Re: New Generation Fighter
Richard Fisher's recently posted a new article on Strategycentre.com - one portion mentions the 4th/5th gen fighter. It sums up nicely some nice information on the J-XX (while adding some speculation of his own) that's come to light in the past and in this year (as well as other related technologies)
It's interesting in that he doesn't preaching more F-22's like he usually does, which is a nice change
.
The full article is at
Richard Fisher's recently posted a new article on Strategycentre.com - one portion mentions the 4th/5th gen fighter. It sums up nicely some nice information on the J-XX (while adding some speculation of his own) that's come to light in the past and in this year (as well as other related technologies)
It's interesting in that he doesn't preaching more F-22's like he usually does, which is a nice change
.The full article is at
4th (5th) Generation Fighters
China’s 5th generation (which it calls 4th generation) fighter program has been a matter of intense interest and speculation, for which the PLA and Chinese aerospace corporations have managed to deny much basic information. There is no government budget document, PLA web page or even company brochure which describes this fighter program. Until this year there had been no official statements on this program. So it was a surprise when in late April 2009, just before the 60th Anniversary of the PLA Navy, Commander Admiral Wu Shengli, in a wide ranging speech, listed the PLAN’s requirement for a fighter with “supersonic cruise” capability.[16] Then on the November 8, 2009 edition of CCTV’s program “Face to Face,” PLAAF, Deputy Commander General He Weirong stated that China’s 4th generation fighter would fly “soon” and that this fighter could enter service in “about eight to ten years,” or between 2017 and 2019. General He is also reported to have said the planes in development “will match or exceed the capability of similar jets in existence today.”[17]
Just before General He’s statement a widely cited Chinese Internet source, while not confirmable, stated that a prototype of the 5th generation fighter could start flying in 2010, albeit with a version of the 12-13-ton thrust WS-10A turbo fan in lieu of the not yet ready 15-ton thrust engine. This source also noted that China could acquire up to 300 of these fighters.[18] Reportedly these fighters will have a “4 S” capabilities: stealth, super cruise, super maneuverability and short take off.[19]
While General He’s statement could be viewed as “surprising” in light of Secretary Gate’s July 2009 assessment, it shouldn’t be so. China’s 5th generation fighter program may already be twenty years old, meaning that it should have long been a target for U.S. intelligence monitoring. According to the apparent memoir of a former 611 Aero Design Institute member, in 1989 China started organizing conceptual studies for its “next generation” fighter. Both the Shenyang Aircraft Co. 601 Aero Design Institute and the Chengdu Aircraft Co. 611 Aero Design Institute were then appropriated work in the “2-03” Program. This source also notes that by 1993 China had reached an agreement for engaging Russian consultants from their Central Aerohyrodynamics Institute (TsAGI) and from the Mikoyan Company to study advanced aero designs, knowledge that was shared with the 601 and 611 institutes.[20] Chengdu has also had a long consulting relationship with the Siberian Aeronautical Research Institute (SibNIA), the Siberian branch of TsAGI located in Novosibirsk.[21] SibNIA’s assistance on Chengdu’s J-10 fighter could have also been applied to Chengdu’s 4th/5th generation program.
In addition, 611 Institute engineer cited above was also apparently involved in developing new composite material technologies and structures which were used in the J-10 fighter. These composite technologies apparently benefitted from sending Chengdu engineers to study at Stanford University in the late 1980s,[22] and even having Chengdu-developed composite materials tested in a U.S. commercial laboratory.[23] Since the 1980s it is reasonable to expect that China has learned much more about the composite materials and structures from its experience building composite structures for Boeing and Airbus airliners,[24] and from the Ukraine’s Antonov bureau. In early October 2009 X’ian Aircraft International acquired Austria’s Fischer Advanced Composite Components, a major supplier of airframe and interior composite-based components.[25] An ability to build large composite material airframes and skin of sufficient strength would contribute greatly improve China’s ability to produce stealthy 5th generation aircraft designs, as well as modern, efficient civil and military transports.
Beyond this public data about the 5th generation programs at Shenyang and Chengdu is unsatisfactory. Both are thought to have been working on “heavy” twin-engine stealthy and highly maneuverable designs to compete with U.S. and Russian 5th generation fighters. However, Chinese internet sources, again unconfirmable, have suggested that in the PLA decided in favor of Chengdu’s 5th generation design, giving Shenyang a subcontractor role.[26] Both companies are thought to have at various times tended toward a “canard delta,” with Shenyang first thought to be favoring a “triplane” design and perhaps later a triplane-forward swept wing. Chengdu has usually been associated with a twin-engine canard-delta design. A Chengdu 611 Institute brochure obtained around the November 2002 Zhuhai Airshow included a computer simulation design for an apparent heavy twin-engine canard-delta design which bore some resemblance to the aborted Mikoyan MiG 1.44 5th generation fighter prototype. Reporting from the time of this aircraft’s unveiling in 1999 indicated some Russian interest in selling it to China,[27] but there has been no subsequent reporting to that effect. There have been more recent indicators that both Chengdu and Shenyang have worked with 5th generation concept that starts with a flat delta shaped airframe core, to which are attached canard controls, wings and stabilizers.
