The defense budget has been rising. Its not going to be 50 billion each year for 15 years. Its going to keep going up, 52, 53, 55, 57, 58, 60... by year 15, it might be 70 billion USD. Additionally, cabinet meetings discussing the direction for long term plan quoted NATO level expenditure average of around 1.3. So it may go to 80 billion USD. If the argument comes back to "economy is too weak" well look at Russia, spending 5% GDP with low growth rate. Japan going to just 2% would mean 110 billion USD.
PRC opened up a can of worms with claims on Senkaku islands and Taiwan and 9 dash line.
Yes, Japan doubling military spending from 1% to 2% of GDP would mean an increase from $55B to $110B
But then what?
If we use PPP numbers for military spending, China is already at $540B (2% of GDP).
And if you're looking at 15 years in the future, Japan is already a wealthy, developed economy, but with a slowly declining population.
In comparison, 5% growth means the Chinese economy would be double the size.
That would imply Chinese military spending of $1080B, given 2% of GDP.
And in the past 2 years, we've have seen a huge increase in Chinese naval warship construction, which directly impacts Japan.
It looks like China will be adding a Japan-sized navy every 4 years for some time in the future.
But this isn't because of anything Japan has done.
It's the fallout from an actively hostile US policy towards China.
Japan is just a pawn in the competition between the US and China.
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Technically, the PRC inherited the 9 dash claim from Taiwan (ROC).
And Taiwan (ROC) also claims the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands against Japan.
Plus Taiwan (ROC) still claims to be the sole legitimate government of mainland China as well.
It's just a mess.
