J-35 carrier fighter (PLAN) thread

[Blitzo]

I see what you are saying but, Saudi wants to invest $100B in their aerospace industry in the next 8 years..

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And 2 years ago Biden was calling MBS a butcher or something like that.

Regarding the RISK you described, the REWARD is export sales.

We currently do not have any evidence or rumours to suggest that the expected land based J-XY/35 variant is intended for an export launch customer.
Instead, the rumours of the land based J-XY/35 variant has been spoken of as being intended for the PLA.

Until we receive evidence or rumours to the contrary, there is no reasonable basis for us to speculate that the land based J-XY/35 variant is intended for an export launch customer rather than the PLA.

In the future, an export variant of the land based J-XY/35 variant could be developed fairly easily. But we have no basis to believe that the aircraft we expect in the imminent future is intended primarily for export, and every basis to believe it is for the PLA.




As for Saudi wanting to invest in their aerospace industry, great.
I'm sure that if they are interested, China has a number of aerospace products now and into the future that they can export to Saudi Arabia with some transfer of production, industry and technology. That might also include a future export variant of the land based J-XY/35 variant that will first enter service with the PLA.

But as written above, there is no basis to suggest that the land based J-XY/35 variant we are expecting in the imminent future is intended for Saudi Arabia (or any other foreign nation) as a launch customer.



========

I must have missed this but where is the rumor that a land based J-XY/35 variant will have first flight this year?

It was Huitong who wrote it on his website, which was then noted and quoted here.

However, for the last year or so to now, the land based J-XY/35 variant has been expected to emerge in the near future as well.
That is to say, the "land based J-XY/35 variant" didn't just come out of nowhere -- it's been talked about for the last two years or so (at least), and in the last year or so it has been spoken of as an expectant aircraft that is on the horizon/imminent.

 

[Andy1974]

We currently do not have any evidence or rumours to suggest that the expected land based J-XY/35 variant is intended for an export launch customer.
Instead, the rumours of the land based J-XY/35 variant has been spoken of as being intended for the PLA.

Until we receive evidence or rumours to the contrary, there is no reasonable basis for us to speculate that the land based J-XY/35 variant is intended for an export launch customer rather than the PLA.

In the future, an export variant of the land based J-XY/35 variant could be developed fairly easily. But we have no basis to believe that the aircraft we expect in the imminent future is intended primarily for export, and every basis to believe it is for the PLA.




As for Saudi wanting to invest in their aerospace industry, great.
I'm sure that if they are interested, China has a number of aerospace products now and into the future that they can export to Saudi Arabia with some transfer of production, industry and technology. That might also include a future export variant of the land based J-XY/35 variant that will first enter service with the PLA.

But as written above, there is no basis to suggest that the land based J-XY/35 variant we are expecting in the imminent future is intended for Saudi Arabia (or any other foreign nation) as a launch customer.



========



It was Huitong who wrote it on his website, which was then noted and quoted here.

However, for the last year or so to now, the land based J-XY/35 variant has been expected to emerge in the near future as well.
That is to say, the "land based J-XY/35 variant" didn't just come out of nowhere -- it's been talked about for the last two years or so (at least), and in the last year or so it has been spoken of as an expectant aircraft that is on the horizon/imminent.

I disagree that here is no basis to suggest this, because we have the manufacturer publicly stating that this is for export, with ToT and local production, this is unprecedented. We have a hypothesized client, which for various reasons is extremely well suited for that deal.

And would we actually expect rumors for a development like this before the official announcement? I don’t think so, this could be kept fully under wraps and would be a surprise like the Solomons islands agreement was. So, it’s kind of reasonable, imo, but maybe pointless to suggest until more developments, which seem to be coming to a head soon.

Of course, no matter what happens, I agree the PLA will produce their own land based version according to their own requirements, and I agree the longer the client waits the less production risk there is for them, but who knows, perhaps the PLA prefer a WS13 engined line in Saudi before their WS19 one in China.

