

Even though Japan was defeated in WW2, they think of themselves as having been defeated by Americans and not by the Chinese.

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I have a different perspective. I would say that although China was on the winning side, it didn't feel like a victory to China, especially given that the Chinese Civil War restarted very quickly. And unlike Germany where even the French had a sector of influence, there were no Chinese troops in Japan after the war.

Emotions and ego trip is exactly the issue here.

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And you're really sure that's not the case with China too?

antiterror13 said:

The American attitude toward China would be different than now, would be friendlier

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Because China's economy was bigger? Might be a reason for Sino-American relations to be more hostile, with neither country tolerating the other being top dog!

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

You guys are way exagerrating this ''war talk'' between china & japan over a few tiny islands. it remains to be seen if Abe can keep his job for a mere 15 months! how many jap prime ministers have we seen in the past 10 years (btw this is shinzo abe's 2nd stint as PM of Japan the first time he was PM he didn't last ONE YEAR)? there simply cant be a war between these 2 giants and its just the fact because it will be too devestating for the both of them . If japan was really that strong then Abe wouldn't have to go to the US begging for help. this DYT dispute is just childs play, the chinese have time on their side, they are growing in power and it suits them to just play along and not overreact. the japs can't bag the islands and take them home, these islands will still be there in a couple of decades. all the chinese have to do is build a nice fleet of civillian agency ships for the CMS, FLEC, CMA etc...and engage with the japs.

China hasn't deviated from its strategy of building up its economy first. Economic strength is the core for national power. If you wonder why Chinese leaders have patience then just take note of this: China economy 2012 8.3 trillion (IMF data) china economy 2013 9.0 trillion (IMF projection) thats approx 700 billion increase in a year. in approx one decade the chinese economy will be bigger than the US economy. The chinese have patience because as far as they are concerned, the game hasn't even started yet, this is just a mere warm up.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

Chinese leaders are pragmatic. Although the Japanese government still does not officially acknowledge there is a dispute, The world now knows there is a dispute between China and Japan over the DYT. This itself is victory for the Chinese. Japan can continue to officially deny there is a conflict in the short term but the Chinese should and will continue to be firm until there is no denying anymore, officially or otherwise.

The goal is a final settlement on the DYT issue. Yet a dialogue cannot start if Japan continues to DENY there is a dispute. This is just like the DENIAL of the comfort women issue. The current Prime Minister of Japan stated today exactly 6 years ago on March 1, 2007, that there was no evidence that the Japanese government had kept sex slaves. That is why both issues remain unresolved to this day.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

Said it before and I'll say it again. A much deeper game is in play between China and the US and Japan has just volunteered itself as the ball.

The "Re-Pivot to Asia" is highly dependant on the US having reliable (and pliable) allies in the region. China's interest is to test those alliances to destruction and thereby undermine the entire strategy. If this means a reinvigorated, even Nuclear Armed Japan following an entirely independent Foreign Policy, then I have no doubt that China regards this as a price well worth paying.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

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Re: Abe cites Thatcher reflections on Falklands war

Engineer said:

I believe that Japan is indeed pushing for war, but for a slightly different reason. The military balance in Asia-Pacific is rapidly shifting in favor of China, and Japan knows this. Japan wants a war now because it might have a chance of winning. In a few more years, that chance would be zero.

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Japan can't push for any kind of war whatsoever. It's simply back to the early 20th century scenario again for Japan. They don't have the resource and material power to handle a war with China. They even don't have the man power. If they lose all those fancy ships and planes, where are they going to get the rare earth, money, and minerals necessary to replace all the lost equipment and war machines for defense? Even with the US defending the four major islands it still needs the JSDF to be effective in numbers as well. Meanwhile, China has the man power and materials to rebuild rapidly any if it's defense equipment lost after a war with Japan.

