J-35 carrier fighter (PLAN) thread

[Gloire_bb]

Meanwhile, the J-35's R&D focus should be to answer the urgent demand by the PLAN for a carrier-based 5th-generation fighter, as per stated above from Shilao's podcast. Land variant of the J-35 can be dealt with afterwards.

Is it that urgent though?
001 class carrier will benefit from diversification of the group, but ... probably less than 003. Matter of airwing size, if anything.
Furthermore, we're talking about just two "medium" carriers. i.e. carriers as a class are underrepresented in PLAN to matter that much in the first place. UK has two for 6 AA destroyers(which is stupidly low, but you see the point). China has a similar number of 055 class des...cruisers for its pair, and number of destroyers differs almost by an order of magnitude.

003 ... it'll probably take no less than 4-5 years for 003 to reach FOC.

 

[Blitzo]

So, this is the current situation for the FC-31, J-XY/35 family IMO..

When we talk about "land based J-XY/35 variant" we are talking about a whole new aircraft variant. We don't know if it will be definitely derived from J-XY/35, or derived from FC-31 V2. But it is expected to emerge some time this year/soon.

We do not yet have a handy stand in designation for the "land based J-XY/35 variant".

 

[Andy1974]

So, this is the current situation for the FC-31, J-XY/35 family IMO..

When we talk about "land based J-XY/35 variant" we are talking about a whole new aircraft variant. We don't know if it will be definitely derived from J-XY/35, or derived from FC-31 V2. But it is expected to emerge some time this year/soon.

We do not yet have a handy stand in designation for the "land based J-XY/35 variant".


View attachment 86530

Great summary. I wonder how much the actual PLAAFs requirements are driving the land based variants development versus potential export clients. As this version is being offered around the Middle East with ToT and local production.

You could argue that the export market is a major reason for this versions existence, as each one of these sold is an F35 that will never exist and money the US MIC will never see. It will also eliminate future sales because of the ToT.

If the land version is truly to take on the F35 in the export market, then it surely must be optimized fully for the role, which hints at an airframe based on FC31 v2. Of course with as much commonality with the carrier based variant and the new J20’s.

President Xi’s potential upcoming trip to Saudi Arabia might be an eye opener in this regard.

 

[Richard Santos]

What is the direct evidence the prototype that first flew last year is indeed the carrier and not the land version? It seems to have no catapult tow bar, and also one might think the tail hook should be visible below the extreme tail?

 

[Blitzo]

Great summary. I wonder how much the actual PLAAFs requirements are driving the land based variants development versus potential export clients. As this version is being offered around the Middle East with ToT and local production.

You could argue that the export market is a major reason for this versions existence, as each one of these sold is an F35 that will never exist and money the US MIC will never see. It will also eliminate future sales because of the ToT.

If the land version is truly to take on the F35 in the export market, then it surely must be optimized fully for the role, which hints at an airframe based on FC31 v2. Of course with as much commonality with the carrier based variant and the new J20’s.

President Xi’s potential upcoming trip to Saudi Arabia might be an eye opener in this regard.

I don't think the land based variant is primarily being driven by export prospects.

Developing a new fighter is expensive and consuming of aerospace resources, meaning you generally speaking need a launch customer who is willing to pay for said development and buy it in a not-u substantial number.

For a proper 5th generation fighter like this, you certainly will need a launch customer -- you can't simply approach it with a perspective of "finish it, and customers will come".
That is the primary reason why the FC-31 as a proposal was never picked up by any customers -- no sane nation would choose to fund full scale development of a project as complex as a 5th generation, with themselves as the launch customer, and no one else operating it.

Given we are expecting the land based variant to fly sometime this year, chances are it has been in the works for a little while. And we have not heard anything about a launch export customer that has significantly financially committed itself to it. (I suppose it is possible that such a deal could be made in high levels of strategic secrecy, but for something of this scale, I doubt it)
If anything, PLA service has been spoken of as its primary destination.

That is to say, I think the launch customer for the land based variant will be the PLA, likely PLAAF.

