Re: New Generation Fighter
Well thanks to Red Moon, Roger, Siege Crossbow and Mwyrum for your answers (apologies if I have missed anyone).
Well OK lets go with what it says on the tin and agree it is a long range and long endurance Air Superiority Fighter. I look a bit askance at it replacing things such as the Flankers as that seems madness when all the bulk of J7 and early J8 variants remain in service . Yes it is a bee in my bonnet as until this lot is replaced with modern fully "Informationalised" aircraft, I just can't see if the PLAAF is up simply for modernisation or wholesale redesign.
That being said lets assume that what we have seen is pretty much what goes into production.
First Question: How many units?
To me the J20 looks big and expensive - the true top predator of the PLAAF. That's fine, but suggests that this is not going to be China's F35 more of its F22 (saying that I seriously doubt if the F35 is going to be America's F35 on account of budget constraints - which although off topic will have an effect on Chinese planning).
My guess is that the PLAAF are planning no more than a 100 units of this monster and the reason is simple. Why use this expensive aircraft in ways that compromise its key features when they can be done by cheaper and more appropriate aircraft?
I think that as a Stealth Fighter with a long range and long endurance, it will carry a large number of Air to Air Weapons and be a critical component in offensive force packaging. Let other aircraft carry the Cruise Missiles and ASM's etc, the J-20 can just shadow them or hover in the vicinity, invisibly and pounce on the enemy as they come to intercept and investigate. All the better when you think of it as it means that the enemy will come to you and you will not need to waste time looking for them.
Other missions I can see would be attacking enemy Air Defence Systems and also stalking enemy AWACS and Refuellers.
To make this plane however the main stay of the future PLAAF would be prohibitively expensive overkill, especially when you consider the likely non appearance of many of the proposed units that the J-20 would be designed to counter.
Lets not forget about the very capable Flankers and J10's that China has. otherwise you may just make them jealous about the new baby
Bedsides many aspects of these new technologies can easily find their way into smaller platforms for less demanding fronts and contingencies.
Very good analysis.
Although I don't think the J20 is intended to 'replace' anything. Well not in the one for one swop sense of the word.
The likely capabilities of this bird would be so revolutionary (exactly as the USAF found when they first started playing around with the Raptor) that I think the PLAAF will re-order its entire structure to create a unique new position and role for it to best use its 5th gen attributes.
This means that the J20 will directly or indirectly take over a lot of the missions currently undertaken by the likes of the J8, J10 and J11. These planes would in turn shuffle and adjust their role within the PLAAF/PLANAF's order of battle to take over missions previously undertaken by J7s, J8s and Q5s etc, and ultimately, it will be these lowest end fighters that will be replaced.
However, since the J20 won't simply be taking over their previous duties, that is why I think it is necessary to stress the importance of the subtlety in definition.
In a way, I think the US has kinda shot itself in the foot by starting the 5th gen arms race and then getting bogged down with the watered down F35 while canning F22 production.
5th Generation fighters are true 'game changers', as they completely overturn all the old rules. Since the USAF was top dog by a mile under the old rules, they actually stand to loose the most by forcing everyone onto this new, more even playing field.
The J20 is like the ultimate 'assassin's mace' weapon for the air force. They can fairly easily and consistently penetrate air defenses impregnable to conventional fighters and hit enemy force multipliers like AWACS, tankers or even runways, fuel stores and aircraft shelters.
While F22s could arguably have the same effect, you have to remember that the PLAAF is far less reliant on those force multipliers than the USAF, and as such, in the event that both sides managed to wipe out each other's force multiplier assets, the PLAAF will still come out on top as they would have suffered a far smaller loss.
What more, the more I look at the J20, the more I am convinced that CAC has designed it to minimize its reliance on force multipliers like AWACS, tanks and such. That would go a long way to explaining its unusually huge size - that it is designed to still be able to operate effectively even without tanker support.
As has already been mentioned, its radar and avionics should allow it to serve as a mini-AWACS in the even the actual things are taken out.
I think the PLAAF will use the J20 as almost a terror weapon. It should be good at maintaining supercruise for extended periods, so they will zip in, kill some high importance asset, and then bug out before the enemy has a chance to respond.
They will move in and pick holes in the enemy's defenses, opening the way for swarms of UCAVs and 4th gen (western standard) fighters to move in and make their numbers count.
I think tankers would be the first priority target, as J20s should be able to easily kill them with effectively no risk and a high confidence of success.
With its taker fleet down, the F22's combat range and effectiveness would suffer greatly, especially if they are operating from places like Japan or Guam.
I think the PLA's main goal would be area denial to USN CBGs. Without F22 support, USN FA18s would not be in a happy place even if China cannot sink the carriers. Even the F35 will probably suffer against the J20.
I am unconvinced about how effective fifth gen fighters will be against AWACS targets tbh.
The closer you fly to a monstrously powerful radar, the more likely it is that the radar will detect even a stealth target. Would a fifth gen be able to reliably get within missile range of an active AWACS without being detected? Probably only the USAF knows that, but Russia and China will probably have their answers soon.
Secondly, provided a fifth gen can get within missile range of an AWACS undetected, how likely is that missile to hit? With modern phase arrays, it would almost be child's play to turn the AWACS radar into a powerful EW weapon. If they detected an incoming missile, I think there is a good chance a modern heavy AWACS would be able to direct enough focused radar energy at the missile to fry its radar seeker, or blind it at least.
With supercruise, it wouldn't take that long to boost up close and personal and use WRV AAMs or even the gun to end the AWACS, but you must assume such high priority targets to warrant their own 5th gen escorts. You expose yourself in attacking the AWACS to potential ambush by enemy stealth escorts by attack AWACS.
Depending on the weapons bays, the J20 may also make a decent penetration fighter bomber. A few J20s armed for SEAD and the rest packing SDBs and medium/small AG missiles internally could cause a lot of damage to critical based infrastructure, and maybe even catch enemy 5th gens on the ground if they are really lucky/