Re: Abe cites Thatcher reflections on Falklands war

Equation said:

Japan can't push for any kind of war whatsoever. It's simply back to the early 20th century scenario again for Japan. They don't have the resource and material power to handle a war with China. They even don't have the man power. If they lose all those fancy ships and planes, where are they going to get the rare earth, money, and minerals necessary to replace all the lost equipment and war machines for defense? Even with the US defending the four major islands it still needs the JSDF to be effective in numbers as well. Meanwhile, China has the man power and materials to rebuild rapidly any if it's defense equipment lost after a war with Japan.

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If you've take a look at their revisionist cultures and sub-cultures, as well as the kind of rubbish spill from their right-wing politicians who are now running the show, you'd realize the Japanese have learned practically nothing from their experiences, or have any remorse - in fact, they tirelessly glorifying it.

Thus, what makes you think those lot, who elected on a right-wing revisionist platform, got any wiser?

So rest assured, the Japanese will push for another "wipe out China in 3 months" war...

Re: Abe cites Thatcher reflections on Falklands war

MwRYum said:

If you've take a look at their revisionist cultures and sub-cultures, as well as the kind of rubbish spill from their right-wing politicians who are now running the show, you'd realize the Japanese have learned practically nothing from their experiences, or have any remorse - in fact, they tirelessly glorifying it.

Thus, what makes you think those lot, who elected on a right-wing revisionist platform, got any wiser?

So rest assured, the Japanese will push for another "wipe out China in 3 months" war...

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Those are sub culture elites and the few, it doesn't represent the majority or the whole of Japan. Those hawkish right wing Japanese are just plain racist and are worrying about preserving the "purity" of their ethnic heritage. Those are the ones who really delve into the Japanese Royal family as the sole protection of their ethnicity.

And outsiders are complaining about how "out of touch" the CPC or China as a Communist country, should look more closely at Japan's hawkish elite groups.

Re: Abe cites Thatcher reflections on Falklands war

Mysterre said:

By 2020 China's overall naval strength will outmatch Japan's, even if its weaponry is not yet completely at the same level of technology. Certainly by that date a conflict around DYT will heavily favor China, not just because of the above but also because of the proximity of DYT to China's coast. The 22DDH will not be home to any "wings of F-35 aircraft", even if they are able to support them. at 20-something thousand tons, they will certainly not be carrying anything more than a dozen helos (or even less), to speak nothing of fixed wing aviation.

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Sorry, Mysterre, the Chinese Navy will not "outmatch Japan" in 2020. In terms overall number of DDGs, the Japanese will still out number, out weigh (in terms of tonnage) and vastly out number the Chinee Navy in terms of VLS cells it can bring to the party. That will not change until later in the decade if trends continue as they are now...and that does not even factor in the US - Japan mutual defense agreements.

As to the 22DDH, it will have a 27,000 ton full load displacement, and there will be two of them. Between them they will be able to support wings of F-35s if they choose to do so. My guess is each vessel with their much larger hanger spaces, their deck edge elvator and larger and clear flight deck will be able to support at least a dozen F-35s. Whether they will actually do that or not is not clear yet, and certainly, as I stated in my earlier post, it will not be until after ten years hence that the aircraft would be available to Japan anyway. So in 2020, those two carriers will not be a naval aviation factor, only later.

Which is precisely why I said it would be more like 25 years out before China is in a position to truly completely outclass Japan's Navy...and this is if trends continue as they are now. Economically and in every other way, none of us know what 25 years will bring.

I do know however that in ten years the PLAN will not have reached that point unless Japan has a drastioc economic collapse and cannot afford what they have now...but right now, they are building vessels fairly quickly.

Now, this does not mean at all that Japan could hands down defeate the PLAN in the China Sea area. For all of the reasons you gavce, that is not determinate right now, and will continue to be so, with the edge slowly moving towards the Chinese over time.

My point in the earlier post was simple...Japan will not willfully try and push or intimidate China into a war at this time or in the future over those islands. Far too much to lose...even if they were victorious at sea. The overall picture would still be a difficult one tactically for the Japanese even if they won a skirmish with the PLAN, and it would end up meaning a severe consequence to Japan's economy, particularly if they were clearly the agressor.