However, I do think the export prospect for this family of aircraft is decent -- that is to say, I expect an export or "E" variant of the land based J-XY/35 to emerge. Such an aircraft will likely only emerge after the PLA has begun to take on such an aircraft in decent quantities, and would likely have a number of key sensitive subsystems replaced for export purposes (perhaps with some customer specific modifications as well).
An export variant of an aircraft that the PLA has operated in numbers -- meaning it will have PLA funded development and testing of the aircraft, it will enjoy an extensive and long duration of support, upgrades and logistics being guaranteed, and overall massively reduced risks and costs, compared to an export customer choosing to go it alone at first.

 

[Blitzo]

What is the direct evidence the prototype that first flew last year is indeed the carrier and not the land version? It seems to have no catapult tow bar, and also one might think the tail hook should be visible below the extreme tail?

What do you think is more likely, that everyone in this thread and on this forum talking about the aircraft have collectively either hallucinated, or worse, lost rationality and common sense for assessing imagery evidence... or that you haven't inspected the images closely enough?

But sure, why not? Perhaps people new to PLA watching and military watching in general might find this useful.
See the three pictures below, where I've highlighted:
Red circle -- catapult launch bar
Yellow circle -- wing fold line

Those things are only present for carrier compatible aircraft.

As for the tailhook, he angles of the images we've had so far have not been sufficient for us to visualize the tailhook. As a twin engine aircraft, the tailhook will likely be between the ventral recess of the two engines, and as a stealth aircraft it will likely be quite low profile as well and enclosed (thus difficult to see).
Additionally, it is also possible that the tailhook might not be installed on the lead prototype for its initial flights (which is the pictures that we have of it so far).

Either way, we have definitive evidence of the catapult launch bar and the wing fold line, so yes, we do have "direct evidence" that this is the carrier compatible J-XY/35.

 

[Andy1974]

I don't think the land based variant is primarily being driven by export prospects.

Developing a new fighter is expensive and consuming of aerospace resources, meaning you generally speaking need a launch customer who is willing to pay for said development and buy it in a not-u substantial number.

For a proper 5th generation fighter like this, you certainly will need a launch customer -- you can't simply approach it with a perspective of "finish it, and customers will come".
That is the primary reason why the FC-31 as a proposal was never picked up by any customers -- no sane nation would choose to fund full scale development of a project as complex as a 5th generation, with themselves as the launch customer, and no one else operating it.

Given we are expecting the land based variant to fly sometime this year, chances are it has been in the works for a little while. And we have not heard anything about a launch export customer that has significantly financially committed itself to it. (I suppose it is possible that such a deal could be made in high levels of strategic secrecy, but for something of this scale, I doubt it)
If anything, PLA service has been spoken of as its primary destination.

That is to say, I think the launch customer for the land based variant will be the PLA, likely PLAAF.

However, I do think the export prospect for this family of aircraft is decent -- that is to say, I expect an export or "E" variant of the land based J-XY/35 to emerge. Such an aircraft will likely only emerge after the PLA has begun to take on such an aircraft in decent quantities, and would likely have a number of key sensitive subsystems replaced for export purposes (perhaps with some customer specific modifications as well).
An export variant of an aircraft that the PLA has operated in numbers -- meaning it will have PLA funded development and testing of the aircraft, it will enjoy an extensive and long duration of support, upgrades and logistics being guaranteed, and overall massively reduced risks and costs, compared to an export customer choosing to go it alone at first.

I think a lot has changed recently which makes some of these assumptions not as solid as they once were…

For one, we know the development cost of the land variant will be reduced due to commonality of subsystems and existing learnings from PLAN.

Second, new breakthroughs in airframe design and construction have been reported here a lot. This means a new factory could be set up much quicker than before and production should be simplified because of the latest construction tech. Airframes can be locally printed and assembled on site and subsystems shipped in ready for integration, this negates the need for large scale PLA production prior to setting up a foreign production base, and it also somewhat negates the need for large production runs.

Third, we assume that China will only export downgraded versions of kit, but that has been a failed strategy for the US in the Middle East when attempting to sell F35s. China will have no problems keeping their gear separate from US gear, they will just build new and fantastic airbases. Let’s not underestimate the power of Technology Transfer to entice a sale.

