kwaigonegin
Colonel
So This Photo Was Not A Fake Photo!
hhmmmm dude.. do I need to lend you my glasses? right off the bat you can see the canopy and tailplane being totally different!
J-20... The New Generation Fighter
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hhmmmm dude.. do I need to lend you my glasses? right off the bat you can see the canopy and tailplane being totally different!
Quickie
Colonel
I would say it's quite close to the J-20. The general shapes are there, like the side intakes with DSI, the canard, the shape of the wings and tail. Even the canopy can be seen as a whole piece if you ignore the black thick line. Probably it was the first attempt at a controlled leak but not quite successful. Among many fan arts of the J-XX, no one could've known this's the closest to the real thing.
Check out Huitong website. When comes to China military reliability. I put him the foremost. He usually do his homwork before posting it.
Roger604
Senior Member
I think it's clear that PLAAF structure will undergo a very dramatic shift in the next 5 years.
I don't think J-10B will make it into service. Instead, the J-20 program (5th generation multirole fighter) is moving much faster than expected. I think J-20 will enter service with FWS10A engines by 2013 (possibly even earlier in late 2012). It appears the Central Military Commission wants the J-20 ready fast for patrol of South China Sea. Anti-ship will be a very important mission for J-20.
This suggests J-10 production will end earlier than expected. They won't order more AL-31FN. FWS10A might be used for later production blocks and when existing J-10 need engine replacement.
In addition to the J-20 multirole fighter, CAC might also have a pure air-superiority fighter in the works. Progress on this will depend on WS-15's progress. If the WS-15 is ready by 2015, the air-superiority fighter should enter service not long after that.
When WS-15 is ready (around 2015), they will also equip the second block of J-20. Then they can get rid of the ventral fins (not good for RCS).
On the flankers side, the transition from Russian flankers to J-11B / J-11BS was delayed for two years because of engine problems but obviously they are now cranking them out (equipped with FWS10). But already, PLAAF thinks J-11B / J-11BS is not good enough.
That is why SAC will be making the stealthy flanker J-16. It will be like a Su-35BM with RCS reduction. So, J-11B / J-11BS series production may be very short (stopping before 2013 probably). The J-20 can actually take over most of its role but flankers are obviously cheaper.
Now that J-20 has edged into territory formerly occupied by flanker, there is a question what will be the next heavy tactical aircraft. I've read speculation CAC will convert J-20 into an even more "fighter-bomber" like aircraft -- take the existing fuselage and replace the canards / wings / vertical stabilizers with something resembling FB-22.
But SAC wants to defend its position in heavy tactical aircraft, so it is pushing out a radical, true 5th generation heavy fighter bomber. This would be the successor to stealthy flanker J-16, making the J-16 merely a stop-gap solution / backup plan in case of delays.
Meanwhile, the old JH-7, J-7, J-8, Q-5 etc will be replaced by a cheaper variant of JF-17 using domestic WS-13. Tphuang suggested this and it makes sense.
So, we will have
2012 Stealthy flanker J-16 enters service, J-11B / J-11BS stop production, super-cheap version of JF-17 enters service to replace old JH7, J-7, J-8, Q-5
2013 J-20 multirole enters service, J-10 stop production
2015 J-20 gets upgrade using WS-15, next generation heavy fighter-bomber enters service (might be CAC or SAC), J-16 stops production
2017 CAC air superiority fighter enters service with WS-15
Then by 2020 PLAAF will have large numbers of 5th generation in multirole, air superiority and heavy fighter-bombers. The remaining force is JF-17 for numbers plus legacy J-10s, J-11B / J-11BS / J-16.
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antiterror13
Brigadier
I think you are a little bit over confident of PLAAF ... perhaps your prediction + 2-3 years would be more realistic
No matter how fast the PLAAF modernizes it will never be able to produce J-20s fast enough to fill its requirements. The J-10B and J-11B will most certainly continue to be produced to replace older fighters. They don't even have enough of those right now to have an effective modernized fleet.
Roger604
Senior Member
Then they can get JF-17 to fill in the numbers, replace the J-7, J-8, etc. (This is Tphuang's idea, not mine.)
I'm 90% sure J-20 program is moving much faster than we thought. There is no room for J-10B in the timeline.
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with stealth aircraft like J-20,it mean that J-20 could perform long range attack against US CV without being detect by conventional radar,USAF already demonstrated this capability when F-117 and later F-22 able to "shoot down" E-3 aircraft without being detected by escorting F-15C.
for year,there's rumor about this J-20.it is possbile that original concept uses chin air intake and 2-D TVC similiar to F-22.for stealthness and IR reduction.
or will production model abandone canard in favor horizontal tail fin?
for year,there's rumor about this J-20.it is possbile that original concept uses chin air intake and 2-D TVC similiar to F-22.for stealthness and IR reduction.
or will production model abandone canard in favor horizontal tail fin?
I dont think its moving faster than expected at all, its right on pace to achieve IOC around 2017-18, just as previously expected.
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