J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

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Gloire_bb

Gloire_bb

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tphuang said:
Why is it not necessary? Overwhelming numerical advantage would be one way to achieve hard power that china needs.

China shouldn't use USAF as guideline on how many j20s it needs. If it can produce 100/year at lower unit cost, then it should do so.
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The key word here is 'cold war'.
The current US dedicated air superiority fleet is half that number, and more than half of it - retiring F-15Cs.

The second threat is overinvesting: while having a sudden qualitative edge through the 2020s is a boon, late 2020s are likely to bring in NGADs(two of them).
plawolf said:
If you have more air dominance fighters than needed to achieve air dominance in a fight, you can always use them to delivery air to ground munitions, especially if said air dominance fighters are VLO. OTOH, if you don’t have enough air dominance fighters and the enemy achieve air dominance, all your bombers are just really expensive targets for the enemy now.
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The idea is, multi-role fighters aren't exactly much weaker than (more) dedicated types. For example, I think that's one of the reasons why J-11D died (and J-16 went on).
The difference is more towards the effects of specialization - and those are ultimately secondary.

More dedicated types can give an advantage at, say, secondary theaters - where the theater capacity is limited (you can deploy only so much), or, say, there is not enough force multiplying assets.

Basically - overinvesting in J-20As IMHO should be done only in case we really, really fear that late 2020s may be interesting. Otherwise, they shall take their organic spot in PLAAF, and leave more space for a more affordable type.
 
Deino

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Kalec said:
…

Btw Changchun airshow is releasing their tickets, hopefully they could send some fresh J-20 out of production line to give us an idea on how far they have been.
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when does the show open it’s doors?
 
L

latenlazy

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Gloire_bb said:
.

Basically - overinvesting in J-20As IMHO should be done only in case we really, really fear that late 2020s may be interesting. Otherwise, they shall take their organic spot in PLAAF, and leave more space for a more affordable type.
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That is indeed the fear informing procurement planning.
 
tphuang

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Gloire_bb said:
The key word here is 'cold war'.
The current US dedicated air superiority fleet is half that number, and more than half of it - retiring F-15Cs.

The second threat is overinvesting: while having a sudden qualitative edge through the 2020s is a boon, late 2020s are likely to bring in NGADs(two of them).
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What makes you think China doesn't have the money to expand J-20 production as well as providing investment for 6th gen?

In fact, ramping up production for a J-20B using WS-15 gives PLAAF a leg up vs USAF/USN, since F-35 block 4 isn't scheduled to go into service until 2029. J-20B should represent a big increase in capability in stealth, situation awareness, sensor fusion, multi-role & controlling UCAV. It's a precusor to how a 6th gen would operate. Given that, it would be good to have as many pilots trained with this as possible before your 6th gen arrives

also 6 year induction period for NGAD is very optimistic given that they may not have picked a design yet.

Keep in mind that cost reduction is only achieved through production expansion and build up of supply chain. Once you have factories set up, if you do not use it, that still costs money to keep around. It seems really bad idea to do that.

That's why when we discuss CAC and SAC factory expansion, we always talk about what aircraft will be produced from them. You don't expand factories significantly without using them.
 
D

Derpy

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Gloire_bb said:
Is a dedicated heavy air superiority force this big necessary in the first place?
The Cold War United States tended to go for the 750 as a production goal.
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The imagined battlefield during the Cold war was mainly Europe with plenty of bases and the enemy basically "next door".
This meant small multirole fighters could take on the Air to Air role without being hindered by their short range, augmenting the dedicated heavy air superiority fleet.
The distances over the west pacific is much less forgiving and favors large twin engine planes. You also have the simple reality of being limited to what you can build, The J-16 or J10 can not replace The J-20 in the air to air role in a similar fashion that a cold war F-16 could replace an F-15.

If you tally up what U.S and plausible allies is expected to field by 2030 then it's hard to argue it would be excessive..
 
B

banjex

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Gloire_bb said:
It can (lines that easily produced more fighters of a single type are still there). The same is true for "57" production - because production is ultimately but a function of designed line capability, and ability to sustain it. What will it do with them then, though?