Finally, there are plenty of not quite fully sane countries that might take a punt on this, of course Saudi stands far above any others, but there is also UAE, Indonesia, Russia, Egypt, Morocco and Iran. If any of these bite they could export to the others as well as smaller countries.

I am suggesting they rapidly set up a foreign production base and start pumping them out at China speed, I’d be looking at satellite photos of Saudi to look for new factory and airbase construction if I had the ability.

 

[Blitzo]

I think a lot has changed recently which makes some of these assumptions not as solid as they once were…

For one, we know the development cost of the land variant will be reduced due to commonality of subsystems and existing learnings from PLAN.

Second, new breakthroughs in airframe design and construction have been reported here a lot. This means a new factory could be set up much quicker than before and production should be simplified because of the latest construction tech. Airframes can be locally printed and assembled on site and subsystems shipped in ready for integration, this negates the need for large scale PLA production prior to setting up a foreign production base, and it also somewhat negates the need for large production runs.

Third, we assume that China will only export downgraded versions of kit, but that has been a failed strategy for the US in the Middle East when attempting to sell F35s. China will have no problems keeping their gear separate from US gear, they will just build new and fantastic airbases. Let’s not underestimate the power of Technology Transfer to entice a sale.

Finally, there are plenty of not quite fully sane countries that might take a punt on this, of course Saudi stands far above any others, but there is also UAE, Indonesia, Russia, Egypt, Morocco and Iran. If any of these bite they could export to the others as well as smaller countries.

I am suggesting they rapidly set up a foreign production base and start pumping them out at China speed, I’d be looking at satellite photos of Saudi to look for new factory and airbase construction if I had the ability.

Hypothetically speaking, if a rich overseas customer was willing to pay exorbitant amounts of money for it, and if the PLA is willing to allow AVIC/SAC to dedicate that amount of their aerospace resources for an overseas customer, then sure, the idea of a land variant of J-XY/35 being developed with an overseas customer being the launch export customer, is plausible.
It will be painful, expensive, and be a massive industrial undertaking for the export customer, but sure, it's "plausible".

But I think you are viewing this in a manner of "is it technically possible for the land based variant to be for export as a launch customer?" rather than "looking at the basis of evidence, rumours, and timelines, who is the launch customer likely to realistically be?".

Let's review what we know:
1. The land based variant is expected to make its maiden flight sometime this year in 2022, meaning its development should have been actively going on for the last two years or so, even as a derivative of the carrier based J-XY/35.
2. We do not have any evidence or rumours of any overseas customer being interested in properly pursuing the FC-31 or J-XY/35, or any derivative thereof, since it emerged, and certainly nothing of any sort of contract being signed. We do not have any Chinese language rumours to that effect either.
3. The land based variant of J-XY/35 has been rumoured to be intended for the PLA.


.... given the above, I don't think we can humour the idea that the expectd/imminent land based variant is for an export launch customer.
It just doesn't match any of the information that we have, which if anything is directly contradictory to the idea that it is for export.



====

But let's be realistic.

No export customer is going to buy FC-31 or J-XY/35 variant as a lone launch customer, unless the PLA buys first. The costs and risks are just too high, and even oil rich countries in the Middle East know this.
If we want to talk about potential export prospects, the most likely path will be a dedicated export cleared variant of the land based J-XY/35 variant after the PLA has bought it and already operates it.
Export customers will be able to take advantage of a product whose development that the PLA has already paid for, with the risks already accounted for, and with an expansive logistics and support network to be able to have their own aircraft leverage off.
None of the industrial risk, and no upfront developmental costs -- only procurement and sustainment costs, which is what most nations want.
Perhaps if you were a nation that wanted to rapidly advance your aerospace industry to be able to produce 5th generation aircraft, then perhaps it would make sense.... but even then, why wouldn't you simply wait for the PLA to buy the land based J-XY/35 variant first, and then express an interest in buying it with co-production and a degree of transfer of technology? Why embark on the additional risk and cost of trying to be the launch customer for a new variant of an aircraft?
(Hint, this is the major reason why the F/A-18L -- the land based variant of the F/A-18A -- never hooked a customer, because no prospective export customer wanted to be the one to front up the costs and risk of developing a new variant, and because Northrop themselves weren't willing to front up the costs, and the US was not buying the F/A-18L either. With no one willing to pay for the full scale development of the aircraft, it simply withered and disappeared, and even customers interested in the F/A-18L proposal simply bought the lower risk F/A-18A with minimal or no modifications from the standard USN version, retaining the folding wings, reinforced structure and landing gear and everything else)

