Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Radar

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

adeptitus said:

Just my $.02. I don't believe in the oil and gas mantra. Just because the press repeats it 10,000 times won't make oil and gas deposits appear.

There are proven oil and gas deposits in the South China Sea -- off Malaysia's shores:

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How many decades have folks been looking for oil and gas around those islands, with nothing to show?

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China already put a deep water oil rig in the South China Sea.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

Equation said:

China already put a deep water oil rig in the South China Sea.

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The article specify 320 km SE of HK. This is most likely Liwan 3-1 or "block 29/26" which is East of Hainan. It's not anywhere near the disputed region.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

Equation said:

I can agree with you there, but what if both sides are conducting military drills (say amphibious landing exercises) on the DYT? That would further escalate the problems. That's why my whole argument is for Japan to stop trying to control the surrounding EZZ of the DYT and just hand it back to China. Japan using this DYT problem as a political pawn of the game won't gain them anything, unless they want better economic trade deals or something else with China.

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The Japanese have de-facto control over the islands, and many Japanese see the islands as being rightfully Japanese. Simply stopping patrolling of the area will not sit well with many Japanese citizens.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

Pointblank said:

The Japanese have de-facto control over the islands, and many Japanese see the islands as being rightfully Japanese. Simply stopping patrolling of the area will not sit well with many Japanese citizens.

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The Japanese will never willingly give up DYT without either a fight or the realization that they cannot hold it from China any longer, like the UK realized holding HK was no longer possible. The threshhold for this "realization" however will be much higher for Japan than for the UK, because at least there was no question that HK never really belonged to the British who were supposedly "leasing" HK from China, whereas many Japanese, especially ultranationalist Japanese, are (erroneously) of the opinion that DYT is actually Japanese territory. But in the end power talks, bulls**t walks. I'm hopeful for a bloodless end to the DYT dispute, and have no problem with China waiting decades for this to happen.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

Mysterre said:

The Japanese will never willingly give up DYT without either a fight or the realization that they cannot hold it from China any longer, like the UK realized holding HK was no longer possible. The threshhold for this "realization" however will be much higher for Japan than for the UK, because at least there was no question that HK never really belonged to the British who were supposedly "leasing" HK from China, whereas many Japanese, especially ultranationalist Japanese, are (erroneously) of the opinion that DYT is actually Japanese territory. But in the end power talks, bulls**t walks. I'm hopeful for a bloodless end to the DYT dispute, and have no problem with China waiting decades for this to happen.

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The longer-term dynamic at play here is that the islands are a symbol of US commitment to Asia-Pac.

From a strategic perspective, China would do well to simultaneously strengthen Japanese ultranationalists in the Japanese Diet, while goading them into taking increasingly extreme positions on not just DYT but also Dokdo and the Sakhalins, as well as Japanese wartime atrocities. The end goal is to push Japan into becoming a pariah state vis a vis Russia, Taiwan, and South Korea, which converts the US-Japan alliance into a millstone across the neck of the United States.

It would be really awesome for China if Japanese ultranationalists started pulling the kind of stunts they used to do in the 60s and 70s, like , re-affirming Japanese supremacy over "other Asian races", , and . Nowadays, all they do is annoy people with their sound trucks, although sometimes they do man up and .

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

MwRYum said:

But you do know with neither side can afford the repercussion of backing down, escalation is the only path; and you should be familiar with the term "accidental discharge of weapons" too. Like it or not, this "Mexican standoff" status quo can't last forever, some hotheads on either side will eventually make another move to make each side man up and before you know it, Japan and China goes to war.

It's not a matter of "if" but a matter of "when".

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Maintaining the status quo is not technically backing down. Sometimes a country is better off by watching how the other reacts. Germany in 1914 technically had the chance to use diplomacy even when they had the upper hand militarily.

Accidental discharges really shouldn't happen in this day and age; we aren't living during the age of pitched battles anymore.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

SinoSoldier said:

Maintaining the status quo is not technically backing down. Sometimes a country is better off by watching how the other reacts. Germany in 1914 technically had the chance to use diplomacy even when they had the upper hand militarily.

Accidental discharges really shouldn't happen in this day and age; we aren't living during the age of pitched battles anymore.

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Mind you, the current status quo puts China in the disadvantage, not the other way round, and Beijing react more than taking actions.

Now, this is a world when 4 JDAMs slam into a same building and you can still call it an "accident" (and get away with it), so I thought you know what I mean when I used quote-&-unquote on the "accidental discharge".

And think about this: even in modern times, limited warfare is always tempting whenever a state has serious domestic issues that the ruling government desperate to distract people from it - Argentina in the Falkland War proved that, Iraq invasion of Kuwait proved that as well; and now, both Beijing and Tokyo has their own cans of worms to deal with at home, a limited war against a traditional nemesis? That's like dangling a big chunky juicy meat in front of famished lions, alas those 2 lions are holding back by chains...

The thing is, how long will those chains hold? Whose chain will break first? Please don't harbor anymore illusion that this can be resolve peacefully, the only resolution available is through war.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

the only resolution available is through war.

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The only resolution that satisfy greed, pride and murderous contempt all at once is through war.

Always been true.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

Mysterre said:

The Japanese will never willingly give up DYT without either a fight or the realization that they cannot hold it from China any longer, like the UK realized holding HK was no longer possible. The threshhold for this "realization" however will be much higher for Japan than for the UK, because at least there was no question that HK never really belonged to the British who were supposedly "leasing" HK from China, whereas many Japanese, especially ultranationalist Japanese, are (erroneously) of the opinion that DYT is actually Japanese territory. But in the end power talks, bulls**t walks. I'm hopeful for a bloodless end to the DYT dispute, and have no problem with China waiting decades for this to happen.

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Do you realise actually the British owned HK. Yes the British leased NT for 99 years but not HK. Deng did manage/"force" the British to hand over HK and NT ... remember it was in 1980s (the agreement) when China was relatively weak.

Re: Japanese Defence Minister: Helicopter & DDG "locked on" by Chinese Frigates' Ra

Pointblank said:

The Japanese have de-facto control over the islands, and many Japanese see the islands as being rightfully Japanese. Simply stopping patrolling of the area will not sit well with many Japanese citizens.

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I highly doubt that this is how the majority of Japanese citizens feel. Japan may not have officially atoned enough for their violent expansionist past and constantly plays it down, but the majority of Japanese people know enough about history to not feel that the Diaoyus/Senkakus are 'rightfully Japanese territory'. We are only talking about the Diaoyus/Senkakus, not even the Ryukyu islands which used to be an independent kingdom and a Chinese protectorate before Japan took them over.