There is also a possibility that China could have a program for other 5th generation fighters, perhaps to include a medium-weight fighter to compliment its reported heavyweight fighter program. In early 2005 a Chinese industry source told the author that the Chengdu Aircraft Co. was considering a “F-35 like” fighter program. That would have been a period during which Chinese defense concerns were finalizing their programs for the next Five-Year Plan to begin in 2006, but it is not known whether such a medium-weight fighter program was approved. However, at the November 2006 Zhuhai Airshow the Shenyang Aircraft Co. revealed a radical canard-triplane forward swept wing fighter design. But its compelling feature was that it had one engine, an indication that there may be a medium-weight 5th generation fighter program as well. By mentioning the Lockheed-Martin F-35, there is at least the implication that a potential Chinese medium-weight fighter could be built in multiple versions, to include a short-take off and vertical landing model (STOVL), much like the F-35B.
In addition, it is possible that China is using its 5th generation program to move beyond into the next generation of aerial combat. Since the 2006 Zhuhai show, and most recently at the 60th anniversary Chinese Aviation Museum exhibit, the PLA has displayed models of the Shenyang “Dark Sword” supersonic unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) concept. At the 2006 Zhuhai show a brief identification plaque noted it had a counter-air mission. While sharing the potential high maneuverability of the Shenyang canard-fighter concept (the latest model appears to illustrate a thrust vectoring system), an air-superiority UCAV is currently an unrealistic prospect given that computers have yet to match the combat flexibility and instinct of the human brain. However, the Dark Sword conceivably could operate in support of manned 5th generation fighters, undertaking more narrowly defined electronic or kinetic attack missions while the manned fighters secure the airspace.
At the April 2009 Navy Association Convention Boeing unveiled at concept for a “6th generation” fighter designed to be made in manned and unmanned versions. Boeing’s concept was intended to preview its potential offering for a future U.S. Navy A/F-XX program that is yet unfunded.[28] The U.S. Navy is already leading the development of unmanned carrier-based combat aircraft with the Northrop-Grumman X-47B, due to fly in early 2009. Also, in December 2009 a U.S. Air Force official noted studies were beginning that may lead to a USAF 6th generation fighter.[29] But at this point it is valid to consider that the PLA may be ahead of the U.S. in the development of a 6th generation fighter, inasmuch as it may be considering the development of a paired manned and unmanned 5th generation fighter, one apparent major goal for a 6th generation design.
China may be making steady progress in the range of supporting technologies needed to realize its 5th generation combat aircraft ambitions, to include advanced radar, electronics, stealth, weapons and engines. In early 2009 a new version of the Chengdu J-10, called the “J-10B,” began testing. One curious feature it displays is an apparent “cant” to the radar bulkhead, which could represent the appearance of a new electronically scanned array radar.[30] In 1997 Flight International reported that a new Phazotron RP-35 electronically-scanned array radar was being offered to China to beat out an Israeli radar also being offered for the J-10.[31] A more recent Russian report suggests that China may have acquired two of these radar “in the mid 1990s,” which became the basis for MiG-35’s Phazotron’s Zhuk-AE active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, which has a range of 160km and can attack 4 to 6 targets simultaneously.[32] A Chinese source suggests that China’s 607 Institute completed an X-band AESA fighter radar in 2008.[33] China’s new radar is expected to be an indigenous system, but influenced by Russian, Israeli and perhaps Italian technology. If China has developed such an AESA radar, this would constitute a major breakthrough for their aircraft radar technology. It would also mean that similar or improved ASEA radar may equip their future 5th generation fighters.
At the 2008 Zhuhai show China displayed an advanced large-screen cockpit display, which could assist “data fusion” as does a similar U.S. cockpit display being built for the F-35. A U.S. source noted to the author that such displays are very difficult to develop and manufacture because they must be light-weight and survive the stresses of modern air combat.[34] A brochure for the Chengdu FC-1 distributed at the recent 2009 Dubai Airshow mentions it can be equipped with a Helmet Mounted Display (HMD), which Chinese officials confirmed was available.[35] An upgraded HMD system is one of the key advances offered by the F-35 and other 4.5 generation fighters, but is not yet incorporated into the F-22.
For many years China has also shown an interest in aircraft stealth technologies and next-generation weapons. The latest models of the Chengdu FC-1 use airframe shaping and diverterless intakes to aid stealth. A U.S. official recently conceded to Aviation Week that China has had many years to study U.S. and European stealth technology. Since the 2002 Zhuhai Show Chinese air-to-air missile (AAM) maker Luoyang has mentioned its “next generation” AAM. In 2007 internet source images appeared of a new high off-boresight and highly maneuverable AAM appeared, showing a marked similarity to the South African Denel 5th generation A-Darter AAM. In a recent exchange with the author, South African sources admitted that Denel and Luoyang had explored possible AAM cooperation, but that Denel decided not to proceed as they could not profit from such cooperation. However, they noted that Luoyang was very interested in and influenced by the A-Darter design. Without South African help, these sources estimated that Luoyang could make this AAM in about five years.[36]
