J-20... The New Generation Fighter III

Deino said:

IMO there's nothing wrong on that statement even if some here surely expect the first operational regiment to be operational, and that for sure will not happen as soon as some might hope.

If You simply compare with the J-10 then the J-10 officially "entered PLAAF-service" (I hope I'm not completely wrong) with the first aircraft delivered to a test regiment at the CFTE.

Deino

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Even that's the case, the final design must have been comfirmed, engine comfirmed and radar comfirmed.. When he mean 'although not this year'.. It more or less tell us, very high chances, it will be 2013 or the furthest time... 2014.

Same period I predicted.

Just my 2 cents: I always thought that the public unveiling of J20 was only the moment when they stopped to use AL31 and switched to WS10 engines.The plane probably was flying before January 2011 on AL31. Secondly, of course would be fantastic a 2014 induction, but first we need radar testing demonstration, weapons testing and such.
Finally, my conclusion from Song's paper is that J20 in current state had never been built with WS15 or an F119-analog in mind, but with current generations of chinese engines instead: J20 seems a tentative of not delaying too much chinese fifth generation plane due to backwardnees of chinese engines compared to western ones. That could futher imply that:
1- maybe the plane will enter in service in mid of this decade with current engines and
2 - in a distant future, when WS15 will be ready (let's say around or after 2020) J20 in current state could never receive WS15, but with WS15 in mind chinese engineer will instead modify the plane making a J20b or similar new plane trying to overcome J20 weakness, ranging from stealth (canards?) to the probably biggest J20 compromise with other fifth gen analogues, the poor wing area that decrease stability at low speed. Not that now I'm speculating on a not-existant new J20 when the J20 itself is far from been inducted, I want only point that when and if china finally catch-up with west in engines tech, chinese aero engineer won't face anymore the limitations and headaches that leaded them to design current J20 configuration described by Song, Sweeteman, and likes.

Satellite picture using the J-10 wingspan as a measurement. That also means the J-10's length is inaccurate; the J-10's length includes the probe, and if the probe is taken out, the length drops to around 15m or 14m.

Re: Kyanges.

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I think an aggressive estimate for the J-20's DoI is 2015 or 2016. Earlier than than; well, no. In 2015, the J-20 can match Rafales and leave the poor Indians hanging; you have 4.5+ generation fighters, the Chinese have a generation 4.5+ / generation 5 fighter ready to take you out.

If the engines prove a problem; the Chinese can just opt to accelerate their time table and import Russian engines for the J-20A series, then switch to WS-15 for the J-20B, which may manage to omit tailfins and vertical stabilizers for something that's vaguely generation 6.

The big limiter on early deployment, however, is the lack of Chinese AESA. Engines can be solved by importing from Russia, but the Russian AESAs are not mature or reliable, nor would the Russians be inclined to provide the J-20s with AESA before the PAK-FA is up in the air. The engines, on the other hand, can be bought or ripped off; the Chinese can just take a few consignments of Su-35Ss, rip out the engines and spares, and retrofit them to the J-20. The Russians can't deny the Chinese that; the Su-35Ss are very profitable due to their unwarranted expense, and for the Chinese, once the J-20s are working on domestic engines, the Su-35Ss can still function as multi-role strike fighters.

Inst said:

Satellite picture using the J-10 wingspan as a measurement. That also means the J-10's length is inaccurate; the J-10's length includes the probe, and if the probe is taken out, the length drops to around 15m or 14m.

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Satellite pictures tend to have a higher margin of error given low pixel count.

If the PLAAF is desperate to have J20s operationally deployed ASAP, and do not want to wait for the WS15, they could easily just clear the plane with the current engines, but leave room in the airframe to allow for a retrofit of the WS15 when that becomes operational, and that looks like what they have done with the J20 prototype as the engine housing is a lot thicker than the engine nozzles indicating the possibility of upsizing the engines. The PLAAF may have no intention of fielding the J20 until it is 100% and the mods are just required to allow the J20 to fly with its current engines.

The point is that whether the J20 has actually been designed with the current engines in mind, or if it is just flying with the current engines as a placeholder, if there is the will, the PLAAF could field it in its current configurations and accept that it won't be up to fully specs until it gets the engines it was designed for.

