Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Radar

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

MwRYum said:

Mind you, the current status quo puts China in the disadvantage, not the other way round, and Beijing react more than taking actions.

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Well absolutely, China is still ad a disadvantage wrt the Diaoyu Islands, but it is still a far better position than what China had to contend with until very recently, so it is certainly a step in the right direction as far as China is concerned. As with most things in life, the trick is to know oneself and the situation well so you know when to stop and consolidate your gains rather than over reach and suffer setbacks.

Now, this is a world when 4 JDAMs slam into a same building and you can still call it an "accident" (and get away with it), so I thought you know what I mean when I used quote-&-unquote on the "accidental discharge".

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The Americans only got away with that because China had not other option than to take their word for what happened. That will not be the case with any clash over the Diaoyu islands.

And think about this: even in modern times, limited warfare is always tempting whenever a state has serious domestic issues that the ruling government desperate to distract people from it - Argentina in the Falkland War proved that, Iraq invasion of Kuwait proved that as well;

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I believe you missed the most important caveat of that rule - the opponent must be so weak as to offer almost no military threat.

That was true wrt Iraq and Kuwait, and the Argentines likely thought it equally true when they invaded the Falklands because no one, not even Britain's closest friend and allie, America expect Britain to actually go to war or win given how much they had gutted their navy.

More recent examples would be like Libya and Mali, but take note that even the crumbling Syrian military holds enough threat to give the western powers pause to get involved.

For two peers like China and Japan, the military, economic and political costs of war with each other will be orders of magnitude greater than any populist boost they might expect to get from such a war, and that is why war is so unlikely.

War is far from inevitable, it is not even remotely likely.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

Well absolutely, China is still ad a disadvantage wrt the Diaoyu Islands, but it is still a far better position than what China had to contend with until very recently, so it is certainly a step in the right direction as far as China is concerned. As with most things in life, the trick is to know oneself and the situation well so you know when to stop and consolidate your gains rather than over reach and suffer setbacks.

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I wouldn't estimate it so. You assumption is that Chinese government really wanted to get Diaoyu back and would spare nothing short of a full-scale war to achieve that. But, rationally, there is no way DYT could worth what Japan and China is stacking on it now. In my opinion, CCP government was not active on DYT issue on purpose because it wasn't prepare to risk its hard-earned economic achievement with a uninhabitable piece of rock. But now, Japan had jumped gun with its "nationalization" and Chinese government is forced to the position it is now by its own domestic audience. The true winner of this situation is undoubtly the U.S. who are watching its two biggest economic rival at eath other's throat for a rock.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

ahadicow said:

I wouldn't estimate it so. You assumption is that Chinese government really wanted to get Diaoyu back and would spare nothing short of a full-scale war to achieve that. But, rationally, there is no way DYT could worth what Japan and China is stacking on it now. In my opinion, CCP government was not active on DYT issue on purpose because it wasn't prepare to risk its hard-earned economic achievement with a uninhabitable piece of rock. But now, Japan had jumped gun with its "nationalization" and Chinese government is forced to the position it is now by its own domestic audience. The true winner of this situation is undoubtly the U.S. who are watching its two biggest economic rival at eath other's throat for a rock.

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By supporting Japan the US hastens the escape of Taiwan and South Korea from their virtual resp. legal suzerainty. That is worth much more to China than those uninhabitable islands or their EEZ.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

ahadicow said:

I wouldn't estimate it so. You assumption is that Chinese government really wanted to get Diaoyu back and would spare nothing short of a full-scale war to achieve that. But, rationally, there is no way DYT could worth what Japan and China is stacking on it now. In my opinion, CCP government was not active on DYT issue on purpose because it wasn't prepare to risk its hard-earned economic achievement with a uninhabitable piece of rock. But now, Japan had jumped gun with its "nationalization" and Chinese government is forced to the position it is now by its own domestic audience. The true winner of this situation is undoubtly the U.S. who are watching its two biggest economic rival at eath other's throat for a rock.

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Wait what? How did you get that from what I wrote?

I do agree with you that previously, China was willing to let this issue rest for the sake of stability and economic development. I was Deng who put forward the suggestion that sovereignty of the islands would be left to later 'wiser' generations after all, but also because up until recently, the PLA was simply not remotely strong enough to think of taking on the Japanese militarily for the Islands.

However, five factors have conspired to change China's assessment of how to deal with the dispute.

First for foremost, the PLA has comprehensively modernised in recent years, and especially in the air, it now firmly has the upper hand. That provides Beijing with military options it previously never had. In addition, China's rapid economic emergence in recent decades have also given China hitherto undreamt of economic leverage. These two factors have given Chinese leaders far more options, leverage and confidence than ever before.

On the other side, there has been a resurgence of Japanese ultranationalism in recent years, partly stoked by China's rapid rise and the perceived threat that presents to Japan's security and interests, and also party due to a multitude of domestic calamities and scandals ranging from the natural (earth quakes and tsunamis) to economic (lost decades, deflation, trade and debt imbalances), social (ageing population), political (super-rapid turnover of leaders and the epic mishandling of the nuclear disaster), diplomatic (spat with and trying to distance itself from America) to security (nuclear north korea, rising China, territorial disputes with every one of it's immediate neighbours) etc.