 

[stannislas]

It was Huitong who wrote it on his website, which was then noted and quoted here.

Huitong's blog is valuable, and a good place for collective information, but none of those were original and he did quote some nonsense rumors from time to time. Don't trust every single line of word there, especially the one without pictures...

However, for the last year or so to now, the land based J-XY/35 variant has been expected to emerge in the near future as well.
That is to say, the "land based J-XY/35 variant" didn't just come out of nowhere -- it's been talked about for the last two years or so (at least), and in the last year or so it has been spoken of as an expectant aircraft that is on the horizon/imminent.

Yes, but again, on what occiasion and most importantly, who said that? Far as I can record, none of the 'credible source' has confirmed anything regarding the land base J-35/XY, unless you can provide one...

In fact, what I can remember is that this rumor (land base J-31 V3 or J-35/XY now) is part of the rumor that PLA was holding a 5th gen carrier based fighter competation, which was to counter the rumor of carrier based J-20. Now we know, 5th gen carrier based fighter competation is true, and was highly likely both rumors are true as well, AT THAT TIME.

But, whether this rumor still hold true is open for debate, for me it's like, now carrier based J-20 rumor is die out due to the new green J-35/XY, and the orignal J-35 land base rumor just carry on and its supporters get more excited on this 'victory'and speard more rumors on their wishful thinking.

The issue is that, there is no logical connection from carrier based J-35 to a land based J-35, in fact there are multiple occasions that Yankee and Shilao stated that, according to PLA internal estimation, 5th gen Medium/Light fighter is not going to be a lot cheaper than J-20, in fact their price and maintaince cost should be fairly close, and this is main argurment for PLAAF to adapt the land base J-35/XY in Chinese community.

So there is a good chance we might see a FC-31 V4.0 based on current J-35/XY by SAC in the future, but that does not mean PLAAF is going to buy it.

 

[Blitzo]

Huitong's blog is valuable, and a good place for collective information, but none of those were original and he did quote some nonsense rumors from time to time. Don't trust every single line of word there, especially the one without pictures...

Jason_ was asking where the rumour of the land based J-XY/35 variant making its first flight was posted, I merely provided him an answer as to where it was mentioned earlier in the thread.

Yes, but again, on what occiasion and most importantly, who said that? Far as I can record, none of the 'credible source' has confirmed anything regarding the land base J-35/XY, unless you can provide one...

In fact, what I can remember is that this rumor (land base J-31 V3 or J-35/XY now) is part of the rumor that PLA was holding a 5th gen carrier based fighter competation, which was to counter the rumor of carrier based J-20. Now we know, 5th gen carrier based fighter competation is true, and was highly likely both rumors are true as well, AT THAT TIME.

But, whether this rumor still hold true is open for debate, for me it's like, now carrier based J-20 rumor is die out due to the new green J-35/XY, and the orignal J-35 land base rumor just carry on and its supporters get more excited on this 'victory'and speard more rumors on their wishful thinking.

The issue is that, there is no logical connection from carrier based J-35 to a land based J-35, in fact there are multiple occasions that Yankee and Shilao stated that, according to PLA internal estimation, 5th gen Medium/Light fighter is not going to be a lot cheaper than J-20, in fact their price and maintaince cost should be fairly close, and this is main argurment for PLAAF to adapt the land base J-35/XY in Chinese community.

So there is a good chance we might see a FC-31 V4.0 based on current J-35/XY by SAC in the future, but that does not mean PLAAF is going to buy it.

I'm aware of the trade offs of a medium weight 5th generation fighter versus a heavy weight 5th generation fighter, and that it is a matter of debate as to how much cheaper (if any) the operating costs of a medium versus heavy weight fighter will be.