PLAAF has quite a requirement for J-20A(in several hundred, perhaps even high hundreds-numbered standing force). VKS fighter force literally has to expand to absorb more, and doing that isn't exactly free. Especially with heavy fighters.
Especially now, when they do that fighting thing, and their maintenance expenditure is up from an already high peacetime pricetag.
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gelgoog said:
Russia has four factories which produce fighters. KnAAPO (Su-35, Su-57), NAPO (Su-34), Irkutsk Aviation Plant (Su-30), and Sokol Aircraft Plant (MiG-35, Yak-130). Each factory could probably produce two dozen aircraft a year if they wanted to. Right now a significant amount of available factory capacity is being used for aircraft upgrades. Like the Su-34M, Su-30SM2, and MiG-31BM programs. Some new Su-35, Su-57, Yak-130, and Su-34 or Su-30 aircraft are being built however. My guess is they are currently building 40+ new aircraft a year for the Russian Air Force.
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Aware of every single item here, been following the Russian military for over 10 years. I have serious doubts about their ability to finance production, plus old techs and engineers retiring, plants needing retooling, lack of pilots and old basing infrastructure.
 
56860

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tphuang said:
What makes you think China doesn't have the money to expand J-20 production as well as providing investment for 6th gen?

In fact, ramping up production for a J-20B using WS-15 gives PLAAF a leg up vs USAF/USN, since F-35 block 4 isn't scheduled to go into service until 2029. J-20B should represent a big increase in capability in stealth, situation awareness, sensor fusion, multi-role & controlling UCAV. It's a precusor to how a 6th gen would operate. Given that, it would be good to have as many pilots trained with this as possible before your 6th gen arrives

also 6 year induction period for NGAD is very optimistic given that they may not have picked a design yet.

Keep in mind that cost reduction is only achieved through production expansion and build up of supply chain. Once you have factories set up, if you do not use it, that still costs money to keep around. It seems really bad idea to do that.

That's why when we discuss CAC and SAC factory expansion, we always talk about what aircraft will be produced from them. You don't expand factories significantly without using them.
Click to expand...
An annual production rate of 55-60 in 2023 makes sense in the context of an emerging J-20B. We know the WS-15 is in LRIP. We have pictures of the new J-20B model. CAC could be capping production of the J-20A in anticipation of the J-20B, which represents a significant increase in capabilities.
 
Blitzo

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56860 said:
An annual production rate of 55-60 in 2023 makes sense in the context of an emerging J-20B. We know the WS-15 is in LRIP. We have pictures of the new J-20B model. CAC could be capping production of the J-20A in anticipation of the J-20B, which represents a significant increase in capabilities.
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There are lots of ways in which any sort of annual production rate this year (whether it be 55-60 or 100ish) can be rationalized in context of existing known rumours and trends.

But as @Kalec mentioned in 7513 and 7514, if these claims are not being worth taken seriously to begin with, then all of this is moot.

That is to say, 伏尔戈星图's claims may well be incorrect to begin with and not worth our time.
 
BoraTas

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Gloire_bb said:
The key word here is 'cold war'.
The current US dedicated air superiority fleet is half that number, and more than half of it - retiring F-15Cs.

The second threat is overinvesting: while having a sudden qualitative edge through the 2020s is a boon, late 2020s are likely to bring in NGADs(two of them).

The idea is, multi-role fighters aren't exactly much weaker than (more) dedicated types. For example, I think that's one of the reasons why J-11D died (and J-16 went on).
The difference is more towards the effects of specialization - and those are ultimately secondary.

More dedicated types can give an advantage at, say, secondary theaters - where the theater capacity is limited (you can deploy only so much), or, say, there is not enough force multiplying assets.

Basically - overinvesting in J-20As IMHO should be done only in case we really, really fear that late 2020s may be interesting. Otherwise, they shall take their organic spot in PLAAF, and leave more space for a more affordable type.
Click to expand...
I disagree here. This is short selling the F-35. With its less than -40 dBsm frontal RCS, largeish radar, networking capabilities, and large fuel tanks it is a very potent fighter. And the US has 500+ of them already. Just looking at F-22 and F-15 would be very deceptive. Other than this, there are no reasons to think the J-20 production is money starving the 6th gen research. China ideally needs to be capable of substantial offensive counter-air up to 4000 km from its shores. Only then it can starve the US military out of most options in West Pacific.
 
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