Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Radar

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

solarz said:

1. Tightened environmental regulations. Order Chinese companies like Foxconn to stop taking orders from Japanese companies.

2. Who cares? If Japan's economy goes into shambles, Abe will get kicked out of office. Then the next leader that comes in will realize it doesn't pay to piss off your biggest customer *and* supplier.

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1. Foxconn is a Taiwanese enterprise, despite it has a huge operation in China...

2. If the message is ineffective then it's pointless. And do reminder Japanese economy has been in recession for 20 plus years, and they don't seem to affect them in any of such way, the last time REM embargo only got them cry foul but not send them crying and begging China for forgiveness. So that's the problem - the only way for Sino-Japanese relationship move forward is after a bloody war that finally decides the real victor. Only then, Japanese would realize time does change.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

MwRYum said:

1. Foxconn is a Taiwanese enterprise, despite it has a huge operation in China...

2. If the message is ineffective then it's pointless. And do reminder Japanese economy has been in recession for 20 plus years, and they don't seem to affect them in any of such way, the last time REM embargo only got them cry foul but not send them crying and begging China for forgiveness. So that's the problem - the only way for Sino-Japanese relationship move forward is after a bloody war that finally decides the real victor. Only then, Japanese would realize time does change.

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1. I don't think the Chinese government has any problems with dictating terms to private companies, wherever they're based.

2. The last REM embargo lasted only a few days, IIRC, and the ship captain got returned pronto.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

MwRYum said:

S.Koreans can, dare and capable to uphold such campaign because they got local brands of similar make and quality. China's embargo on the REM again, hmmm...by what pretext to proceed so the subsequent complaint to the WTO would get thrown out? Or at the core make the Japanese truly received as China's show of strength? Mind you, Japanese as a culture only respect martial strength, and this is certainly not warrant as an effective one, or enough for the Japanese people to think twice of their perceived superiority.

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MwRYum said:

1. Foxconn is a Taiwanese enterprise, despite it has a huge operation in China...

2. If the message is ineffective then it's pointless. And do reminder Japanese economy has been in recession for 20 plus years, and they don't seem to affect them in any of such way, the last time REM embargo only got them cry foul but not send them crying and begging China for forgiveness. So that's the problem - the only way for Sino-Japanese relationship move forward is after a bloody war that finally decides the real victor. Only then, Japanese would realize time does change.

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The trick with not running afoul of WTO is that the boycott has to strictly remain on the consumer end. WTO cannot dictate what a consumer wants to buy. So any suspension of rare earths or govt led boycotts will get tangled with WTO. If there is some sort of Chinese merchant group or citizen group that encourages consumers to boycott, that's a whole different matter and can work. The latest SK boycott may even have been inspired by the Chinese boycott of last year, after seeing what impact it had on Japan. If the two were to simultaneously boycott on a large scale, that would be a potent blow.

Japan doesn't seem to be impacted by it's 20+ recession only because its people having high savings, which enables the govt to keep borrowing from within and its people are willing to loan the money at exceptionally low rates. But that demographic is aging and there's only so much savings to be borrowed against. Eventually, the Japanese govt will need to borrow from foreign sources and foreigners ain't gonna be so lenient with the rates. Then that recession will be felt in full force.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

solarz said:

1. Tightened environmental regulations. Order Chinese companies like Foxconn to stop taking orders from Japanese companies.

2. Who cares? If Japan's economy goes into shambles, Abe will get kicked out of office. Then the next leader that comes in will realize it doesn't pay to piss off your biggest customer *and* supplier.

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I think tightened environmental regulations are probably best.

Re: Abe cites Thatcher reflections on Falklands war

solarz said:

The reason Abe is pushing so hard for a fight is because, unlike the Phillipines for example, the Japanese truly believe that they can defeat China in a naval confrontation. Abe bringing up the Falklands is a clear indication of that belief.

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I believe that Japan is indeed pushing for war, but for a slightly different reason. The military balance in Asia-Pacific is rapidly shifting in favor of China, and Japan knows this. Japan wants a war now because it might have a chance of winning. In a few more years, that chance would be zero.

Re: Abe cites Thatcher reflections on Falklands war

Engineer said:

I believe that Japan is indeed pushing for war, but for a slightly different reason. The military balance in Asia-Pacific is rapidly shifting in favor of China, and Japan knows this. Japan wants a war now because it might have a chance of winning. In a few more years, that chance would be zero.

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Well...what's a few years?

Certainly not in the next ten years. In that time Japan will have produced quite a few Akizuki class (6,800 ton VLS) AEGIS-like BMD escorts that are themselves very capable multi-role DDGs (they have already launched four of them and are about to commission the second) and will still have their six large AEGIS vessels (9-10,000 tons), the five Takanamis (6,400 tons VLS), the nine Murasamis (6,200 tons VLS), as well as the two Hyugas and two new, larger, 22DDH and 24DDH vessels probably capable of fixed-wing air aviation themselves. In the following years after that (another 6-8) they will probably have wings of F-35 aircraft operating off of those carriers.

So, though the odds in that same time period will have evened up significantly, to say that the JMSDF will have "zero" cance is too much a stretch IMHO over the next 15+ years. Particularly if the mutual defense treaty between Japan and the US continues to hold strong.

25-30 years? Now that may be a different matter altogether.


Having said all of that...IMHO, the Japanese would be crazy to push for war themselves now, or in the future. Responding to abject agression, yes...but to push a dispute like those Islands willfully to war with a nation like China, would be absolutely crazy. It is not likely that China is going to commit "abject agresssion," against Japan. So, even if Japan happend to be victorious at sea (which is no sure thing), they certainly would not "defeat," China and would only foster a simmering hot/cold war in the Western Pacific for years and years to come which would hurt them badly economically. They could not afford such a victory.