My impression is that at the time, about a year and a bit ago, we started getting rumours that a land based J-XY/35 variant was a thing, with hints it was for the PLAAF as well (see below), and with rumours continuing more recently that a static frame was transported for testing, and expectancy of a maiden flight this year.
The trend lines are not consistent with an aircraft that is not being pursued.

Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

The writing is on the wall for the naval fighter.

www.sinodefenceforum.com

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1379334620500611074

I think the resistance to this idea of a land based J-XY/35 for the PLAAF is because perhaps logically or intuitively, it is thought not to make sense. On some level I understand this. A few years ago I only thought from that perspective as well.
But I think that is not a useful singular approach now, I think at this point in time, perhaps it is time to start thinking about why procuring a land based J-XY/35 for the PLAAF might make sense.

 

[sferrin]

Jason_ was asking where the rumour of the land based J-XY/35 variant making its first flight was posted, I merely provided him an answer as to where it was mentioned earlier in the thread.




I'm aware of the trade offs of a medium weight 5th generation fighter versus a heavy weight 5th generation fighter, and that it is a matter of debate as to how much cheaper (if any) the operating costs of a medium versus heavy weight fighter will be.


My impression is that at the time, about a year and a bit ago, we started getting rumours that a land based J-XY/35 variant was a thing, with hints it was for the PLAAF as well (see below), and with rumours continuing more recently that a static frame was transported for testing, and expectancy of a maiden flight this year.
The trend lines are not consistent with an aircraft that is not being pursued.

Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

The writing is on the wall for the naval fighter.

www.sinodefenceforum.com

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1379334620500611074

I think the resistance to this idea of a land based J-XY/35 for the PLAAF is because perhaps logically or intuitively, it is thought not to make sense. On some level I understand this. A few years ago I only thought from that perspective as well.
But I think that is not a useful singular approach now, I think at this point in time, perhaps it is time to start thinking about why procuring a land based J-XY/35 for the PLAAF might make sense.

As a replacement for the J-10 if nothing else.

 

[Blitzo]

I disagree that here is no basis to suggest this, because we have the manufacturer publicly stating that this is for export, with ToT and local production, this is unprecedented. We have a hypothesized client, which for various reasons is extremely well suited for that deal.

And would we actually expect rumors for a development like this before the official announcement? I don’t think so, this could be kept fully under wraps and would be a surprise like the Solomons islands agreement was. So, it’s kind of reasonable, imo, but maybe pointless to suggest until more developments, which seem to be coming to a head soon.

Of course, no matter what happens, I agree the PLA will produce their own land based version according to their own requirements, and I agree the longer the client waits the less production risk there is for them, but who knows, perhaps the PLA prefer a WS13 engined line in Saudi before their WS19 one in China.

We absolutely would expect rumours for a deal as monumental as this before its official announcement.

This isn't a small fine print condition as part of a new nation to nation agreement -- this is a new major aerospace industrial partnership with material and industrial milestones that need to be achieved, some of which already would have been achieved at this stage, yet we have no hints of anything.


The manufacturer has publicly stated that FC-31 is for export, etc before as well -- yet no one has bought it. Why do we think that the land based J-XY/35 is proof that someone has bought it, which brings with it all of the complexities of being the launch customer of a new variant?
Wouldn't it make more sense that the aircraft instead is for the PLA, considering that is what has been rumoured about it?

 

[reservior dogs]

Jason_ was asking where the rumour of the land based J-XY/35 variant making its first flight was posted, I merely provided him an answer as to where it was mentioned earlier in the thread.




I'm aware of the trade offs of a medium weight 5th generation fighter versus a heavy weight 5th generation fighter, and that it is a matter of debate as to how much cheaper (if any) the operating costs of a medium versus heavy weight fighter will be.


My impression is that at the time, about a year and a bit ago, we started getting rumours that a land based J-XY/35 variant was a thing, with hints it was for the PLAAF as well (see below), and with rumours continuing more recently that a static frame was transported for testing, and expectancy of a maiden flight this year.
The trend lines are not consistent with an aircraft that is not being pursued.

Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

The writing is on the wall for the naval fighter.

www.sinodefenceforum.com

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1379334620500611074

I think the resistance to this idea of a land based J-XY/35 for the PLAAF is because perhaps logically or intuitively, it is thought not to make sense. On some level I understand this. A few years ago I only thought from that perspective as well.
But I think that is not a useful singular approach now, I think at this point in time, perhaps it is time to start thinking about why procuring a land based J-XY/35 for the PLAAF might make sense.

Yes, the key is the engines. The Chinese must develop the WS-19 engines for a variety of applications, including the carrier version of J-35. A land based J-35 would also pull in export market. This would add scale to the WS-19 development. Since the land based J-35 should be quite incremental having done the carrier version, it make a lot of sense to add it, even if the cost is similar to the J-20.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

I think the resistance to this idea of a land based J-XY/35 for the PLAAF is because perhaps logically or intuitively, it is thought not to make sense. On some level I understand this. A few years ago I only thought from that perspective as well.
But I think that is not a useful singular approach now, I think at this point in time, perhaps it is time to start thinking about why procuring a land based J-XY/35 for the PLAAF might make sense.

Do you already have some ideas for why it might make sense?

Also there's another thing I thought about, which is apparantly material research including composite materials have advanced quite a lot in China, and I remember videos I believe lamenting that the J10 was build a bit 'too early' could this also somewhat be the case for the J20 as well?
(So the land based J-XY/35 for PLAAF could potentially both be cheaper to procure and maintain than the J20? maybe?)

Also another point, would getting the land based variant for the PLAAF also be a way to share the development cost of the J-XY/35 in general? (this kinda questions how many would be made for the PLAN I suppose, but do we have an idea of that?)

 

[Blitzo]

Do you already have some ideas for why it might make sense?

Also there's another thing I thought about, which is apparantly material research including composite materials have advanced quite a lot in China, and I remember videos I believe lamenting that the J10 was build a bit 'too early' could this also somewhat be the case for the J20 as well?
(So the land based J-XY/35 for PLAAF could potentially both be cheaper to procure and maintain than the J20? maybe?)

Also another point, would getting the land based variant for the PLAAF also be a way to share the development cost of the J-XY/35 in general? (this kinda questions how many would be made for the PLAN I suppose, but do we have an idea of that?)

This, again, is probably better suited to the future PLA fighter fleet thread, where I also have articulated my thoughts on it in a past post:

Future PLA combat aircraft composition

And yes, what you described -- a "worse" J-20, with commonality with the navy, and a larger production run, more maintainable stealth, more advanced production method -- sounds like a hell of an aircraft to me, especially as such an aircraft would not need the additional development time needed...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

My reasoning for why a land based J-XY/35 for the PLAAF could be reasonable largely is the same as what I espoused at that time.


And please continue the discussion about orbat and cost/benefit comparisons of respective future fighter types in that thread.

 

[weig2000]

It was Huitong who wrote it on his website, which was then noted and quoted here.

However, for the last year or so to now, the land based J-XY/35 variant has been expected to emerge in the near future as well.
That is to say, the "land based J-XY/35 variant" didn't just come out of nowhere -- it's been talked about for the last two years or so (at least), and in the last year or so it has been spoken of as an expectant aircraft that is on the horizon/imminent.

Assuming the rumors were not completely groundless, an alternative explanation is that SAC has indeed been working on a land based variant, or more precisely, FC-31 V3.0, aiming to attract interest from PLAAF and/or export customers. It is fundamentally in the interest of SAC to do so, since the naval orders of J-XY/J-35 are unlikely to be large enough. Well, SAC has been working arduously on V1.0 and V2.0 since forever, why not continue on a V3.0, now that PLAN has officially accepted J-XY/J-35 giving them a much needed boost in confidence and chance?

I'd be much more comfortable with the above explanation than that of PLAAF committing to a land based variant at this point in time.