All of this came to a head with the arrest of a Chinese boat in disputed waters after what looked like a deliberately engineered 'ramming' incident. The departure from previous unspoken convention and the highly engineered looking nature of the incident really got China's back up, and China flexed it's newfound economic diplomatic and economic muscle in response. It is unclear whether this response was exactly what the Japanese ultranationals who organised the incident wanted, or far more than what they bargained for, but the net effect was to send a massive seismic shock through Japanese government and society.

China is no longer the punching bag that Japan can bash with no cost or consequence. Not only could China push back, but it has shown a willingness to do push back when it feels it has been provoked.

The dispute could have just petered out at that, had the west not put its boot in.

By wading in and presenting the preposterous suggestion that Japan has a stronger claim to the disputed island because it had demonstrated 'effective control', not only was China's restraint and maturity in trying to put the dispute aside in the sake of stability and mutual benefit not acknowledged or rewarded in any way, it was actually used against China.

I think it is this act, more than anything, that has convinced the previous and current generation of Chinese leaders that the west does not care one little bit about 'international laws' and 'right and wrong', those are just tools the west uses to get its way. After all, not only did the west write the rules it expect the rest of the world to adhere to, but it also seems more than willing to pick and choose or even bend and break those rules when they get in the way of the west getting its way. The only thing the west really respect is might. If you are powerful, you can get your way whether your position has any merit or not, but if you are weak, don't expect to get anything your way not matter how legally or morally sound your position, especially when your interests clash with western interests of those of their allies and proxies.

I think China was preparing its new strategy ever since then, and Japan's purchase of 3 of the islands gave China the perfect pretext to apply this new strategy.

This new strategy can simply be summed up as, 'if the west only respects might and 'facts on the ground', then that is what they will get from China from now on'.

I think history will see the Diaoyu Island dispute as a major watershed moment in Chinese and world history. Up to that point, China's leaders were conflicted with the best way to engage with the west, either constructively or confrontational.

The west really need to sit down to look at how their words and actions are received by others, by putting themselves in the shoes of others and seeing how they would react to being treated the way they treat others. But thus far, there seems to be an almost wilful unwillingness on the part of mainstream western opinion to even consider examining their actions from a POV that is not their own. Until that happens, the west will always be perpetually perplexed as to how the rest of the world's reaction to their words and actions differ so much from what they expect, and much of their effort will prove to be massively counter-productive.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

As long as the Japanese maintain a firm believe they've the upper hand on all fronts, including superior naval and air power, unconditional backing from the West, specifically the US, Japanese investments held decisive sway in Chinese economy and stability, the only way to get them play nice and sit down for a good negotiation is through war.

If you take a good look at what kind of garbage spilled out from Japanese politicians, opinions on major circulation medias in Japan, the only direction is not peace but "man up", Japanese are now more and more itching for war, more and more pro-nuke, egging for a swift victory against a foe who's 10 years behind the curve, whereas they're best equipped and trained by the mightiest superpower on the planet.

It's nonsense to even think for a nano-second that China can resolve peacefully with such a foe, meanwhile Beijing is being pressurized internally and externally to go into a shooting war with Japan...Beijing's options are trickling down fast.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

I'll repeat my earlier question: how will China know when it controls the Diaoyu Islands and it was won the territorial dispute?

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

Geographer said:

I'll repeat my earlier question: how will China know when it controls the Diaoyu Islands and it was won the territorial dispute?

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Those are two different questions which may not have temporally coequal solutions. China will know when it controls DYT if it lands people there and Japan can only whine about it. China will know when it has won the territorial dispute when Japan acknowledges officially that DYT belongs to China. Why do you ask these questions?

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

Geographer said:

I'll repeat my earlier question: how will China know when it controls the Diaoyu Islands and it was won the territorial dispute?

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When China automatically arrests and jails any unauthorized foreign national who dares to get close or land on DYT.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

cn_habs said:

When China automatically arrests and jails any unauthorized foreign nationals who dares to get close or land on DYT.

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You mean: when it's the PAP Border Patrol troopers waiting at the rocky beaches of Diaoyu Island to arrest any Japanese activist came ashore, towing the impounded Japanese boats back to the nearest Chinese port, escort the cuffed-to-the-back "illegal aliens" ashore to the local detention center, slap them with charges of entry without visa, blab blab blab...and then deport them to the airport, to the hands of a deeply embarrassed Japanese embassy staff, for the next charter flight back to Japan.

Oh yes, all live on CCTV special bulletin.

And all the Japanese government could do is humbly plead for "humane treatment" to the activists...

Did I miss any details?

I must admit that's quite a pipe dream I just typed.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

China will know when it controls DYT if it lands people there and Japan can only whine about it.

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So you agree with you me that boots on the ground is the best way to demonstrate sovereignty?