Adapting my previous overview, it would look like this (green, bottom right corner):

 

[Jason_]

I must have missed this but where is the rumor that a land based J-XY/35 variant will have first flight this year?

 

[Andy1974]

Hypothetically speaking, if a rich overseas customer was willing to pay exorbitant amounts of money for it, and if the PLA is willing to allow AVIC/SAC to dedicate that amount of their aerospace resources for an overseas customer, then sure, the idea of a land variant of J-XY/35 being developed with an overseas customer being the launch export customer, is plausible.
It will be painful, expensive, and be a massive industrial undertaking for the export customer, but sure, it's "plausible".

But I think you are viewing this in a manner of "is it technically possible for the land based variant to be for export as a launch customer?" rather than "looking at the basis of evidence, rumours, and timelines, who is the launch customer likely to realistically be?".

Let's review what we know:
1. The land based variant is expected to make its maiden flight sometime this year in 2022, meaning its development should have been actively going on for the last two years or so, even as a derivative of the carrier based J-XY/35.
2. We do not have any evidence or rumours of any overseas customer being interested in properly pursuing the FC-31 or J-XY/35, or any derivative thereof, since it emerged, and certainly nothing of any sort of contract being signed. We do not have any Chinese language rumours to that effect either.
3. The land based variant of J-XY/35 has been rumoured to be intended for the PLA.


.... given the above, I don't think we can humour the idea that the expectd/imminent land based variant is for an export launch customer.
It just doesn't match any of the information that we have, which if anything is directly contradictory to the idea that it is for export.



====

But let's be realistic.

No export customer is going to buy FC-31 or J-XY/35 variant as a lone launch customer, unless the PLA buys first. The costs and risks are just too high, and even oil rich countries in the Middle East know this.
If we want to talk about potential export prospects, the most likely path will be a dedicated export cleared variant of the land based J-XY/35 variant after the PLA has bought it and already operates it.
Export customers will be able to take advantage of a product whose development that the PLA has already paid for, with the risks already accounted for, and with an expansive logistics and support network to be able to have their own aircraft leverage off.
None of the industrial risk, and no upfront developmental costs -- only procurement and sustainment costs, which is what most nations want.
Perhaps if you were a nation that wanted to rapidly advance your aerospace industry to be able to produce 5th generation aircraft, then perhaps it would make sense.... but even then, why wouldn't you simply wait for the PLA to buy the land based J-XY/35 variant first, and then express an interest in buying it with co-production and a degree of transfer of technology? Why embark on the additional risk and cost of trying to be the launch customer for a new variant of an aircraft?
(Hint, this is the major reason why the F/A-18L -- the land based variant of the F/A-18A -- never hooked a customer, because no prospective export customer wanted to be the one to front up the costs and risk of developing a new variant, and because Northrop themselves weren't willing to front up the costs, and the US was not buying the F/A-18L either. With no one willing to pay for the full scale development of the aircraft, it simply withered and disappeared, and even customers interested in the F/A-18L proposal simply bought the lower risk F/A-18A with minimal or no modifications from the standard USN version, retaining the folding wings, reinforced structure and landing gear and everything else)

Adapting my previous overview, it would look like this (green, bottom right corner):

View attachment 86547

I see what you are saying but, Saudi wants to invest $100B in their aerospace industry in the next 8 years..

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And 2 years ago Biden was calling MBS a butcher or something like that.

Regarding the RISK you described, the REWARD is export sales.