Re: Abe cites Thatcher reflections on Falklands war

Engineer said:

I believe that Japan is indeed pushing for war, but for a slightly different reason. The military balance in Asia-Pacific is rapidly shifting in favor of China, and Japan knows this. Japan wants a war now because it might have a chance of winning. In a few more years, that chance would be zero.

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Bigger question is why? Even if Japan wins what exactly will it accomplished? At best it will be a phyrric victory at worst it will cause Japan to go into an economic collapsed and destabilizes the entire asian pacific region if not the world even if they win a technical war. Either way Abe will be run out of office. I honestly believe that this issue with the islands is as much an ego/national pride thing as it is a practical one. Unless the island themselves are made of gold and diamonds it is just not worth it IMHO but like said before there have been many many wars and battles fought in the past that stemmed from emotions and ego trip.

Re: Abe cites Thatcher reflections on Falklands war

Jeff Head said:

Well...what's a few years?

Certainly not in the next ten years. In that time Japan will have produced quite a few Akizuki class (6,800 ton VLS) AEGIS-like BMD escorts that are themselves very capable multi-role DDGs (they have already launched four of them and are about to commission the second) and will still have their six large AEGIS vessels (9-10,000 tons), the five Takanamis (6,400 tons VLS), the nine Murasamis (6,200 tons VLS), as well as the two Hyugas and two new, larger, 22DDH and 24DDH vessels probably capable of fixed-wing air aviation themselves. In the following years after that (another 6-8) they will probably have wings of F-35 aircraft operating off of those carriers.

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By 2020 China's overall naval strength will outmatch Japan's, even if its weaponry is not yet completely at the same level of technology. Certainly by that date a conflict around DYT will heavily favor China, not just because of the above but also because of the proximity of DYT to China's coast. The 22DDH will not be home to any "wings of F-35 aircraft", even if they are able to support them. at 20-something thousand tons, they will certainly not be carrying anything more than a dozen helos (or even less), to speak nothing of fixed wing aviation. By this date the Liaoning will be operating 2 dozen J-15's. Supported by shore-based PLANAF, Japan's ships are going to have a very difficult time providing its ships with adequate aviation support to defend itself against PLANAF fighters. And then there's all the SRBM's that the 2nd Artillery is stockpiling, some of them could potentially be used as antiship weapons.

Re: Abe cites Thatcher reflections on Falklands war

Jeff Head said:

Well...what's a few years?

Certainly not in the next ten years....

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Well, I don't think the next 10 years China will be producing vessels that can outclass what Japan will field but she should be able to have fully modernized her entire naval fleet. From that point on, China can crank out vessels like hot cakes to use quantity over quality. Then it's a bit like the US vs Germany back in WW2, Germans had superior weaponry but could never match US industrial output that easily replaced what was lost. Ditto with Japan vs USA in WW2.

kwaigonegin said:

Bigger question is why? Even if Japan wins what exactly will it accomplished? At best it will be a phyrric victory at worst it will cause Japan to go into an economic collapsed and destabilizes the entire asian pacific region if not the world even if they win a technical war. Either way Abe will be run out of office. I honestly believe that this issue with the islands is as much an ego/national pride thing as it is a practical one. Unless the island themselves are made of gold and diamonds it is just not worth it IMHO but like said before there have been many many wars and battles fought in the past that stemmed from emotions and ego trip.

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Not unless Japan is using the islands as a pretext to strike the Chinese mainland. Not to occupy but to set the country back economically and industrially so Japan will still be #1 in Asia. Just look at how Israel plans and wants to strike Iran to set her back with her nuclear capability.

Re: Abe cites Thatcher reflections on Falklands war

Jeff Head said:

Well...what's a few years?

Certainly not in the next ten years. In that time Japan will have produced quite a few Akizuki class (6,800 ton VLS) AEGIS-like BMD escorts that are themselves very capable multi-role DDGs (they have already launched four of them and are about to commission the second) and will still have their six large AEGIS vessels (9-10,000 tons), the five Takanamis (6,400 tons VLS), the nine Murasamis (6,200 tons VLS), as well as the two Hyugas and two new, larger, 22DDH and 24DDH vessels probably capable of fixed-wing air aviation themselves. In the following years after that (another 6-8) they will probably have wings of F-35 aircraft operating off of those carriers.

So, though the odds in that same time period will have evened up significantly, to say that the JMSDF will have "zero" cance is too much a stretch IMHO over the next 15+ years. Particularly if the mutual defense treaty between Japan and the US continues to hold strong.

25-30 years? Now that may be a different matter altogether.

Having said all of that...IMHO, the Japanese would be crazy to push for war themselves now, or in the future. Responding to abject agression, yes...but to push a dispute like those Islands willfully to war with a nation like China, would be absolutely crazy. It is not likely that China is going to commit "abject agresssion," against Japan. So, even if Japan happend to be victorious at sea (which is no sure thing), they certainly would not "defeat," China and would only foster a simmering hot/cold war in the Western Pacific for years and years to come which would hurt them badly economically. They could not afford such a victory.

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Agree Jeff. But considering (in 2023), China's GDP would be 3-4x the Japanese, and it will be roughly the same as the USA. I doubt the Japanese would win, even with US navy help. The American attitude toward China would be different than now, would be friendlier ... I guess as in 2023, the military capability between China and the USA would be much less than now, especially in western pacific