Not saying that that is what I think the PLAAF will do, but I can certainly see he benefits of doing so.

1) The J20 testing programme can carry on without having to worry about waiting for the WS15 to be ready.
2) You have an operational 5th gen many years before you would waiting for a WS15 powered one. This allows you to train up pilots, ground crew and develop tactics years earlier with all the benefits that brings.
3) They could afford to be more relaxed with the J20B testing schedule, allowing CAC to take on more projects instead of focusing all of their best and brightest on this one project. The J20B would also be more likely to benefit from new developments and breakthroughs as there would be less pressure to have it finished. Although that can be a double edged sword, just looks at the LCA.

Inst said:

If the engines prove a problem; the Chinese can just opt to accelerate their time table and import Russian engines for the J-20A series, then switch to WS-15 for the J-20B, which may manage to omit tailfins and vertical stabilizers for something that's vaguely generation 6.

The big limiter on early deployment, however, is the lack of Chinese AESA. Engines can be solved by importing from Russia, but the Russian AESAs are not mature or reliable, nor would the Russians be inclined to provide the J-20s with AESA before the PAK-FA is up in the air. The engines, on the other hand, can be bought or ripped off; the Chinese can just take a few consignments of Su-35Ss, rip out the engines and spares, and retrofit them to the J-20. The Russians can't deny the Chinese that; the Su-35Ss are very profitable due to their unwarranted expense, and for the Chinese, once the J-20s are working on domestic engines, the Su-35Ss can still function as multi-role strike fighters.

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Quite the contrary is true. china´s air industry big weakness is engines. Which isnt surprising, because it requires a lot of time and investment.

I don't think they have problem with WS-15, from the news and evidence. WS-15 is progressing very well. Super cruise is one of the must criteria for a 5th of Chinese fighter. PLAAF usually will not compromise easily. The operational J-20, which I believe will fly with WS-15 engines.

The fact a big shot of cpc more of less confirm the induction date do near means everything is progressing very well. In fact, we might not even see J-10B. Straight away upgrade from J-10A to J-20. That is why J-10B has not inducted into service. J-10B might really just be a test bed.

Lion said:

I don't think they have problem with WS-15, from the news and evidence. WS-15 is progressing very well. Super cruise is one of the must criteria for a 5th of Chinese fighter. PLAAF usually will not compromise easily. The operational J-20, which I believe will fly with WS-15 engines.

The fact a big shot of cpc more of less confirm the induction date do near means everything is progressing very well. In fact, we might not even see J-10B. Straight away upgrade from J-10A to J-20. That is why J-10B has not inducted into service. J-10B might really just be a test bed.

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There are 4 flying J10B prototypes at the moment. There is no way it is a test bed programme.

Even if the J20 is ready for service today, the PLAAF would still need a J10B class aircraft, as there is no way they can afford to have the entire air force flying J20s.

The J20 and J10 are completely different classes of aircraft, and having one does not negate the need for the other. If there is one fighter type directly threatened by the J20, it would be the J11B. That is probably why the J15 was the sole horse running in the PLANAF carrier fighter comp. As incompetent as SAC has been in the last few decades, the PLA is still loathed to have any one company monopolize the Chinese domestic fighter industry, as a little health competition helps keep everyone honest and sharp. So they will throw SAC some bones to keep them alive, but hungry, so hopefully they would be able to offer more competition to CAC, and the PLAAF benefits as a result.

Something to add, if you all think the prototype at chengdu is not PR stunt, PLAAF must requirement for J-20 to super ruse and the fact, it's going to induct soon. Is it possible the silver nozzle engine seem on J-20 is WS-15?

Lion said:

Something to add, if you all think the prototype at chengdu is not PR stunt, PLAAF must requirement for J-20 to super ruse and the fact, it's going to induct soon. Is it possible the silver nozzle engine seem on J-20 is WS-15?

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It's not going to be inducted soon, and I think all evidence indicates those engines are AL-31s. Still it's possible for the plane not to have that requirement fulfilled.