lcloo
Captain
J15T are interim fighter jets, thus its number will depends on when will J35 starts to enter PLAN service. By 2035, we will see at least 3 aircraft carriers, and if the 4th CV's construction has started as rumoured, probably the 4th carrier will be in service too.So as everyone tracking this thread is probably already aware of, SAC's twin engine 6th gen fighter was revealed publicly on December 26, 2024, if not earlier.
The general or at least default consensus thus far is that while the CAC 6th gen aircraft will be too big for carrier operations, a carrier version of the SAC 6th gen fighter will emerge.
Obviously, we don't know exactly when that will happen, but it's reasonable to project that this will occur by 2035 considering the timelines of the J-20, J-35 and J-15 programs.
If that's the case, just how many navalized J-35s will enter service, especially with the J-15T in production, and the SAC 6th gen fighter "around the corner?"
If J35 starts to enter service in 2026, the production for J15T might be less than 50, similar to J10B's production.
This is my guess (not including helicopters and trainer jets):-
CV16 - 8X J15T and 16X J35 and UCAV (likely it will be navalised GJ-11)
CV17 - 8X J15T and 16X J35 and UCAV
CV18 - 16X J15T and 32X J35 and UCAV
CV19 - 16X J15T and 48X J35 and UCAV
Original J15 will be retired or re-assigned to training base. Also there may be a few training regiment of J35 in training base and on stanby for rotation.
So probably there will be around 50 J15T and 150 to 200 J35 by the year 2035. Bear in mind this is just a guess.